Storylines of Sahel precipitation change: roles of the North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean temperature
Future changes in Sahel precipitation are uncertain because of large differences among projections from various models. In order to explore this uncertainty, we use a storyline approach which seeks to identify alternative plausible evolutions of Sahel precipitation and their driving factors. By anal...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
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American Geophysical Union
2023
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Online Access: | https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/113060/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/113060/1/JGR%20Atmospheres%20-%202023%20-%20Monerie.pdf |
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:113060 2024-05-19T07:44:30+00:00 Storylines of Sahel precipitation change: roles of the North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean temperature Monerie, Paul-Arthur Biasutti, Michela Mignot, Juliette Mohino, Elsa Pohl, Benjamin Zappa, Giuseppe 2023-08-27 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/113060/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/113060/1/JGR%20Atmospheres%20-%202023%20-%20Monerie.pdf en eng American Geophysical Union https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/113060/1/JGR%20Atmospheres%20-%202023%20-%20Monerie.pdf Monerie, P.-A. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90007727.html> orcid:0000-0002-5304-9559 , Biasutti, M., Mignot, J., Mohino, E., Pohl, B. and Zappa, G. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90003969.html> (2023) Storylines of Sahel precipitation change: roles of the North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean temperature. JGR Atmospheres, 128 (16). e2023JD038712. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD038712 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD038712> cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2023 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD038712 2024-05-01T00:32:29Z Future changes in Sahel precipitation are uncertain because of large differences among projections from various models. In order to explore this uncertainty, we use a storyline approach which seeks to identify alternative plausible evolutions of Sahel precipitation and their driving factors. By analyzing projections from the CMIP6 climate models, we show that changes in North Atlantic and in Euro-Mediterranean temperatures explain up to 60% of the central Sahel precipitation change uncertainty. We then construct several storylines of Sahel precipitation change based on future plausible changes in North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean temperatures. In one storyline, an amplified warming of both the North Atlantic and the Euro-Mediterranean areas promotes a northward shift of the West African monsoon, increasing precipitation over the central Sahel, while, in the opposite storyline, a moderate warming in both regions is associated with a small change in precipitation over the central Sahel and a decrease in precipitation over the western Sahel, at the end of the 21st century. These results indicate that Sahel precipitation uncertainty will not be substantially reduced unless the uncertainty in the future warming of the North Atlantic and the Euro-Mediterranean areas is constrained. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 128 16 |
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CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
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ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
Future changes in Sahel precipitation are uncertain because of large differences among projections from various models. In order to explore this uncertainty, we use a storyline approach which seeks to identify alternative plausible evolutions of Sahel precipitation and their driving factors. By analyzing projections from the CMIP6 climate models, we show that changes in North Atlantic and in Euro-Mediterranean temperatures explain up to 60% of the central Sahel precipitation change uncertainty. We then construct several storylines of Sahel precipitation change based on future plausible changes in North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean temperatures. In one storyline, an amplified warming of both the North Atlantic and the Euro-Mediterranean areas promotes a northward shift of the West African monsoon, increasing precipitation over the central Sahel, while, in the opposite storyline, a moderate warming in both regions is associated with a small change in precipitation over the central Sahel and a decrease in precipitation over the western Sahel, at the end of the 21st century. These results indicate that Sahel precipitation uncertainty will not be substantially reduced unless the uncertainty in the future warming of the North Atlantic and the Euro-Mediterranean areas is constrained. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Monerie, Paul-Arthur Biasutti, Michela Mignot, Juliette Mohino, Elsa Pohl, Benjamin Zappa, Giuseppe |
spellingShingle |
Monerie, Paul-Arthur Biasutti, Michela Mignot, Juliette Mohino, Elsa Pohl, Benjamin Zappa, Giuseppe Storylines of Sahel precipitation change: roles of the North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean temperature |
author_facet |
Monerie, Paul-Arthur Biasutti, Michela Mignot, Juliette Mohino, Elsa Pohl, Benjamin Zappa, Giuseppe |
author_sort |
Monerie, Paul-Arthur |
title |
Storylines of Sahel precipitation change: roles of the North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean temperature |
title_short |
Storylines of Sahel precipitation change: roles of the North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean temperature |
title_full |
Storylines of Sahel precipitation change: roles of the North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean temperature |
title_fullStr |
Storylines of Sahel precipitation change: roles of the North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean temperature |
title_full_unstemmed |
Storylines of Sahel precipitation change: roles of the North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean temperature |
title_sort |
storylines of sahel precipitation change: roles of the north atlantic and euro-mediterranean temperature |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/113060/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/113060/1/JGR%20Atmospheres%20-%202023%20-%20Monerie.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/113060/1/JGR%20Atmospheres%20-%202023%20-%20Monerie.pdf Monerie, P.-A. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90007727.html> orcid:0000-0002-5304-9559 , Biasutti, M., Mignot, J., Mohino, E., Pohl, B. and Zappa, G. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90003969.html> (2023) Storylines of Sahel precipitation change: roles of the North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean temperature. JGR Atmospheres, 128 (16). e2023JD038712. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD038712 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD038712> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD038712 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
container_volume |
128 |
container_issue |
16 |
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1799484293925306368 |