Effects of anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions on Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation: mechanisms and uncertainty
Northern Hemisphere Land monsoon precipitation (NHLM)exhibits multidecadal variability, decreasing over the second half of the 20 st century and increasing after the 1980s. We use a novel combination of CMIP6 simulations and several large ensembles to assess the relative roles of drivers of monsoon...
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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American Meteorological Society
2022
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Online Access: | https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/102237/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/102237/9/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Effects%20of%20Anthropogenic%20Aerosol%20and%20Greenhouse%20Gas%20Emissions%20on%20Northern%20Hemisphere%20Monsoon%20Precipitation_%20Mechanisms%20and%20Uncertainty.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/102237/1/JCLI-D-21-0412_R2_f.pdf |
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:102237 2023-09-05T13:21:35+02:00 Effects of anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions on Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation: mechanisms and uncertainty Monerie, Paul-Arthur Wilcox, Laura J. Turner, Andrew G. 2022-04-15 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/102237/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/102237/9/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Effects%20of%20Anthropogenic%20Aerosol%20and%20Greenhouse%20Gas%20Emissions%20on%20Northern%20Hemisphere%20Monsoon%20Precipitation_%20Mechanisms%20and%20Uncertainty.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/102237/1/JCLI-D-21-0412_R2_f.pdf en eng American Meteorological Society https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/102237/9/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Effects%20of%20Anthropogenic%20Aerosol%20and%20Greenhouse%20Gas%20Emissions%20on%20Northern%20Hemisphere%20Monsoon%20Precipitation_%20Mechanisms%20and%20Uncertainty.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/102237/1/JCLI-D-21-0412_R2_f.pdf Monerie, Paul-Arthur ORCID logoorcid:0000-0002-5304-9559 , Wilcox, Laura J. ORCID logoorcid:0000-0001-5691-1493 and Turner, Andrew G. ORCID logoorcid:0000-0002-0642-6876 (2022) Effects of anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions on Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation: mechanisms and uncertainty. Journal of Climate, 35 (8). pp. 2305-2326. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0412.1 <https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0412.1> cc_by_4 Article PeerReviewed 2022 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0412.1 2023-08-14T18:15:55Z Northern Hemisphere Land monsoon precipitation (NHLM)exhibits multidecadal variability, decreasing over the second half of the 20 st century and increasing after the 1980s. We use a novel combination of CMIP6 simulations and several large ensembles to assess the relative roles of drivers of monsoon precipitation trends, analyzing the effects of anthropogenic aerosol (AA), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and natural forcing. We decomposed summer global monsoon precipitation anomalies into dynamic and thermodynamic terms to assess the drivers of precipitation trends. We show that the drying trends are likely to be mainly due to increased AA emissions, which cause shifts of the atmospheric circulation and a decrease in moisture advection. Increases in GHG emissions cause monsoon precipitation to increase due to strengthened moisture advection. The uncertainty in summer monsoon precipitation trends is explored using three initial condition large ensembles. AA emissions have strong controls on monsoon precipitation trends, exceeding the effects of internal climate variability. However, uncertainties in the effects of external forcings on monsoon precipitation are high for specific periods and monsoon domains, and due to differences in how models simulate shifts in atmospheric circulation. The effect of AA emissions is uncertain over the northern African monsoon domain, due to differences among climate models in simulating the effects of AA emissions on net shortwave radiation over the North Atlantic Ocean. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Journal of Climate 35 8 2305 2326 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
op_collection_id |
ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
Northern Hemisphere Land monsoon precipitation (NHLM)exhibits multidecadal variability, decreasing over the second half of the 20 st century and increasing after the 1980s. We use a novel combination of CMIP6 simulations and several large ensembles to assess the relative roles of drivers of monsoon precipitation trends, analyzing the effects of anthropogenic aerosol (AA), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and natural forcing. We decomposed summer global monsoon precipitation anomalies into dynamic and thermodynamic terms to assess the drivers of precipitation trends. We show that the drying trends are likely to be mainly due to increased AA emissions, which cause shifts of the atmospheric circulation and a decrease in moisture advection. Increases in GHG emissions cause monsoon precipitation to increase due to strengthened moisture advection. The uncertainty in summer monsoon precipitation trends is explored using three initial condition large ensembles. AA emissions have strong controls on monsoon precipitation trends, exceeding the effects of internal climate variability. However, uncertainties in the effects of external forcings on monsoon precipitation are high for specific periods and monsoon domains, and due to differences in how models simulate shifts in atmospheric circulation. The effect of AA emissions is uncertain over the northern African monsoon domain, due to differences among climate models in simulating the effects of AA emissions on net shortwave radiation over the North Atlantic Ocean. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Monerie, Paul-Arthur Wilcox, Laura J. Turner, Andrew G. |
spellingShingle |
Monerie, Paul-Arthur Wilcox, Laura J. Turner, Andrew G. Effects of anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions on Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation: mechanisms and uncertainty |
author_facet |
Monerie, Paul-Arthur Wilcox, Laura J. Turner, Andrew G. |
author_sort |
Monerie, Paul-Arthur |
title |
Effects of anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions on Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation: mechanisms and uncertainty |
title_short |
Effects of anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions on Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation: mechanisms and uncertainty |
title_full |
Effects of anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions on Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation: mechanisms and uncertainty |
title_fullStr |
Effects of anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions on Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation: mechanisms and uncertainty |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effects of anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions on Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation: mechanisms and uncertainty |
title_sort |
effects of anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions on northern hemisphere monsoon precipitation: mechanisms and uncertainty |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/102237/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/102237/9/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Effects%20of%20Anthropogenic%20Aerosol%20and%20Greenhouse%20Gas%20Emissions%20on%20Northern%20Hemisphere%20Monsoon%20Precipitation_%20Mechanisms%20and%20Uncertainty.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/102237/1/JCLI-D-21-0412_R2_f.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/102237/9/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Effects%20of%20Anthropogenic%20Aerosol%20and%20Greenhouse%20Gas%20Emissions%20on%20Northern%20Hemisphere%20Monsoon%20Precipitation_%20Mechanisms%20and%20Uncertainty.pdf https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/102237/1/JCLI-D-21-0412_R2_f.pdf Monerie, Paul-Arthur ORCID logoorcid:0000-0002-5304-9559 , Wilcox, Laura J. ORCID logoorcid:0000-0001-5691-1493 and Turner, Andrew G. ORCID logoorcid:0000-0002-0642-6876 (2022) Effects of anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions on Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation: mechanisms and uncertainty. Journal of Climate, 35 (8). pp. 2305-2326. ISSN 1520-0442 doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0412.1 <https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0412.1> |
op_rights |
cc_by_4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0412.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
35 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
2305 |
op_container_end_page |
2326 |
_version_ |
1776202186830643200 |