River flow in the near future: a global perspective in the context of a high-emission climate change scenario
There is high confidence that global warming intensifies all components of the global water cycle. This work investigates the possible effects of global warming on river flows worldwide in the coming decades. We conducted 18 global hydrological simulations to assess how river flows are projected to...
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Online Access: | https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/116618/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/116618/1/hess-28-2179-2024.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2179-2024 |
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:116618 2024-06-23T07:50:15+00:00 River flow in the near future: a global perspective in the context of a high-emission climate change scenario Müller, Omar V. McGuire, Patrick Vidale, Pier Luigi Hawkins, Ed 2024-05-23 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/116618/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/116618/1/hess-28-2179-2024.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2179-2024 en eng EGU https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/116618/1/hess-28-2179-2024.pdf Müller, O. V. orcid:0000-0001-9943-8368 , McGuire, P. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90008573.html> orcid:0000-0001-6592-4966 , Vidale, P. L. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000796.html> orcid:0000-0002-1800-8460 and Hawkins, E. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000949.html> orcid:0000-0001-9477-3677 (2024) River flow in the near future: a global perspective in the context of a high-emission climate change scenario. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 28 (10). pp. 2179-2201. ISSN 1607-7938 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2179-2024 <https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2179-2024> cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2024 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2179-2024 2024-06-11T15:12:43Z There is high confidence that global warming intensifies all components of the global water cycle. This work investigates the possible effects of global warming on river flows worldwide in the coming decades. We conducted 18 global hydrological simulations to assess how river flows are projected to change in the near future (2015–2050) compared to the recent past (1950–2014). The simulations are forced by runoff from the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs), which assume a high-emission scenario for the projections. The assessment includes estimating the signal-to-noise () ratio and the time of emergence (ToE) of all the rivers in the world. Consistently with the water cycle intensification, the hydrological simulations project a clear positive global river discharge trend from ∼2000 that emerges beyond the levels of natural variability and becomes “unfamiliar” by 2017 and “unusual” by 2033. Simulations agree that the climate change signal is dominated by strong increases in the flows of rivers originating in central Africa and South Asia and those discharging into the Arctic Ocean, partially compensated for by the reduced flow projected for Patagonian rivers. The potential implications of such changes may include more frequent floods in central African and South Asian rivers, driven by the projected magnification of the annual cycles with unprecedented peaks, a freshening of the Arctic Ocean from extra freshwater release, and limited water availability in Patagonia given the projected drier conditions of its rivers. This underscores the critical need for a paradigm shift in prioritizing water-related concerns amidst the challenges of global warming. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Global warming CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Arctic Arctic Ocean Patagonia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 28 10 2179 2201 |
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Open Polar |
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CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
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ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
There is high confidence that global warming intensifies all components of the global water cycle. This work investigates the possible effects of global warming on river flows worldwide in the coming decades. We conducted 18 global hydrological simulations to assess how river flows are projected to change in the near future (2015–2050) compared to the recent past (1950–2014). The simulations are forced by runoff from the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs), which assume a high-emission scenario for the projections. The assessment includes estimating the signal-to-noise () ratio and the time of emergence (ToE) of all the rivers in the world. Consistently with the water cycle intensification, the hydrological simulations project a clear positive global river discharge trend from ∼2000 that emerges beyond the levels of natural variability and becomes “unfamiliar” by 2017 and “unusual” by 2033. Simulations agree that the climate change signal is dominated by strong increases in the flows of rivers originating in central Africa and South Asia and those discharging into the Arctic Ocean, partially compensated for by the reduced flow projected for Patagonian rivers. The potential implications of such changes may include more frequent floods in central African and South Asian rivers, driven by the projected magnification of the annual cycles with unprecedented peaks, a freshening of the Arctic Ocean from extra freshwater release, and limited water availability in Patagonia given the projected drier conditions of its rivers. This underscores the critical need for a paradigm shift in prioritizing water-related concerns amidst the challenges of global warming. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Müller, Omar V. McGuire, Patrick Vidale, Pier Luigi Hawkins, Ed |
spellingShingle |
Müller, Omar V. McGuire, Patrick Vidale, Pier Luigi Hawkins, Ed River flow in the near future: a global perspective in the context of a high-emission climate change scenario |
author_facet |
Müller, Omar V. McGuire, Patrick Vidale, Pier Luigi Hawkins, Ed |
author_sort |
Müller, Omar V. |
title |
River flow in the near future: a global perspective in the context of a high-emission climate change scenario |
title_short |
River flow in the near future: a global perspective in the context of a high-emission climate change scenario |
title_full |
River flow in the near future: a global perspective in the context of a high-emission climate change scenario |
title_fullStr |
River flow in the near future: a global perspective in the context of a high-emission climate change scenario |
title_full_unstemmed |
River flow in the near future: a global perspective in the context of a high-emission climate change scenario |
title_sort |
river flow in the near future: a global perspective in the context of a high-emission climate change scenario |
publisher |
EGU |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/116618/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/116618/1/hess-28-2179-2024.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2179-2024 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Patagonia |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Patagonia |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Global warming |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Global warming |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/116618/1/hess-28-2179-2024.pdf Müller, O. V. orcid:0000-0001-9943-8368 , McGuire, P. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90008573.html> orcid:0000-0001-6592-4966 , Vidale, P. L. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000796.html> orcid:0000-0002-1800-8460 and Hawkins, E. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000949.html> orcid:0000-0001-9477-3677 (2024) River flow in the near future: a global perspective in the context of a high-emission climate change scenario. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 28 (10). pp. 2179-2201. ISSN 1607-7938 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2179-2024 <https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2179-2024> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2179-2024 |
container_title |
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
container_volume |
28 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
2179 |
op_container_end_page |
2201 |
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1802641127419936768 |