Interannual SAM modulation of Antarctic sea ice extent does not account for its long-term trends: implications for the role of ozone depletion
The expansion of Antarctic sea ice since 1979 in the presence of increasing greenhouse gases remains one of the most puzzling features of current climate change. Some studies have proposed that the formation of the ozone hole, via the Southern Annular Mode, might explain that expansion, and a recent...
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American Geophysical Union
2021
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:100716 2024-06-23T07:46:27+00:00 Interannual SAM modulation of Antarctic sea ice extent does not account for its long-term trends: implications for the role of ozone depletion Polvani, L. M. Banerjee, A. Chemke, R. Doddridge, E. W. Ferreira, D. Gnanadesikan, A. Holland, M. A. Kostov, Y. Marshall, J. Seviour, W. J. M. Solomon, S. Waugh, D. W. 2021-11-02 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/100716/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/100716/1/polvani%2Betal-GRL-2021-revised-2.pdf en eng American Geophysical Union https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/100716/1/polvani%2Betal-GRL-2021-revised-2.pdf Polvani, L. M., Banerjee, A., Chemke, R., Doddridge, E. W., Ferreira, D. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90005370.html> orcid:0000-0003-3243-9774 , Gnanadesikan, A., Holland, M. A., Kostov, Y., Marshall, J., Seviour, W. J. M., Solomon, S. and Waugh, D. W. (2021) Interannual SAM modulation of Antarctic sea ice extent does not account for its long-term trends: implications for the role of ozone depletion. Geophysical Research Letters, 48 (21). ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094871 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094871> Article PeerReviewed 2021 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094871 2024-06-11T15:10:56Z The expansion of Antarctic sea ice since 1979 in the presence of increasing greenhouse gases remains one of the most puzzling features of current climate change. Some studies have proposed that the formation of the ozone hole, via the Southern Annular Mode, might explain that expansion, and a recent study highlighted a robust causal link between summertime Southern Annular Mode (SAM) anomalies and sea ice anomalies in the subsequent autumn. Here we show that many models are able to capture this relationship between the SAM and sea ice, but also emphasize that the SAM only explains a small fraction of the year-to-year variability. Finally, examining multidecadal trends, in models and observations, we confirm the findings of several previous studies and conclude that the SAM – and thus the ozone hole – are not the primary drivers of the sea ice expansion around Antarctica in recent decades. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Sea ice CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Antarctic Geophysical Research Letters 48 21 |
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Open Polar |
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CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
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ftunivreading |
language |
English |
description |
The expansion of Antarctic sea ice since 1979 in the presence of increasing greenhouse gases remains one of the most puzzling features of current climate change. Some studies have proposed that the formation of the ozone hole, via the Southern Annular Mode, might explain that expansion, and a recent study highlighted a robust causal link between summertime Southern Annular Mode (SAM) anomalies and sea ice anomalies in the subsequent autumn. Here we show that many models are able to capture this relationship between the SAM and sea ice, but also emphasize that the SAM only explains a small fraction of the year-to-year variability. Finally, examining multidecadal trends, in models and observations, we confirm the findings of several previous studies and conclude that the SAM – and thus the ozone hole – are not the primary drivers of the sea ice expansion around Antarctica in recent decades. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Polvani, L. M. Banerjee, A. Chemke, R. Doddridge, E. W. Ferreira, D. Gnanadesikan, A. Holland, M. A. Kostov, Y. Marshall, J. Seviour, W. J. M. Solomon, S. Waugh, D. W. |
spellingShingle |
Polvani, L. M. Banerjee, A. Chemke, R. Doddridge, E. W. Ferreira, D. Gnanadesikan, A. Holland, M. A. Kostov, Y. Marshall, J. Seviour, W. J. M. Solomon, S. Waugh, D. W. Interannual SAM modulation of Antarctic sea ice extent does not account for its long-term trends: implications for the role of ozone depletion |
author_facet |
Polvani, L. M. Banerjee, A. Chemke, R. Doddridge, E. W. Ferreira, D. Gnanadesikan, A. Holland, M. A. Kostov, Y. Marshall, J. Seviour, W. J. M. Solomon, S. Waugh, D. W. |
author_sort |
Polvani, L. M. |
title |
Interannual SAM modulation of Antarctic sea ice extent does not account for its long-term trends: implications for the role of ozone depletion |
title_short |
Interannual SAM modulation of Antarctic sea ice extent does not account for its long-term trends: implications for the role of ozone depletion |
title_full |
Interannual SAM modulation of Antarctic sea ice extent does not account for its long-term trends: implications for the role of ozone depletion |
title_fullStr |
Interannual SAM modulation of Antarctic sea ice extent does not account for its long-term trends: implications for the role of ozone depletion |
title_full_unstemmed |
Interannual SAM modulation of Antarctic sea ice extent does not account for its long-term trends: implications for the role of ozone depletion |
title_sort |
interannual sam modulation of antarctic sea ice extent does not account for its long-term trends: implications for the role of ozone depletion |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/100716/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/100716/1/polvani%2Betal-GRL-2021-revised-2.pdf |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/100716/1/polvani%2Betal-GRL-2021-revised-2.pdf Polvani, L. M., Banerjee, A., Chemke, R., Doddridge, E. W., Ferreira, D. <https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/view/creators/90005370.html> orcid:0000-0003-3243-9774 , Gnanadesikan, A., Holland, M. A., Kostov, Y., Marshall, J., Seviour, W. J. M., Solomon, S. and Waugh, D. W. (2021) Interannual SAM modulation of Antarctic sea ice extent does not account for its long-term trends: implications for the role of ozone depletion. Geophysical Research Letters, 48 (21). ISSN 0094-8276 doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094871 <https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094871> |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094871 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
48 |
container_issue |
21 |
_version_ |
1802646048595771392 |