Decadal predictability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet in winter

• Published in: Geophysical Research Letters
• Main Authors: Marcheggiani, Andrea, Robson, Jon, Monerie, Paul-Arthur, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., Smith, Doug
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: American Geophysical Union 2023
• Subjects: North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/111403/; https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/111403/8/111403%20VoR.pdf; https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/111403/1/949380_1_art_file_10690544_rprlyd.pdf

This paper expands on work showing that the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is predictable on decadal timescales to quantify the skill in capturing the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet’s location and speed. By focusing on decadal predictions made for years 2-9 from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project over 1960-2005 we find that there is significant skill in jet latitude and, especially, jet speed associated with the skill in the NAO. However, the skill in the NAO and jet latitude and speed indices appears to be sensitive to the period over which it is assessed. In particular, skill drops considerably when evaluating hindcasts up to the present day as models fail to capture the recent observed northern shift and strengthening of the winter eddy-driven jet, and more thus positive NAO. We suggest the drop in atmospheric circulation skill is related to reduced skill in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures.