Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling
The decadal predictability of three-dimensional Atlantic Ocean anomalies is examined in a coupled global climate model (HadCM3) using a Linear Inverse Modelling (LIM) approach. It is found that the evolution of temperature and salinity in the Atlantic, and the strength of the meridional overturning...
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2009
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Online Access: | https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/1439/ https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2720.1 |
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:1439 2024-05-12T08:07:22+00:00 Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling Hawkins, Edward Sutton, Rowan Timothy 2009 https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/1439/ https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2720.1 unknown American Meteorological Society Hawkins, E. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000949.html> orcid:0000-0001-9477-3677 and Sutton, R. T. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000057.html> orcid:0000-0001-8345-8583 (2009) Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling. Journal of Climate, 22 (14). pp. 3960-3978. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2720.1 <https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2720.1> 551 Geology hydrology meteorology Article PeerReviewed 2009 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2720.1 2024-04-17T14:41:32Z The decadal predictability of three-dimensional Atlantic Ocean anomalies is examined in a coupled global climate model (HadCM3) using a Linear Inverse Modelling (LIM) approach. It is found that the evolution of temperature and salinity in the Atlantic, and the strength of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), can be effectively described by a linear dynamical system forced by white noise. The forecasts produced using this linear model are more skillful than other reference forecasts for several decades. Furthermore, significant non-normal amplification is found under several different norms. The regions from which this growth occurs are found to be fairly shallow and located in the far North Atlantic. Initially, anomalies in the Nordic Seas impact the MOC, and the anomalies then grow to fill the entire Atlantic basin, especially at depth, over one to three decades. It is found that the structure of the optimal initial condition for amplification is sensitive to the norm employed, but the initial growth seems to be dominated by MOC-related basin scale changes, irrespective of the choice of norm. The consistent identification of the far North Atlantic as the most sensitive region for small perturbations suggests that additional observations in this region would be optimal for constraining decadal climate predictions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Nordic Seas North Atlantic CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Journal of Climate 22 14 3960 3978 |
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CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
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551 Geology hydrology meteorology |
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551 Geology hydrology meteorology Hawkins, Edward Sutton, Rowan Timothy Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling |
topic_facet |
551 Geology hydrology meteorology |
description |
The decadal predictability of three-dimensional Atlantic Ocean anomalies is examined in a coupled global climate model (HadCM3) using a Linear Inverse Modelling (LIM) approach. It is found that the evolution of temperature and salinity in the Atlantic, and the strength of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), can be effectively described by a linear dynamical system forced by white noise. The forecasts produced using this linear model are more skillful than other reference forecasts for several decades. Furthermore, significant non-normal amplification is found under several different norms. The regions from which this growth occurs are found to be fairly shallow and located in the far North Atlantic. Initially, anomalies in the Nordic Seas impact the MOC, and the anomalies then grow to fill the entire Atlantic basin, especially at depth, over one to three decades. It is found that the structure of the optimal initial condition for amplification is sensitive to the norm employed, but the initial growth seems to be dominated by MOC-related basin scale changes, irrespective of the choice of norm. The consistent identification of the far North Atlantic as the most sensitive region for small perturbations suggests that additional observations in this region would be optimal for constraining decadal climate predictions. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hawkins, Edward Sutton, Rowan Timothy |
author_facet |
Hawkins, Edward Sutton, Rowan Timothy |
author_sort |
Hawkins, Edward |
title |
Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling |
title_short |
Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling |
title_full |
Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling |
title_fullStr |
Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling |
title_full_unstemmed |
Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling |
title_sort |
decadal predictability of the atlantic ocean in a coupled gcm: forecast skill and optimal perturbations using linear inverse modelling |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/1439/ https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2720.1 |
genre |
Nordic Seas North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Nordic Seas North Atlantic |
op_relation |
Hawkins, E. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000949.html> orcid:0000-0001-9477-3677 and Sutton, R. T. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000057.html> orcid:0000-0001-8345-8583 (2009) Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling. Journal of Climate, 22 (14). pp. 3960-3978. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2720.1 <https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2720.1> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2720.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
22 |
container_issue |
14 |
container_start_page |
3960 |
op_container_end_page |
3978 |
_version_ |
1798850020947001344 |