ECMWF extreme forecast index for water vapor transport: a forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation
In winter, heavy precipitation and floods along the west coasts of midlatitude continents are largely caused by intense water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)) within the atmospheric river of extratropical cyclones. This study builds on previous findings that showed that forecasts o...
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American Geophysical Union
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:106884 2024-06-23T07:55:06+00:00 ECMWF extreme forecast index for water vapor transport: a forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation Lavers, David A. Pappenberger, Florian Richardson, David S. Zsoter, Ervin 2016-12-14 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/106884/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/106884/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202016%20-%20Lavers%20-%20ECMWF%20Extreme%20Forecast%20Index%20for%20water%20vapor%20transport%20%20A%20forecast%20tool%20for.pdf en eng American Geophysical Union https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/106884/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202016%20-%20Lavers%20-%20ECMWF%20Extreme%20Forecast%20Index%20for%20water%20vapor%20transport%20%20A%20forecast%20tool%20for.pdf Lavers, D. A. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90003972.html> orcid:0000-0002-7947-3737 , Pappenberger, F. orcid:0000-0003-1766-2898 , Richardson, D. S. and Zsoter, E. (2016) ECMWF extreme forecast index for water vapor transport: a forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (22). pp. 11852-11858. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071320 <https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071320> cc_by_nc_nd_4 Article PeerReviewed 2016 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071320 2024-06-11T15:11:42Z In winter, heavy precipitation and floods along the west coasts of midlatitude continents are largely caused by intense water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)) within the atmospheric river of extratropical cyclones. This study builds on previous findings that showed that forecasts of IVT have higher predictability than precipitation, by applying and evaluating the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for IVT in ensemble forecasts during three winters across Europe. We show that the IVT EFI is more able (than the precipitation EFI) to capture extreme precipitation in forecast week 2 during forecasts initialized in a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase; conversely, the precipitation EFI is better during the negative NAO phase and at shorter leads. An IVT EFI example for storm Desmond in December 2015 highlights its potential to identify upcoming hydrometeorological extremes, which may prove useful to the user and forecasting communities. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Geophysical Research Letters 43 22 |
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Open Polar |
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CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
op_collection_id |
ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
In winter, heavy precipitation and floods along the west coasts of midlatitude continents are largely caused by intense water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)) within the atmospheric river of extratropical cyclones. This study builds on previous findings that showed that forecasts of IVT have higher predictability than precipitation, by applying and evaluating the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for IVT in ensemble forecasts during three winters across Europe. We show that the IVT EFI is more able (than the precipitation EFI) to capture extreme precipitation in forecast week 2 during forecasts initialized in a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase; conversely, the precipitation EFI is better during the negative NAO phase and at shorter leads. An IVT EFI example for storm Desmond in December 2015 highlights its potential to identify upcoming hydrometeorological extremes, which may prove useful to the user and forecasting communities. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lavers, David A. Pappenberger, Florian Richardson, David S. Zsoter, Ervin |
spellingShingle |
Lavers, David A. Pappenberger, Florian Richardson, David S. Zsoter, Ervin ECMWF extreme forecast index for water vapor transport: a forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation |
author_facet |
Lavers, David A. Pappenberger, Florian Richardson, David S. Zsoter, Ervin |
author_sort |
Lavers, David A. |
title |
ECMWF extreme forecast index for water vapor transport: a forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation |
title_short |
ECMWF extreme forecast index for water vapor transport: a forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation |
title_full |
ECMWF extreme forecast index for water vapor transport: a forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation |
title_fullStr |
ECMWF extreme forecast index for water vapor transport: a forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation |
title_full_unstemmed |
ECMWF extreme forecast index for water vapor transport: a forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation |
title_sort |
ecmwf extreme forecast index for water vapor transport: a forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/106884/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/106884/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202016%20-%20Lavers%20-%20ECMWF%20Extreme%20Forecast%20Index%20for%20water%20vapor%20transport%20%20A%20forecast%20tool%20for.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/106884/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202016%20-%20Lavers%20-%20ECMWF%20Extreme%20Forecast%20Index%20for%20water%20vapor%20transport%20%20A%20forecast%20tool%20for.pdf Lavers, D. A. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90003972.html> orcid:0000-0002-7947-3737 , Pappenberger, F. orcid:0000-0003-1766-2898 , Richardson, D. S. and Zsoter, E. (2016) ECMWF extreme forecast index for water vapor transport: a forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (22). pp. 11852-11858. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071320 <https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071320> |
op_rights |
cc_by_nc_nd_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071320 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
43 |
container_issue |
22 |
_version_ |
1802647523013165056 |