Quantifying the impact of early 21st century volcanic eruptions on global-mean surface temperature
Despite a continuous increase in well-mixed greenhouse gases, the global-mean surface temperature has shown a quasi-stabilization since 1998. This muted warming has been linked to the combined effects of internal climate variability and external forcing. The latter includes the impact of recent incr...
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ftunivreading:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:100406 2023-09-05T13:17:33+02:00 Quantifying the impact of early 21st century volcanic eruptions on global-mean surface temperature Monerie, Paul-Arthur Moine, Marie-Pierre Terray, Laurent Valcke, Sophie 2017-05-09 text https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/100406/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/100406/1/Monerie_2017_Environ._Res._Lett._12_054010.pdf en eng Institute of Physics https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/100406/1/Monerie_2017_Environ._Res._Lett._12_054010.pdf Monerie, Paul-Arthur ORCID logoorcid:0000-0002-5304-9559 , Moine, Marie-Pierre, Terray, Laurent and Valcke, Sophie (2017) Quantifying the impact of early 21st century volcanic eruptions on global-mean surface temperature. Environmental Research Letters, 12 (5). 054010. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb5 <https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb5> cc_by Article PeerReviewed 2017 ftunivreading https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb5 2023-08-14T18:15:19Z Despite a continuous increase in well-mixed greenhouse gases, the global-mean surface temperature has shown a quasi-stabilization since 1998. This muted warming has been linked to the combined effects of internal climate variability and external forcing. The latter includes the impact of recent increase in the volcanic activity and of solar irradiance changes. Here we used a high-resolution coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model to assess the impact of the recent volcanic eruptions on the Earth’s temperature, compared with the low volcanic activity of the early 2000s. Two sets of simulations are performed, one with realistic aerosol optical depth values, and the other with a fixed value of aerosol optical depth corresponding to a period of weak volcanic activity (1998–2002). We conclude that the observed recent increase in the volcanic activity led to a reduced warming trend (from 2003 to 2012) of 0.08 °C in ten years. The induced cooling is stronger during the last five-year period (2008–2012), with an annual global mean cooling of 0.04 °C (+/-0.04 °C). The cooling is similar in summer (0.05 °C+/-0.04 °C cooling)than in winter (0.03 °C+/-0.04 °C cooling), but stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. Although equatorial and Arctic precipitation decreases in summer, the change in precipitation does not indicate robust changes at a local scale. Global heat content variations are found not to be impacted by the recent increase in volcanic activity. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading Arctic Environmental Research Letters 12 5 054010 |
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CentAUR: Central Archive at the University of Reading |
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English |
description |
Despite a continuous increase in well-mixed greenhouse gases, the global-mean surface temperature has shown a quasi-stabilization since 1998. This muted warming has been linked to the combined effects of internal climate variability and external forcing. The latter includes the impact of recent increase in the volcanic activity and of solar irradiance changes. Here we used a high-resolution coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model to assess the impact of the recent volcanic eruptions on the Earth’s temperature, compared with the low volcanic activity of the early 2000s. Two sets of simulations are performed, one with realistic aerosol optical depth values, and the other with a fixed value of aerosol optical depth corresponding to a period of weak volcanic activity (1998–2002). We conclude that the observed recent increase in the volcanic activity led to a reduced warming trend (from 2003 to 2012) of 0.08 °C in ten years. The induced cooling is stronger during the last five-year period (2008–2012), with an annual global mean cooling of 0.04 °C (+/-0.04 °C). The cooling is similar in summer (0.05 °C+/-0.04 °C cooling)than in winter (0.03 °C+/-0.04 °C cooling), but stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. Although equatorial and Arctic precipitation decreases in summer, the change in precipitation does not indicate robust changes at a local scale. Global heat content variations are found not to be impacted by the recent increase in volcanic activity. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Monerie, Paul-Arthur Moine, Marie-Pierre Terray, Laurent Valcke, Sophie |
spellingShingle |
Monerie, Paul-Arthur Moine, Marie-Pierre Terray, Laurent Valcke, Sophie Quantifying the impact of early 21st century volcanic eruptions on global-mean surface temperature |
author_facet |
Monerie, Paul-Arthur Moine, Marie-Pierre Terray, Laurent Valcke, Sophie |
author_sort |
Monerie, Paul-Arthur |
title |
Quantifying the impact of early 21st century volcanic eruptions on global-mean surface temperature |
title_short |
Quantifying the impact of early 21st century volcanic eruptions on global-mean surface temperature |
title_full |
Quantifying the impact of early 21st century volcanic eruptions on global-mean surface temperature |
title_fullStr |
Quantifying the impact of early 21st century volcanic eruptions on global-mean surface temperature |
title_full_unstemmed |
Quantifying the impact of early 21st century volcanic eruptions on global-mean surface temperature |
title_sort |
quantifying the impact of early 21st century volcanic eruptions on global-mean surface temperature |
publisher |
Institute of Physics |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/100406/ https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/100406/1/Monerie_2017_Environ._Res._Lett._12_054010.pdf |
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Arctic |
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Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_relation |
https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/100406/1/Monerie_2017_Environ._Res._Lett._12_054010.pdf Monerie, Paul-Arthur ORCID logoorcid:0000-0002-5304-9559 , Moine, Marie-Pierre, Terray, Laurent and Valcke, Sophie (2017) Quantifying the impact of early 21st century volcanic eruptions on global-mean surface temperature. Environmental Research Letters, 12 (5). 054010. ISSN 1748-9326 doi: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb5 <https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb5> |
op_rights |
cc_by |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6cb5 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
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12 |
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5 |
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054010 |
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1776198680293933056 |