Potential predictability of rapid changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

We explore the potential predictability of rapid changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) using a coupled global climate model (HadCM3). Rapid changes in the temperature and salinity of surface water in the Nordic Seas, and the flow of dense water through Denmark Strait, are...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical Research Letters
Main Authors: Hawkins, Ed, Sutton, Rowan
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: American Geophysical Union 2008
Subjects:
551 Geology
hydrology
meteorology
Denmark Strait
Nordic Seas
Online Access:https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/1287/
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/1287/4/1287grl24641.pdf
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034059
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Summary:We explore the potential predictability of rapid changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) using a coupled global climate model (HadCM3). Rapid changes in the temperature and salinity of surface water in the Nordic Seas, and the flow of dense water through Denmark Strait, are found to be precursors to rapid changes in the model's MOC, with a lead time of around 10 years. The mechanism proposed to explain this potential predictability relies on the development of density anomalies in the Nordic Seas which propagate through Denmark Strait and along the deep western boundary current, affecting the overturning. These rapid changes in the MOC have significant, and widespread, climate impacts which are potentially predictable a few years ahead. Whilst the flow through Denmark Strait is too strong in HadCM3, the presence of such potential predictability motivates the monitoring of water properties in the Nordic Seas and Denmark Strait.

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