Preferred structures in large-scale circulation and the effect of doubling greenhouse gas concentration in HadCM3
Preferred structures in the surface pressure variability are investigated in and compared between two 100-year simulations of the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3. In the first (control) simulation, the model is forced with pre-industrial carbon dioxide concentration (1×CO2) and in the second simu...
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Online Access: | https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/1149/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/1149/1/HannachiTurner08_published.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.236 |
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:1149 2024-06-23T07:45:14+00:00 Preferred structures in large-scale circulation and the effect of doubling greenhouse gas concentration in HadCM3 Hannachi, A. Turner, A. G. 2008 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/1149/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/1149/1/HannachiTurner08_published.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.236 en eng Royal Meteorological Society https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/1149/1/HannachiTurner08_published.pdf Hannachi, A. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90002773.html> and Turner, A. G. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000510.html> orcid:0000-0002-0642-6876 (2008) Preferred structures in large-scale circulation and the effect of doubling greenhouse gas concentration in HadCM3. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 134 (631). pp. 469-480. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.236 <https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.236> 551 Geology hydrology meteorology Article PeerReviewed 2008 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.236 2024-06-11T14:41:45Z Preferred structures in the surface pressure variability are investigated in and compared between two 100-year simulations of the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3. In the first (control) simulation, the model is forced with pre-industrial carbon dioxide concentration (1×CO2) and in the second simulation the model is forced with doubled CO2 concentration (2×CO2). Daily winter (December-January-February) surface pressures over the Northern Hemisphere are analysed. The identification of preferred patterns is addressed using multivariate mixture models. For the control simulation, two significant flow regimes are obtained at 5% and 2.5% significance levels within the state space spanned by the leading two principal components. They show a high pressure centre over the North Pacific/Aleutian Islands associated with a low pressure centre over the North Atlantic, and its reverse. For the 2×CO2 simulation, no such behaviour is obtained. At higher-dimensional state space, flow patterns are obtained from both simulations. They are found to be significant at the 1% level for the control simulation and at the 2.5% level for the 2×CO2 simulation. Hence under CO2 doubling, regime behaviour in the large-scale wave dynamics weakens. Doubling greenhouse gas concentration affects both the frequency of occurrence of regimes and also the pattern structures. The less frequent regime becomes amplified and the more frequent regime weakens. The largest change is observed over the Pacific where a significant deepening of the Aleutian low is obtained under CO2 doubling. Article in Journal/Newspaper aleutian low North Atlantic Aleutian Islands CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Pacific Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 134 631 469 480 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
op_collection_id |
ftunivreading |
language |
English |
topic |
551 Geology hydrology meteorology |
spellingShingle |
551 Geology hydrology meteorology Hannachi, A. Turner, A. G. Preferred structures in large-scale circulation and the effect of doubling greenhouse gas concentration in HadCM3 |
topic_facet |
551 Geology hydrology meteorology |
description |
Preferred structures in the surface pressure variability are investigated in and compared between two 100-year simulations of the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3. In the first (control) simulation, the model is forced with pre-industrial carbon dioxide concentration (1×CO2) and in the second simulation the model is forced with doubled CO2 concentration (2×CO2). Daily winter (December-January-February) surface pressures over the Northern Hemisphere are analysed. The identification of preferred patterns is addressed using multivariate mixture models. For the control simulation, two significant flow regimes are obtained at 5% and 2.5% significance levels within the state space spanned by the leading two principal components. They show a high pressure centre over the North Pacific/Aleutian Islands associated with a low pressure centre over the North Atlantic, and its reverse. For the 2×CO2 simulation, no such behaviour is obtained. At higher-dimensional state space, flow patterns are obtained from both simulations. They are found to be significant at the 1% level for the control simulation and at the 2.5% level for the 2×CO2 simulation. Hence under CO2 doubling, regime behaviour in the large-scale wave dynamics weakens. Doubling greenhouse gas concentration affects both the frequency of occurrence of regimes and also the pattern structures. The less frequent regime becomes amplified and the more frequent regime weakens. The largest change is observed over the Pacific where a significant deepening of the Aleutian low is obtained under CO2 doubling. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hannachi, A. Turner, A. G. |
author_facet |
Hannachi, A. Turner, A. G. |
author_sort |
Hannachi, A. |
title |
Preferred structures in large-scale circulation and the effect of doubling greenhouse gas concentration in HadCM3 |
title_short |
Preferred structures in large-scale circulation and the effect of doubling greenhouse gas concentration in HadCM3 |
title_full |
Preferred structures in large-scale circulation and the effect of doubling greenhouse gas concentration in HadCM3 |
title_fullStr |
Preferred structures in large-scale circulation and the effect of doubling greenhouse gas concentration in HadCM3 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Preferred structures in large-scale circulation and the effect of doubling greenhouse gas concentration in HadCM3 |
title_sort |
preferred structures in large-scale circulation and the effect of doubling greenhouse gas concentration in hadcm3 |
publisher |
Royal Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/1149/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/1149/1/HannachiTurner08_published.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.236 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
aleutian low North Atlantic Aleutian Islands |
genre_facet |
aleutian low North Atlantic Aleutian Islands |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/1149/1/HannachiTurner08_published.pdf Hannachi, A. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90002773.html> and Turner, A. G. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000510.html> orcid:0000-0002-0642-6876 (2008) Preferred structures in large-scale circulation and the effect of doubling greenhouse gas concentration in HadCM3. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 134 (631). pp. 469-480. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.236 <https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.236> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.236 |
container_title |
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
container_volume |
134 |
container_issue |
631 |
container_start_page |
469 |
op_container_end_page |
480 |
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1802638485604007936 |