Evidence for large increases in clear‐air turbulence over the past four decades

Clear-air turbulence (CAT) is hazardous to aircraft and is projected to intensify in response to future climate change. However, our understanding of past CAT trends is currently limited, being derived largely from outdated reanalysis data. Here we analyze CAT trends globally during 1979–2020 in a m...

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Published in:Geophysical Research Letters
Main Authors: Prosser, Mark C., Williams, Paul D., Marlton, Graeme J., Harrison, R. Giles
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: American Geophysical Union 2023
Subjects:
Online Access:https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/112236/
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/112236/8/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202023%20-%20Prosser%20-%20Evidence%20for%20Large%20Increases%20in%20Clear%E2%80%90Air%20Turbulence%20Over%20the%20Past%20Four.pdf
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/112236/1/accepted.pdf
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spelling ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:112236 2024-09-15T18:23:20+00:00 Evidence for large increases in clear‐air turbulence over the past four decades Prosser, Mark C. Williams, Paul D. Marlton, Graeme J. Harrison, R. Giles 2023-06-16 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/112236/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/112236/8/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202023%20-%20Prosser%20-%20Evidence%20for%20Large%20Increases%20in%20Clear%E2%80%90Air%20Turbulence%20Over%20the%20Past%20Four.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/112236/1/accepted.pdf en eng American Geophysical Union https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/112236/8/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202023%20-%20Prosser%20-%20Evidence%20for%20Large%20Increases%20in%20Clear%E2%80%90Air%20Turbulence%20Over%20the%20Past%20Four.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/112236/1/accepted.pdf Prosser, M. C. orcid:0000-0002-3181-642X , Williams, P. D. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000894.html> orcid:0000-0002-9713-9820 , Marlton, G. J. and Harrison, R. G. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000018.html> orcid:0000-0003-0693-347X (2023) Evidence for large increases in clear‐air turbulence over the past four decades. Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (11). e2023GL103814. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103814 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103814> cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2023 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103814 2024-08-05T23:38:49Z Clear-air turbulence (CAT) is hazardous to aircraft and is projected to intensify in response to future climate change. However, our understanding of past CAT trends is currently limited, being derived largely from outdated reanalysis data. Here we analyze CAT trends globally during 1979–2020 in a modern reanalysis data set using 21 diagnostics. We find clear evidence of large increases around the midlatitudes at aircraft cruising altitudes. For example, at an average point over the North Atlantic, the total annual duration of light-or-greater CAT increased by 17% from 466.5 hr in 1979 to 546.8 hr in 2020, with even larger relative changes for moderate-or greater CAT (increasing by 37% from 70.0 to 96.1 hr) and severe-or-greater CAT (increasing by 55% from 17.7 to 27.4 hr). Similar increases are also found over the continental USA. Our study represents the best evidence yet that CAT has increased over the past four decades. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Geophysical Research Letters 50 11
institution Open Polar
collection CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading
op_collection_id ftunivreading
language English
description Clear-air turbulence (CAT) is hazardous to aircraft and is projected to intensify in response to future climate change. However, our understanding of past CAT trends is currently limited, being derived largely from outdated reanalysis data. Here we analyze CAT trends globally during 1979–2020 in a modern reanalysis data set using 21 diagnostics. We find clear evidence of large increases around the midlatitudes at aircraft cruising altitudes. For example, at an average point over the North Atlantic, the total annual duration of light-or-greater CAT increased by 17% from 466.5 hr in 1979 to 546.8 hr in 2020, with even larger relative changes for moderate-or greater CAT (increasing by 37% from 70.0 to 96.1 hr) and severe-or-greater CAT (increasing by 55% from 17.7 to 27.4 hr). Similar increases are also found over the continental USA. Our study represents the best evidence yet that CAT has increased over the past four decades.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Prosser, Mark C.
Williams, Paul D.
Marlton, Graeme J.
Harrison, R. Giles
spellingShingle Prosser, Mark C.
Williams, Paul D.
Marlton, Graeme J.
Harrison, R. Giles
Evidence for large increases in clear‐air turbulence over the past four decades
author_facet Prosser, Mark C.
Williams, Paul D.
Marlton, Graeme J.
Harrison, R. Giles
author_sort Prosser, Mark C.
title Evidence for large increases in clear‐air turbulence over the past four decades
title_short Evidence for large increases in clear‐air turbulence over the past four decades
title_full Evidence for large increases in clear‐air turbulence over the past four decades
title_fullStr Evidence for large increases in clear‐air turbulence over the past four decades
title_full_unstemmed Evidence for large increases in clear‐air turbulence over the past four decades
title_sort evidence for large increases in clear‐air turbulence over the past four decades
publisher American Geophysical Union
publishDate 2023
url https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/112236/
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/112236/8/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202023%20-%20Prosser%20-%20Evidence%20for%20Large%20Increases%20in%20Clear%E2%80%90Air%20Turbulence%20Over%20the%20Past%20Four.pdf
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/112236/1/accepted.pdf
genre North Atlantic
genre_facet North Atlantic
op_relation https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/112236/8/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202023%20-%20Prosser%20-%20Evidence%20for%20Large%20Increases%20in%20Clear%E2%80%90Air%20Turbulence%20Over%20the%20Past%20Four.pdf
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/112236/1/accepted.pdf
Prosser, M. C. orcid:0000-0002-3181-642X , Williams, P. D. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000894.html> orcid:0000-0002-9713-9820 , Marlton, G. J. and Harrison, R. G. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000018.html> orcid:0000-0003-0693-347X (2023) Evidence for large increases in clear‐air turbulence over the past four decades. Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (11). e2023GL103814. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103814 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103814>
op_rights cc_by_4
op_doi https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103814
container_title Geophysical Research Letters
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