Storylines for future changes of the North Atlantic jet and associated impacts on the UK
Climate projections for the UK exhibit substantial uncertainty, and this uncertainty is a hindrance to robust and timely decision making on both adaptation and mitigation policy issues. A large part of the uncertainty is associated with dynamical changes of the regional atmospheric circulation rathe...
Published in: | International Journal of Climatology |
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:111785 2024-09-15T18:21:50+00:00 Storylines for future changes of the North Atlantic jet and associated impacts on the UK Harvey, Ben Hawkins, Ed Sutton, Rowan 2023-08 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/111785/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/111785/8/111785%20VoR.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/111785/1/Jet%20Storylines%20for%20the%20UK.pdf en eng Wiley https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/111785/8/111785%20VoR.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/111785/1/Jet%20Storylines%20for%20the%20UK.pdf Harvey, B. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90003964.html> orcid:0000-0002-6510-8181 , Hawkins, E. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000949.html> orcid:0000-0001-9477-3677 and Sutton, R. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000057.html> orcid:0000-0001-8345-8583 (2023) Storylines for future changes of the North Atlantic jet and associated impacts on the UK. International Journal of Climatology, 43 (10). pp. 4424-4441. ISSN 1097-0088 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8095 <https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8095> cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2023 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8095 2024-07-30T14:08:26Z Climate projections for the UK exhibit substantial uncertainty, and this uncertainty is a hindrance to robust and timely decision making on both adaptation and mitigation policy issues. A large part of the uncertainty is associated with dynamical changes of the regional atmospheric circulation rather than thermodynamic changes which are better constrained by model simulations. Of particular importance for the UK is the extent to which the North Atlantic jet will change over coming decades and the impact this will have on weather and climate in the region. In this paper we propose the use of jet-based storylines for assessing and communicating uncertainty in climate projections for the UK, wherein changes in each impact are explicitly conditioned on changes in the North Atlantic jet. This approach provides a framework for evaluating the impacts associated with a range of plausible future climate outcomes for the UK, including outcomes that may not be well represented in the current generation of climate models, and for communicating these potential outcomes. We construct a simple yet useful set of future jet storylines for both summer and winter and for 2C and 4C global warming levels and illustrate the utility of the approach by evaluating the impact of each jet storyline on future changes in UK precipitation. In doing so, we demonstrate that the relationships between the jet and UK precipitation are consistent between observed interannual variability and projected changes. This finding increases our confidence in projecting changes in UK precipitation associated with each storyline. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading International Journal of Climatology |
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Open Polar |
collection |
CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
op_collection_id |
ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
Climate projections for the UK exhibit substantial uncertainty, and this uncertainty is a hindrance to robust and timely decision making on both adaptation and mitigation policy issues. A large part of the uncertainty is associated with dynamical changes of the regional atmospheric circulation rather than thermodynamic changes which are better constrained by model simulations. Of particular importance for the UK is the extent to which the North Atlantic jet will change over coming decades and the impact this will have on weather and climate in the region. In this paper we propose the use of jet-based storylines for assessing and communicating uncertainty in climate projections for the UK, wherein changes in each impact are explicitly conditioned on changes in the North Atlantic jet. This approach provides a framework for evaluating the impacts associated with a range of plausible future climate outcomes for the UK, including outcomes that may not be well represented in the current generation of climate models, and for communicating these potential outcomes. We construct a simple yet useful set of future jet storylines for both summer and winter and for 2C and 4C global warming levels and illustrate the utility of the approach by evaluating the impact of each jet storyline on future changes in UK precipitation. In doing so, we demonstrate that the relationships between the jet and UK precipitation are consistent between observed interannual variability and projected changes. This finding increases our confidence in projecting changes in UK precipitation associated with each storyline. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Harvey, Ben Hawkins, Ed Sutton, Rowan |
spellingShingle |
Harvey, Ben Hawkins, Ed Sutton, Rowan Storylines for future changes of the North Atlantic jet and associated impacts on the UK |
author_facet |
Harvey, Ben Hawkins, Ed Sutton, Rowan |
author_sort |
Harvey, Ben |
title |
Storylines for future changes of the North Atlantic jet and associated impacts on the UK |
title_short |
Storylines for future changes of the North Atlantic jet and associated impacts on the UK |
title_full |
Storylines for future changes of the North Atlantic jet and associated impacts on the UK |
title_fullStr |
Storylines for future changes of the North Atlantic jet and associated impacts on the UK |
title_full_unstemmed |
Storylines for future changes of the North Atlantic jet and associated impacts on the UK |
title_sort |
storylines for future changes of the north atlantic jet and associated impacts on the uk |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/111785/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/111785/8/111785%20VoR.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/111785/1/Jet%20Storylines%20for%20the%20UK.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/111785/8/111785%20VoR.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/111785/1/Jet%20Storylines%20for%20the%20UK.pdf Harvey, B. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90003964.html> orcid:0000-0002-6510-8181 , Hawkins, E. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000949.html> orcid:0000-0001-9477-3677 and Sutton, R. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000057.html> orcid:0000-0001-8345-8583 (2023) Storylines for future changes of the North Atlantic jet and associated impacts on the UK. International Journal of Climatology, 43 (10). pp. 4424-4441. ISSN 1097-0088 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8095 <https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8095> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8095 |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
_version_ |
1810460814979629056 |