Uncertainty in simulating twentieth century West African precipitation trends: the role of anthropogenic aerosol emissions
Anthropogenic aerosol emissions from North America and Europe have strong effects on the decadal variability of the West African monsoon. Anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing is model dependent, but the impact of such uncertainty on the simulation of long-term West African monsoon varia...
Published in: | Earth's Future |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Wiley
2023
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/109941/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/109941/8/Earth%20s%20Future%20-%202023%20-%20Monerie%20-%20Uncertainty%20in%20Simulating%20Twentieth%20Century%20West%20African%20Precipitation%20Trends%20%20The%20Role.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/109941/1/Monerie_etal_Earth_s_Future_figures.pdf |
id |
ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:109941 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:109941 2024-09-15T18:23:45+00:00 Uncertainty in simulating twentieth century West African precipitation trends: the role of anthropogenic aerosol emissions Monerie, Paul-Arthur Dittus, Andrea J. Wilcox, Laura J. Turner, Andy G. 2023-01-26 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/109941/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/109941/8/Earth%20s%20Future%20-%202023%20-%20Monerie%20-%20Uncertainty%20in%20Simulating%20Twentieth%20Century%20West%20African%20Precipitation%20Trends%20%20The%20Role.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/109941/1/Monerie_etal_Earth_s_Future_figures.pdf en eng Wiley https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/109941/8/Earth%20s%20Future%20-%202023%20-%20Monerie%20-%20Uncertainty%20in%20Simulating%20Twentieth%20Century%20West%20African%20Precipitation%20Trends%20%20The%20Role.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/109941/1/Monerie_etal_Earth_s_Future_figures.pdf Monerie, P.-A. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90007727.html> orcid:0000-0002-5304-9559 , Dittus, A. J. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90008382.html> orcid:0000-0001-9598-6869 , Wilcox, L. J. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90004004.html> orcid:0000-0001-5691-1493 and Turner, A. G. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000510.html> orcid:0000-0002-0642-6876 (2023) Uncertainty in simulating twentieth century West African precipitation trends: the role of anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Earth's Future, 11 (2). e2022EF002995. ISSN 2328-4277 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002995 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002995> cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2023 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002995 2024-06-25T15:05:58Z Anthropogenic aerosol emissions from North America and Europe have strong effects on the decadal variability of the West African monsoon. Anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing is model dependent, but the impact of such uncertainty on the simulation of long-term West African monsoon variability is unknown. We use an ensemble of simulations with HadGEM3-GC3.1 that span the most recent estimates in simulated anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing. We show that uncertainty in anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing leads to significant uncertainty at simulating multi-decadal trends in West African precipitation. At the large scale, larger forcing leads to a larger decrease in the interhemispheric temperature gradients, in temperature over both the North Atlantic Ocean and northern Sahara. There are also differences in dynamic changes specific to the West African monsoon (locations of the Saharan heat low and African Easterly Jet, of the strength of the West African westerly jet, and of African Easterly Wave activity). We also assess effects on monsoon precipitation characteristics and temperature. We show that larger aerosol forcing results in a decrease of the number of rainy days and of heavy and extreme precipitation events and warm spells. However, simulated changes in onset and demise dates do not appear to be sensitive to the magnitude of aerosol forcing. Our results demonstrate the importance of reducing the uncertainty in anthropogenic aerosol forcing for understanding and predicting multi-decadal variability in the West African monsoon. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Earth's Future 11 2 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
op_collection_id |
ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
Anthropogenic aerosol emissions from North America and Europe have strong effects on the decadal variability of the West African monsoon. Anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing is model dependent, but the impact of such uncertainty on the simulation of long-term West African monsoon variability is unknown. We use an ensemble of simulations with HadGEM3-GC3.1 that span the most recent estimates in simulated anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing. We show that uncertainty in anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing leads to significant uncertainty at simulating multi-decadal trends in West African precipitation. At the large scale, larger forcing leads to a larger decrease in the interhemispheric temperature gradients, in temperature over both the North Atlantic Ocean and northern Sahara. There are also differences in dynamic changes specific to the West African monsoon (locations of the Saharan heat low and African Easterly Jet, of the strength of the West African westerly jet, and of African Easterly Wave activity). We also assess effects on monsoon precipitation characteristics and temperature. We show that larger aerosol forcing results in a decrease of the number of rainy days and of heavy and extreme precipitation events and warm spells. However, simulated changes in onset and demise dates do not appear to be sensitive to the magnitude of aerosol forcing. Our results demonstrate the importance of reducing the uncertainty in anthropogenic aerosol forcing for understanding and predicting multi-decadal variability in the West African monsoon. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Monerie, Paul-Arthur Dittus, Andrea J. Wilcox, Laura J. Turner, Andy G. |
spellingShingle |
Monerie, Paul-Arthur Dittus, Andrea J. Wilcox, Laura J. Turner, Andy G. Uncertainty in simulating twentieth century West African precipitation trends: the role of anthropogenic aerosol emissions |
author_facet |
Monerie, Paul-Arthur Dittus, Andrea J. Wilcox, Laura J. Turner, Andy G. |
author_sort |
Monerie, Paul-Arthur |
title |
Uncertainty in simulating twentieth century West African precipitation trends: the role of anthropogenic aerosol emissions |
title_short |
Uncertainty in simulating twentieth century West African precipitation trends: the role of anthropogenic aerosol emissions |
title_full |
Uncertainty in simulating twentieth century West African precipitation trends: the role of anthropogenic aerosol emissions |
title_fullStr |
Uncertainty in simulating twentieth century West African precipitation trends: the role of anthropogenic aerosol emissions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertainty in simulating twentieth century West African precipitation trends: the role of anthropogenic aerosol emissions |
title_sort |
uncertainty in simulating twentieth century west african precipitation trends: the role of anthropogenic aerosol emissions |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/109941/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/109941/8/Earth%20s%20Future%20-%202023%20-%20Monerie%20-%20Uncertainty%20in%20Simulating%20Twentieth%20Century%20West%20African%20Precipitation%20Trends%20%20The%20Role.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/109941/1/Monerie_etal_Earth_s_Future_figures.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/109941/8/Earth%20s%20Future%20-%202023%20-%20Monerie%20-%20Uncertainty%20in%20Simulating%20Twentieth%20Century%20West%20African%20Precipitation%20Trends%20%20The%20Role.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/109941/1/Monerie_etal_Earth_s_Future_figures.pdf Monerie, P.-A. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90007727.html> orcid:0000-0002-5304-9559 , Dittus, A. J. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90008382.html> orcid:0000-0001-9598-6869 , Wilcox, L. J. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90004004.html> orcid:0000-0001-5691-1493 and Turner, A. G. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000510.html> orcid:0000-0002-0642-6876 (2023) Uncertainty in simulating twentieth century West African precipitation trends: the role of anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Earth's Future, 11 (2). e2022EF002995. ISSN 2328-4277 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002995 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002995> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002995 |
container_title |
Earth's Future |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
2 |
_version_ |
1810464019283181568 |