A stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth system models: performance, impacts and future
We have implemented a new stratospheric ozone model in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) system and tested its performance for different timescales to assess the impact of stratospheric ozone on meteorological fields. We have used the new ozone model to provide prognosti...
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Copernicus Publications
2022
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:104479 2024-09-15T17:48:06+00:00 A stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth system models: performance, impacts and future Monge-Sanz, Beatriz M. Bozzo, Alessio Byrne, Nicholas Chipperfield, Martyn P. Diamantakis, Michail Flemming, Johannes Gray, Lesley J. Hogan, Robin J. Jones, Luke Magnusson, Linus Polichtchouk, Inna Shepherd, Theodore G. Wedi, Nils Weisheimer, Antje 2022-04-04 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/104479/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/104479/2/acp-22-4277-2022.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/104479/1/acp-2020-1261-manuscript-version5.pdf en eng Copernicus Publications https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/104479/2/acp-22-4277-2022.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/104479/1/acp-2020-1261-manuscript-version5.pdf Monge-Sanz, B. M., Bozzo, A., Byrne, N. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90008827.html>, Chipperfield, M. P., Diamantakis, M., Flemming, J., Gray, L. J., Hogan, R. J. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000289.html> orcid:0000-0002-3180-5157 , Jones, L., Magnusson, L., Polichtchouk, I. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90005994.html>, Shepherd, T. G. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90004685.html> orcid:0000-0002-6631-9968 , Wedi, N. and Weisheimer, A. (2022) A stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth system models: performance, impacts and future. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 22. pp. 4277-4302. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022 <https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022> cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2022 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022 2024-07-30T14:08:26Z We have implemented a new stratospheric ozone model in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) system and tested its performance for different timescales to assess the impact of stratospheric ozone on meteorological fields. We have used the new ozone model to provide prognostic ozone in medium-range and long-range (seasonal) experiments, showing the feasibility of this ozone scheme for a seamless numerical weather prediction (NWP) modelling approach. We find that the stratospheric ozone distribution provided by the new scheme in ECMWF forecast experiments is in very good agreement with observations, even for unusual meteorological conditions such as Arctic stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) and Antarctic polar vortex events like the vortex split of year 2002. To assess the impact it has on meteorological variables, we have performed experiments in which the prognostic ozone is interactive with radiation. The new scheme provides a realistic ozone field able to improve the description of the stratosphere in the ECMWF system, as we find clear reductions of biases in the stratospheric forecast temperature. The seasonality of the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex is also significantly improved when using the new ozone model. In medium-range simulations we also find improvements in high-latitude tropospheric winds during the SSW event considered in this study. In long-range simulations, the use of the new ozone model leads to an increase in the correlation of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index with respect to ERA-Interim and an increase in the signal-to-noise ratio over the North Atlantic sector. In our study we show that by improving the description of the stratospheric ozone in the ECMWF system, the stratosphere–troposphere coupling improves. This highlights the potential benefits of this new ozone model to exploit stratospheric sources of predictability and improve weather predictions over Europe on a range of timescales. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 22 7 4277 4302 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
op_collection_id |
ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
We have implemented a new stratospheric ozone model in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) system and tested its performance for different timescales to assess the impact of stratospheric ozone on meteorological fields. We have used the new ozone model to provide prognostic ozone in medium-range and long-range (seasonal) experiments, showing the feasibility of this ozone scheme for a seamless numerical weather prediction (NWP) modelling approach. We find that the stratospheric ozone distribution provided by the new scheme in ECMWF forecast experiments is in very good agreement with observations, even for unusual meteorological conditions such as Arctic stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) and Antarctic polar vortex events like the vortex split of year 2002. To assess the impact it has on meteorological variables, we have performed experiments in which the prognostic ozone is interactive with radiation. The new scheme provides a realistic ozone field able to improve the description of the stratosphere in the ECMWF system, as we find clear reductions of biases in the stratospheric forecast temperature. The seasonality of the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex is also significantly improved when using the new ozone model. In medium-range simulations we also find improvements in high-latitude tropospheric winds during the SSW event considered in this study. In long-range simulations, the use of the new ozone model leads to an increase in the correlation of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index with respect to ERA-Interim and an increase in the signal-to-noise ratio over the North Atlantic sector. In our study we show that by improving the description of the stratospheric ozone in the ECMWF system, the stratosphere–troposphere coupling improves. This highlights the potential benefits of this new ozone model to exploit stratospheric sources of predictability and improve weather predictions over Europe on a range of timescales. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Monge-Sanz, Beatriz M. Bozzo, Alessio Byrne, Nicholas Chipperfield, Martyn P. Diamantakis, Michail Flemming, Johannes Gray, Lesley J. Hogan, Robin J. Jones, Luke Magnusson, Linus Polichtchouk, Inna Shepherd, Theodore G. Wedi, Nils Weisheimer, Antje |
spellingShingle |
Monge-Sanz, Beatriz M. Bozzo, Alessio Byrne, Nicholas Chipperfield, Martyn P. Diamantakis, Michail Flemming, Johannes Gray, Lesley J. Hogan, Robin J. Jones, Luke Magnusson, Linus Polichtchouk, Inna Shepherd, Theodore G. Wedi, Nils Weisheimer, Antje A stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth system models: performance, impacts and future |
author_facet |
Monge-Sanz, Beatriz M. Bozzo, Alessio Byrne, Nicholas Chipperfield, Martyn P. Diamantakis, Michail Flemming, Johannes Gray, Lesley J. Hogan, Robin J. Jones, Luke Magnusson, Linus Polichtchouk, Inna Shepherd, Theodore G. Wedi, Nils Weisheimer, Antje |
author_sort |
Monge-Sanz, Beatriz M. |
title |
A stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth system models: performance, impacts and future |
title_short |
A stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth system models: performance, impacts and future |
title_full |
A stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth system models: performance, impacts and future |
title_fullStr |
A stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth system models: performance, impacts and future |
title_full_unstemmed |
A stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth system models: performance, impacts and future |
title_sort |
stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless earth system models: performance, impacts and future |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/104479/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/104479/2/acp-22-4277-2022.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/104479/1/acp-2020-1261-manuscript-version5.pdf |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/104479/2/acp-22-4277-2022.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/104479/1/acp-2020-1261-manuscript-version5.pdf Monge-Sanz, B. M., Bozzo, A., Byrne, N. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90008827.html>, Chipperfield, M. P., Diamantakis, M., Flemming, J., Gray, L. J., Hogan, R. J. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90000289.html> orcid:0000-0002-3180-5157 , Jones, L., Magnusson, L., Polichtchouk, I. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90005994.html>, Shepherd, T. G. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90004685.html> orcid:0000-0002-6631-9968 , Wedi, N. and Weisheimer, A. (2022) A stratospheric prognostic ozone for seamless Earth system models: performance, impacts and future. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 22. pp. 4277-4302. ISSN 1680-7316 doi: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022 <https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4277-2022 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
22 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
4277 |
op_container_end_page |
4302 |
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1810289140091060224 |