Identifying weather patterns as sociated with increased volcanic ash risk within British Isles airspace
Icelandic volcanic emissions have been shown historically and more recently to have an impact on public health and aviation across northern and western Europe. The severity of these impacts is governed by the prevailing weather conditions and the nature of the eruption. This study focuses on the for...
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American Meteorological Society
2022
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Online Access: | https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105003/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105003/15/1520-0434-WAF-D-22-0023.1.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105003/1/Flow%20from%20Iceland%20-%20Jan%202022%20Final%20Reviewed.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105003/2/Flow%20from%20Iceland%20Supplementary%20Information%20%281%29.pdf |
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:105003 2024-09-15T18:05:24+00:00 Identifying weather patterns as sociated with increased volcanic ash risk within British Isles airspace Harrison, Samuel R. Pope, James O. Neal, Robert A. Garry, Freya K. Kurashina, Ryosuke Suri, Dan 2022-07-01 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105003/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105003/15/1520-0434-WAF-D-22-0023.1.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105003/1/Flow%20from%20Iceland%20-%20Jan%202022%20Final%20Reviewed.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105003/2/Flow%20from%20Iceland%20Supplementary%20Information%20%281%29.pdf en eng American Meteorological Society https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105003/15/1520-0434-WAF-D-22-0023.1.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105003/1/Flow%20from%20Iceland%20-%20Jan%202022%20Final%20Reviewed.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105003/2/Flow%20from%20Iceland%20Supplementary%20Information%20%281%29.pdf Harrison, S. R., Pope, J. O., Neal, R. A., Garry, F. K., Kurashina, R. and Suri, D. (2022) Identifying weather patterns as sociated with increased volcanic ash risk within British Isles airspace. Weather and Forecasting, 37 (7). pp. 1157-1168. ISSN 0882-8156 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-22-0023.1 <https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-22-0023.1> cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2022 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-22-0023.1 2024-06-25T15:05:58Z Icelandic volcanic emissions have been shown historically and more recently to have an impact on public health and aviation across northern and western Europe. The severity of these impacts is governed by the prevailing weather conditions and the nature of the eruption. This study focuses on the former utilising an existing set of 30 weather patterns produced by the Met Office. Associated daily historical classifications are used to assess which weather patterns are most likely to result in flow from Iceland into four flight information regions (FIRs) covering the British Isles and North Atlantic, which may lead to disruption to aviation during Icelandic volcanic episodes. High-risk weather patterns vary between FIRs, with a total of 14 weather patterns impacting at least one FIR. These high-risk types predominantly have a north-westerly or westerly flow from Iceland into British Isles airspace. Analysis of the historical classifications reveals a typical duration for high-risk periods of three to five days, when transitions between high-risk types are considered. High-risk periods lasting over a week are also possible in all four FIRs. Additionally, impacts are more likely in winter months for most FIRs. Knowledge of high-risk weather patterns for aviation can be used within existing operational probabilistic weather pattern forecasting tools. Combined probabilities for high-risk weather patterns can be derived for the medium-range (one- to two-weeks ahead) and used to provide a rapid assessment as to the likelihood of flow from Iceland. This weather pattern forecasting application is illustrated using archived forecast data for the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption. Article in Journal/Newspaper Eyjafjallajökull Iceland North Atlantic CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Weather and Forecasting 37 7 1157 1168 |
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Open Polar |
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CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
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ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
Icelandic volcanic emissions have been shown historically and more recently to have an impact on public health and aviation across northern and western Europe. The severity of these impacts is governed by the prevailing weather conditions and the nature of the eruption. This study focuses on the former utilising an existing set of 30 weather patterns produced by the Met Office. Associated daily historical classifications are used to assess which weather patterns are most likely to result in flow from Iceland into four flight information regions (FIRs) covering the British Isles and North Atlantic, which may lead to disruption to aviation during Icelandic volcanic episodes. High-risk weather patterns vary between FIRs, with a total of 14 weather patterns impacting at least one FIR. These high-risk types predominantly have a north-westerly or westerly flow from Iceland into British Isles airspace. Analysis of the historical classifications reveals a typical duration for high-risk periods of three to five days, when transitions between high-risk types are considered. High-risk periods lasting over a week are also possible in all four FIRs. Additionally, impacts are more likely in winter months for most FIRs. Knowledge of high-risk weather patterns for aviation can be used within existing operational probabilistic weather pattern forecasting tools. Combined probabilities for high-risk weather patterns can be derived for the medium-range (one- to two-weeks ahead) and used to provide a rapid assessment as to the likelihood of flow from Iceland. This weather pattern forecasting application is illustrated using archived forecast data for the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Harrison, Samuel R. Pope, James O. Neal, Robert A. Garry, Freya K. Kurashina, Ryosuke Suri, Dan |
spellingShingle |
Harrison, Samuel R. Pope, James O. Neal, Robert A. Garry, Freya K. Kurashina, Ryosuke Suri, Dan Identifying weather patterns as sociated with increased volcanic ash risk within British Isles airspace |
author_facet |
Harrison, Samuel R. Pope, James O. Neal, Robert A. Garry, Freya K. Kurashina, Ryosuke Suri, Dan |
author_sort |
Harrison, Samuel R. |
title |
Identifying weather patterns as sociated with increased volcanic ash risk within British Isles airspace |
title_short |
Identifying weather patterns as sociated with increased volcanic ash risk within British Isles airspace |
title_full |
Identifying weather patterns as sociated with increased volcanic ash risk within British Isles airspace |
title_fullStr |
Identifying weather patterns as sociated with increased volcanic ash risk within British Isles airspace |
title_full_unstemmed |
Identifying weather patterns as sociated with increased volcanic ash risk within British Isles airspace |
title_sort |
identifying weather patterns as sociated with increased volcanic ash risk within british isles airspace |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105003/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105003/15/1520-0434-WAF-D-22-0023.1.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105003/1/Flow%20from%20Iceland%20-%20Jan%202022%20Final%20Reviewed.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105003/2/Flow%20from%20Iceland%20Supplementary%20Information%20%281%29.pdf |
genre |
Eyjafjallajökull Iceland North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Eyjafjallajökull Iceland North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105003/15/1520-0434-WAF-D-22-0023.1.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105003/1/Flow%20from%20Iceland%20-%20Jan%202022%20Final%20Reviewed.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/105003/2/Flow%20from%20Iceland%20Supplementary%20Information%20%281%29.pdf Harrison, S. R., Pope, J. O., Neal, R. A., Garry, F. K., Kurashina, R. and Suri, D. (2022) Identifying weather patterns as sociated with increased volcanic ash risk within British Isles airspace. Weather and Forecasting, 37 (7). pp. 1157-1168. ISSN 0882-8156 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-22-0023.1 <https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-22-0023.1> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-22-0023.1 |
container_title |
Weather and Forecasting |
container_volume |
37 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
1157 |
op_container_end_page |
1168 |
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1810442947009708032 |