A climate science toolkit for high impact‐low likelihood climate risks
An important component of the risks from climate change arises from outcomes that are very unlikely, but whose impacts if they were to occur would be extremely severe. Examples include levels of surface warming, or changes in the water cycle, that are at the extreme of plausible ranges, or crossing...
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2023
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:111752 2024-06-23T07:53:49+00:00 A climate science toolkit for high impact‐low likelihood climate risks Wood, Richard A. Crucifix, Michel Lenton, Timothy M. Mach, Katharine J. Moore, Crystal New, Mark Sharpe, Simon Stocker, Thomas F. Sutton, Rowan T. 2023-04 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/111752/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/111752/1/Earth%20s%20Future%20-%202023%20-%20Wood%20-%20A%20Climate%20Science%20Toolkit%20for%20High%20Impact%E2%80%90Low%20Likelihood%20Climate%20Risks.pdf en eng American Geophysical Union (AGU) https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/111752/1/Earth%20s%20Future%20-%202023%20-%20Wood%20-%20A%20Climate%20Science%20Toolkit%20for%20High%20Impact%E2%80%90Low%20Likelihood%20Climate%20Risks.pdf Wood, R. A. orcid:0000-0002-3960-9513 , Crucifix, M. orcid:0000-0002-3437-4911 , Lenton, T. M., Mach, K. J. orcid:0000-0002-5591-8148 , Moore, C., New, M., Sharpe, S., Stocker, T. F. and Sutton, R. T. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000057.html> orcid:0000-0001-8345-8583 (2023) A climate science toolkit for high impact‐low likelihood climate risks. Earth's Future, 11 (4). e2022EF003369. ISSN 2328-4277 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef003369 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef003369> cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2023 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef003369 2024-06-11T15:12:32Z An important component of the risks from climate change arises from outcomes that are very unlikely, but whose impacts if they were to occur would be extremely severe. Examples include levels of surface warming, or changes in the water cycle, that are at the extreme of plausible ranges, or crossing of a climate system “tipping point” such as ice sheet or ocean circulation instability. If such changes were to occur their impacts on infrastructure or ecosystems may exceed existing plans for adaptation. The traditional approach of ensemble climate change projections is not well suited to managing these High Impact-Low Likelihood (HILL) risks, where the objective is to “prepare for the worst” rather than to “plan for what's likely.” In this paper we draw together a number of ideas from recent literature, to classify four types of HILL climate outcome and to propose the development of a practical “toolkit” of physical climate information that can be used in future to inform HILL risk management. The toolkit consists of several elements that would need to be developed for each plausible HILL climate outcome, then deployed individually to develop targeted HILL risk management approaches for individual sectors. We argue that development of the HILL toolkit should be an important focus for physical climate research over the coming decade, and that the time is right for a focused assessment of HILL risks by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its 7th Assessment Cycle. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ice Sheet CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Earth's Future 11 4 |
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Open Polar |
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CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
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ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
An important component of the risks from climate change arises from outcomes that are very unlikely, but whose impacts if they were to occur would be extremely severe. Examples include levels of surface warming, or changes in the water cycle, that are at the extreme of plausible ranges, or crossing of a climate system “tipping point” such as ice sheet or ocean circulation instability. If such changes were to occur their impacts on infrastructure or ecosystems may exceed existing plans for adaptation. The traditional approach of ensemble climate change projections is not well suited to managing these High Impact-Low Likelihood (HILL) risks, where the objective is to “prepare for the worst” rather than to “plan for what's likely.” In this paper we draw together a number of ideas from recent literature, to classify four types of HILL climate outcome and to propose the development of a practical “toolkit” of physical climate information that can be used in future to inform HILL risk management. The toolkit consists of several elements that would need to be developed for each plausible HILL climate outcome, then deployed individually to develop targeted HILL risk management approaches for individual sectors. We argue that development of the HILL toolkit should be an important focus for physical climate research over the coming decade, and that the time is right for a focused assessment of HILL risks by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its 7th Assessment Cycle. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wood, Richard A. Crucifix, Michel Lenton, Timothy M. Mach, Katharine J. Moore, Crystal New, Mark Sharpe, Simon Stocker, Thomas F. Sutton, Rowan T. |
spellingShingle |
Wood, Richard A. Crucifix, Michel Lenton, Timothy M. Mach, Katharine J. Moore, Crystal New, Mark Sharpe, Simon Stocker, Thomas F. Sutton, Rowan T. A climate science toolkit for high impact‐low likelihood climate risks |
author_facet |
Wood, Richard A. Crucifix, Michel Lenton, Timothy M. Mach, Katharine J. Moore, Crystal New, Mark Sharpe, Simon Stocker, Thomas F. Sutton, Rowan T. |
author_sort |
Wood, Richard A. |
title |
A climate science toolkit for high impact‐low likelihood climate risks |
title_short |
A climate science toolkit for high impact‐low likelihood climate risks |
title_full |
A climate science toolkit for high impact‐low likelihood climate risks |
title_fullStr |
A climate science toolkit for high impact‐low likelihood climate risks |
title_full_unstemmed |
A climate science toolkit for high impact‐low likelihood climate risks |
title_sort |
climate science toolkit for high impact‐low likelihood climate risks |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/111752/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/111752/1/Earth%20s%20Future%20-%202023%20-%20Wood%20-%20A%20Climate%20Science%20Toolkit%20for%20High%20Impact%E2%80%90Low%20Likelihood%20Climate%20Risks.pdf |
genre |
Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/111752/1/Earth%20s%20Future%20-%202023%20-%20Wood%20-%20A%20Climate%20Science%20Toolkit%20for%20High%20Impact%E2%80%90Low%20Likelihood%20Climate%20Risks.pdf Wood, R. A. orcid:0000-0002-3960-9513 , Crucifix, M. orcid:0000-0002-3437-4911 , Lenton, T. M., Mach, K. J. orcid:0000-0002-5591-8148 , Moore, C., New, M., Sharpe, S., Stocker, T. F. and Sutton, R. T. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000057.html> orcid:0000-0001-8345-8583 (2023) A climate science toolkit for high impact‐low likelihood climate risks. Earth's Future, 11 (4). e2022EF003369. ISSN 2328-4277 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef003369 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef003369> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ef003369 |
container_title |
Earth's Future |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
4 |
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1802645658120749056 |