Predictive skill of teleconnection patterns in twentieth century seasonal hindcasts and their relationship to extreme winter temperatures in Europe
European winter weather is dominated by several low-frequency teleconnection patterns, the main ones being the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic, East Atlantic/Western Russia and Scandinavian patterns. We analyze the century-long ERA-20C reanalysis and ASF-20C seasonal hindcast datasets and...
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
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American Geophysical Union
2022
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Online Access: | https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105427/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105427/8/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202022%20-%20Schuhen%20-%20Predictive%20Skill%20of%20Teleconnection%20Patterns%20in%20Twentieth%20Century%20Seasonal.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105427/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202022%20-%20Schuhen%20-%20Predictive%20Skill%20of%20Teleconnection%20Patterns%20in%20Twentieth%20Century%20Seasonal.pdf |
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:105427 2024-06-23T07:55:06+00:00 Predictive skill of teleconnection patterns in twentieth century seasonal hindcasts and their relationship to extreme winter temperatures in Europe Schuhen, Nina Schaller, Nathalie Bloomfield, Hannah C. Brayshaw, David J. Lledó, Llorenç Cionni, Irene Sillmann, Jana 2022 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105427/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105427/8/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202022%20-%20Schuhen%20-%20Predictive%20Skill%20of%20Teleconnection%20Patterns%20in%20Twentieth%20Century%20Seasonal.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105427/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202022%20-%20Schuhen%20-%20Predictive%20Skill%20of%20Teleconnection%20Patterns%20in%20Twentieth%20Century%20Seasonal.pdf en eng American Geophysical Union https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105427/8/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202022%20-%20Schuhen%20-%20Predictive%20Skill%20of%20Teleconnection%20Patterns%20in%20Twentieth%20Century%20Seasonal.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105427/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202022%20-%20Schuhen%20-%20Predictive%20Skill%20of%20Teleconnection%20Patterns%20in%20Twentieth%20Century%20Seasonal.pdf Schuhen, N., Schaller, N., Bloomfield, H. C. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90008366.html> orcid:0000-0002-5616-1503 , Brayshaw, D. J. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000618.html> orcid:0000-0002-3927-4362 , Lledó, L., Cionni, I. and Sillmann, J. (2022) Predictive skill of teleconnection patterns in twentieth century seasonal hindcasts and their relationship to extreme winter temperatures in Europe. Geophysical Research Letters, 49 (11). e2020GL092360. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092360 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092360> cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2022 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092360 2024-06-11T15:11:42Z European winter weather is dominated by several low-frequency teleconnection patterns, the main ones being the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic, East Atlantic/Western Russia and Scandinavian patterns. We analyze the century-long ERA-20C reanalysis and ASF-20C seasonal hindcast datasets and find that these patterns are subject to decadal variability and fluctuations in predictive skill. Using indices for determining periods of extreme cold or warm temperatures, we establish that the teleconnection patterns are, for some regions, significantly correlated or anti-correlated to cold or heat waves. The seasonal hindcasts are however only partly able to capture these relationships. There do not seem to be significant changes to the observed links between large-scale circulation patterns and extreme temperatures between periods of higher and lower predictive skill. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Geophysical Research Letters 49 11 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
op_collection_id |
ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
European winter weather is dominated by several low-frequency teleconnection patterns, the main ones being the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic, East Atlantic/Western Russia and Scandinavian patterns. We analyze the century-long ERA-20C reanalysis and ASF-20C seasonal hindcast datasets and find that these patterns are subject to decadal variability and fluctuations in predictive skill. Using indices for determining periods of extreme cold or warm temperatures, we establish that the teleconnection patterns are, for some regions, significantly correlated or anti-correlated to cold or heat waves. The seasonal hindcasts are however only partly able to capture these relationships. There do not seem to be significant changes to the observed links between large-scale circulation patterns and extreme temperatures between periods of higher and lower predictive skill. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Schuhen, Nina Schaller, Nathalie Bloomfield, Hannah C. Brayshaw, David J. Lledó, Llorenç Cionni, Irene Sillmann, Jana |
spellingShingle |
Schuhen, Nina Schaller, Nathalie Bloomfield, Hannah C. Brayshaw, David J. Lledó, Llorenç Cionni, Irene Sillmann, Jana Predictive skill of teleconnection patterns in twentieth century seasonal hindcasts and their relationship to extreme winter temperatures in Europe |
author_facet |
Schuhen, Nina Schaller, Nathalie Bloomfield, Hannah C. Brayshaw, David J. Lledó, Llorenç Cionni, Irene Sillmann, Jana |
author_sort |
Schuhen, Nina |
title |
Predictive skill of teleconnection patterns in twentieth century seasonal hindcasts and their relationship to extreme winter temperatures in Europe |
title_short |
Predictive skill of teleconnection patterns in twentieth century seasonal hindcasts and their relationship to extreme winter temperatures in Europe |
title_full |
Predictive skill of teleconnection patterns in twentieth century seasonal hindcasts and their relationship to extreme winter temperatures in Europe |
title_fullStr |
Predictive skill of teleconnection patterns in twentieth century seasonal hindcasts and their relationship to extreme winter temperatures in Europe |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predictive skill of teleconnection patterns in twentieth century seasonal hindcasts and their relationship to extreme winter temperatures in Europe |
title_sort |
predictive skill of teleconnection patterns in twentieth century seasonal hindcasts and their relationship to extreme winter temperatures in europe |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105427/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105427/8/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202022%20-%20Schuhen%20-%20Predictive%20Skill%20of%20Teleconnection%20Patterns%20in%20Twentieth%20Century%20Seasonal.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105427/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202022%20-%20Schuhen%20-%20Predictive%20Skill%20of%20Teleconnection%20Patterns%20in%20Twentieth%20Century%20Seasonal.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105427/8/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202022%20-%20Schuhen%20-%20Predictive%20Skill%20of%20Teleconnection%20Patterns%20in%20Twentieth%20Century%20Seasonal.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105427/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202022%20-%20Schuhen%20-%20Predictive%20Skill%20of%20Teleconnection%20Patterns%20in%20Twentieth%20Century%20Seasonal.pdf Schuhen, N., Schaller, N., Bloomfield, H. C. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90008366.html> orcid:0000-0002-5616-1503 , Brayshaw, D. J. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000618.html> orcid:0000-0002-3927-4362 , Lledó, L., Cionni, I. and Sillmann, J. (2022) Predictive skill of teleconnection patterns in twentieth century seasonal hindcasts and their relationship to extreme winter temperatures in Europe. Geophysical Research Letters, 49 (11). e2020GL092360. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092360 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092360> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092360 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
49 |
container_issue |
11 |
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1802647517882482688 |