Combination of decadal predictions and climate projections in time: challenges and potential solutions
This study presents an approach to provide seamless climate information by concatenating decadal climate predictions and climate projections in time. Results for near-surface air temperature over 29 regions indicate that such an approach has potential to provide meaningful information but can also i...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
American Geophysical Union
2022
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/106812/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/106812/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202022%20-%20Befort%20-%20Combination%20of%20Decadal%20Predictions%20and%20Climate%20Projections%20in%20Time%20.pdf |
id |
ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:106812 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:106812 2023-09-05T13:19:52+02:00 Combination of decadal predictions and climate projections in time: challenges and potential solutions Befort, D. J. Brunner, L. Borchert, L. F. O'Reilly, C. H. Mignot, J. Ballinger, A. P. Hegerl, G. C. Murphy, J. M. Weisheimer, A. 2022-08-16 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/106812/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/106812/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202022%20-%20Befort%20-%20Combination%20of%20Decadal%20Predictions%20and%20Climate%20Projections%20in%20Time%20.pdf en eng American Geophysical Union https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/106812/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202022%20-%20Befort%20-%20Combination%20of%20Decadal%20Predictions%20and%20Climate%20Projections%20in%20Time%20.pdf Befort, D. J., Brunner, L., Borchert, L. F., O'Reilly, C. H. ORCID logoorcid:0000-0002-8630-1650 , Mignot, J., Ballinger, A. P., Hegerl, G. C., Murphy, J. M. and Weisheimer, A. (2022) Combination of decadal predictions and climate projections in time: challenges and potential solutions. Geophysical Research Letters, 49 (15). e2022GL098568. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098568 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098568> cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2022 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098568 2023-08-14T18:17:10Z This study presents an approach to provide seamless climate information by concatenating decadal climate predictions and climate projections in time. Results for near-surface air temperature over 29 regions indicate that such an approach has potential to provide meaningful information but can also introduce significant inconsistencies. Inconsistencies are often most pronounced for relatively extreme quantiles of the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble distribution, whereas they are generally smaller and mostly insignificant for quantiles close to the median. The regions most affected are the North Atlantic, Greenland and Northern Europe. Two potential ways to reduce inconsistencies are discussed, including a simple calibration method and a weighting approach based on model performance. Calibration generally reduces inconsistencies but does not eliminate all of them. The impact of model weighting is minor, which is found to be linked to the small size of the decadal climate prediction ensemble, which in turn limits the applicability of that method. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland North Atlantic CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Greenland Geophysical Research Letters 49 15 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
op_collection_id |
ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
This study presents an approach to provide seamless climate information by concatenating decadal climate predictions and climate projections in time. Results for near-surface air temperature over 29 regions indicate that such an approach has potential to provide meaningful information but can also introduce significant inconsistencies. Inconsistencies are often most pronounced for relatively extreme quantiles of the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble distribution, whereas they are generally smaller and mostly insignificant for quantiles close to the median. The regions most affected are the North Atlantic, Greenland and Northern Europe. Two potential ways to reduce inconsistencies are discussed, including a simple calibration method and a weighting approach based on model performance. Calibration generally reduces inconsistencies but does not eliminate all of them. The impact of model weighting is minor, which is found to be linked to the small size of the decadal climate prediction ensemble, which in turn limits the applicability of that method. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Befort, D. J. Brunner, L. Borchert, L. F. O'Reilly, C. H. Mignot, J. Ballinger, A. P. Hegerl, G. C. Murphy, J. M. Weisheimer, A. |
spellingShingle |
Befort, D. J. Brunner, L. Borchert, L. F. O'Reilly, C. H. Mignot, J. Ballinger, A. P. Hegerl, G. C. Murphy, J. M. Weisheimer, A. Combination of decadal predictions and climate projections in time: challenges and potential solutions |
author_facet |
Befort, D. J. Brunner, L. Borchert, L. F. O'Reilly, C. H. Mignot, J. Ballinger, A. P. Hegerl, G. C. Murphy, J. M. Weisheimer, A. |
author_sort |
Befort, D. J. |
title |
Combination of decadal predictions and climate projections in time: challenges and potential solutions |
title_short |
Combination of decadal predictions and climate projections in time: challenges and potential solutions |
title_full |
Combination of decadal predictions and climate projections in time: challenges and potential solutions |
title_fullStr |
Combination of decadal predictions and climate projections in time: challenges and potential solutions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Combination of decadal predictions and climate projections in time: challenges and potential solutions |
title_sort |
combination of decadal predictions and climate projections in time: challenges and potential solutions |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/106812/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/106812/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202022%20-%20Befort%20-%20Combination%20of%20Decadal%20Predictions%20and%20Climate%20Projections%20in%20Time%20.pdf |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Greenland North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/106812/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202022%20-%20Befort%20-%20Combination%20of%20Decadal%20Predictions%20and%20Climate%20Projections%20in%20Time%20.pdf Befort, D. J., Brunner, L., Borchert, L. F., O'Reilly, C. H. ORCID logoorcid:0000-0002-8630-1650 , Mignot, J., Ballinger, A. P., Hegerl, G. C., Murphy, J. M. and Weisheimer, A. (2022) Combination of decadal predictions and climate projections in time: challenges and potential solutions. Geophysical Research Letters, 49 (15). e2022GL098568. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098568 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098568> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098568 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
49 |
container_issue |
15 |
_version_ |
1776200666648150016 |