Amplified seasonal range in precipitation minus evaporation
Warming of climate is intensifying the global water cycle, including the rate of fresh water flux between the atmosphere and surface, determined by precipitation minus evaporation (P−E). Surplus or deficit in fresh water impacts societies and ecosystems so it is important to monitor and understand h...
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Institute of Physics
2023
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Online Access: | https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/112694/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/112694/8/Allan_2023_Environ._Res._Lett._18_094004.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/112694/1/Allan_P_E_ERL_rev1_clean.pdf |
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:112694 2024-05-19T07:36:24+00:00 Amplified seasonal range in precipitation minus evaporation Allan, Richard P. 2023 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/112694/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/112694/8/Allan_2023_Environ._Res._Lett._18_094004.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/112694/1/Allan_P_E_ERL_rev1_clean.pdf en eng Institute of Physics https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/112694/8/Allan_2023_Environ._Res._Lett._18_094004.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/112694/1/Allan_P_E_ERL_rev1_clean.pdf Allan, R. P. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000870.html> orcid:0000-0003-0264-9447 (2023) Amplified seasonal range in precipitation minus evaporation. Environmental Research Letters, 18 (9). 094004. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acea36 <https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acea36> cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2023 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acea36 2024-05-01T00:32:29Z Warming of climate is intensifying the global water cycle, including the rate of fresh water flux between the atmosphere and surface, determined by precipitation minus evaporation (P−E). Surplus or deficit in fresh water impacts societies and ecosystems so it is important to monitor and understand how and why P−E patterns and their seasonal range are changing across the globe. Here, annual maximum and minimum P−E and their changes are diagnosed globally over land and ocean in observations-based datasets and CMIP6 climate model experiments from 1950-2100. Seasonal minimum P−E is negative across much of the globe apart from the Arctic, mid-latitude oceans and the tropical warm pool. In the global mean, P−E maximum increases and P−E minimum decreases by around 3-4% per oC of global warming from 1995-2014 to 2080-2100 in the ensemble mean of an intermediate greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Over land, there is less coherence across datasets 1960-2020 but an increase in the seasonal range in P−E also emerges in future projections. Patterns of future changes in annual maximum and minimum P−E are qualitatively similar to present day trends with increases in maximum P−E in the equatorial belt and high latitude regions and decreases in the subtropical subsidence zones. This adds confidence to future projections of a more variable and extreme water cycle but also highlights uncertainties in this response over land. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Global warming CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Environmental Research Letters 18 9 094004 |
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Open Polar |
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CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
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ftunivreading |
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English |
description |
Warming of climate is intensifying the global water cycle, including the rate of fresh water flux between the atmosphere and surface, determined by precipitation minus evaporation (P−E). Surplus or deficit in fresh water impacts societies and ecosystems so it is important to monitor and understand how and why P−E patterns and their seasonal range are changing across the globe. Here, annual maximum and minimum P−E and their changes are diagnosed globally over land and ocean in observations-based datasets and CMIP6 climate model experiments from 1950-2100. Seasonal minimum P−E is negative across much of the globe apart from the Arctic, mid-latitude oceans and the tropical warm pool. In the global mean, P−E maximum increases and P−E minimum decreases by around 3-4% per oC of global warming from 1995-2014 to 2080-2100 in the ensemble mean of an intermediate greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Over land, there is less coherence across datasets 1960-2020 but an increase in the seasonal range in P−E also emerges in future projections. Patterns of future changes in annual maximum and minimum P−E are qualitatively similar to present day trends with increases in maximum P−E in the equatorial belt and high latitude regions and decreases in the subtropical subsidence zones. This adds confidence to future projections of a more variable and extreme water cycle but also highlights uncertainties in this response over land. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Allan, Richard P. |
spellingShingle |
Allan, Richard P. Amplified seasonal range in precipitation minus evaporation |
author_facet |
Allan, Richard P. |
author_sort |
Allan, Richard P. |
title |
Amplified seasonal range in precipitation minus evaporation |
title_short |
Amplified seasonal range in precipitation minus evaporation |
title_full |
Amplified seasonal range in precipitation minus evaporation |
title_fullStr |
Amplified seasonal range in precipitation minus evaporation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Amplified seasonal range in precipitation minus evaporation |
title_sort |
amplified seasonal range in precipitation minus evaporation |
publisher |
Institute of Physics |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/112694/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/112694/8/Allan_2023_Environ._Res._Lett._18_094004.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/112694/1/Allan_P_E_ERL_rev1_clean.pdf |
genre |
Arctic Global warming |
genre_facet |
Arctic Global warming |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/112694/8/Allan_2023_Environ._Res._Lett._18_094004.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/112694/1/Allan_P_E_ERL_rev1_clean.pdf Allan, R. P. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000870.html> orcid:0000-0003-0264-9447 (2023) Amplified seasonal range in precipitation minus evaporation. Environmental Research Letters, 18 (9). 094004. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acea36 <https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acea36> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acea36 |
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Environmental Research Letters |
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18 |
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9 |
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094004 |
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1799475520804487168 |