Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment
As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimat...
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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2016
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Online Access: | https://depositum.uqat.ca/id/eprint/1146/ https://depositum.uqat.ca/id/eprint/1146/1/abbottetal_erl_mars2016.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326%2F11%2F3%2F034014 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 |
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ftunivquebecat:oai:depositum.uqat.ca:1146 |
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record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT): Depositum |
op_collection_id |
ftunivquebecat |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic boreal coastal erosion dissolved organic carbon particulate organic carbon permafrost carbon wildfire |
spellingShingle |
Arctic boreal coastal erosion dissolved organic carbon particulate organic carbon permafrost carbon wildfire Abbott, Benjamin W Jones, Jeremy B Schuur, Edward A G Chapin III, F Stuart Bowden, William B Bret-Harte, M Syndonia Epstein, Howard E Flannigan, Michael D Harms, Tamara K Hollingsworth, Teresa N Mack, Michelle C McGuire, A David Natali, Susan M Rocha, Adrian V Tank, Suzanne E Turetsky, Merritt R Vonk, Jorien E Wickland, Kimberly P Aiken, George R Alexander, Heather D Amon, Rainer M W Benscoter, Brian W Bergeron, Yves Bishop, Kevin Blarquez, Olivier Bond-Lamberty, Ben Breen, Amy L Buffam, Ishi Cai, Yihua Carcaillet, Christopher Carey, Sean K Chen, Jing M Chen, Han Y H Christensen, Torben R Cooper, Lee W Cornelissen, J Hans C de Groot, William J DeLuca, Thomas H Dorrepaal, Ellen Fetcher, Ned Finlay, Jacques C Forbes, Bruce C French, Nancy H F Gauthier, Sylvie Girardin, Martin P Goetz, Scott J Goldammer, Johann G Gough, Laura Grogan, Paul Guo, Laodong Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment |
topic_facet |
Arctic boreal coastal erosion dissolved organic carbon particulate organic carbon permafrost carbon wildfire |
description |
As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Abbott, Benjamin W Jones, Jeremy B Schuur, Edward A G Chapin III, F Stuart Bowden, William B Bret-Harte, M Syndonia Epstein, Howard E Flannigan, Michael D Harms, Tamara K Hollingsworth, Teresa N Mack, Michelle C McGuire, A David Natali, Susan M Rocha, Adrian V Tank, Suzanne E Turetsky, Merritt R Vonk, Jorien E Wickland, Kimberly P Aiken, George R Alexander, Heather D Amon, Rainer M W Benscoter, Brian W Bergeron, Yves Bishop, Kevin Blarquez, Olivier Bond-Lamberty, Ben Breen, Amy L Buffam, Ishi Cai, Yihua Carcaillet, Christopher Carey, Sean K Chen, Jing M Chen, Han Y H Christensen, Torben R Cooper, Lee W Cornelissen, J Hans C de Groot, William J DeLuca, Thomas H Dorrepaal, Ellen Fetcher, Ned Finlay, Jacques C Forbes, Bruce C French, Nancy H F Gauthier, Sylvie Girardin, Martin P Goetz, Scott J Goldammer, Johann G Gough, Laura Grogan, Paul Guo, Laodong |
author_facet |
Abbott, Benjamin W Jones, Jeremy B Schuur, Edward A G Chapin III, F Stuart Bowden, William B Bret-Harte, M Syndonia Epstein, Howard E Flannigan, Michael D Harms, Tamara K Hollingsworth, Teresa N Mack, Michelle C McGuire, A David Natali, Susan M Rocha, Adrian V Tank, Suzanne E Turetsky, Merritt R Vonk, Jorien E Wickland, Kimberly P Aiken, George R Alexander, Heather D Amon, Rainer M W Benscoter, Brian W Bergeron, Yves Bishop, Kevin Blarquez, Olivier Bond-Lamberty, Ben Breen, Amy L Buffam, Ishi Cai, Yihua Carcaillet, Christopher Carey, Sean K Chen, Jing M Chen, Han Y H Christensen, Torben R Cooper, Lee W Cornelissen, J Hans C de Groot, William J DeLuca, Thomas H Dorrepaal, Ellen Fetcher, Ned Finlay, Jacques C Forbes, Bruce C French, Nancy H F Gauthier, Sylvie Girardin, Martin P Goetz, Scott J Goldammer, Johann G Gough, Laura Grogan, Paul Guo, Laodong |
author_sort |
Abbott, Benjamin W |
title |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment |
title_short |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment |
title_full |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment |
title_fullStr |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment |
title_full_unstemmed |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment |
title_sort |
biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://depositum.uqat.ca/id/eprint/1146/ https://depositum.uqat.ca/id/eprint/1146/1/abbottetal_erl_mars2016.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326%2F11%2F3%2F034014 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change permafrost |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change permafrost |
op_relation |
https://depositum.uqat.ca/id/eprint/1146/1/abbottetal_erl_mars2016.pdf Abbott, Benjamin W, Jones, Jeremy B, Schuur, Edward A G, Chapin III, F Stuart, Bowden, William B, Bret-Harte, M Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E, Flannigan, Michael D, Harms, Tamara K, Hollingsworth, Teresa N, Mack, Michelle C, McGuire, A David, Natali, Susan M, Rocha, Adrian V, Tank, Suzanne E, Turetsky, Merritt R, Vonk, Jorien E, Wickland, Kimberly P, Aiken, George R, Alexander, Heather D, Amon, Rainer M W, Benscoter, Brian W, Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L, Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K, Chen, Jing M, Chen, Han Y H, Christensen, Torben R, Cooper, Lee W, Cornelissen, J Hans C, de Groot, William J, DeLuca, Thomas H, Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C, Forbes, Bruce C, French, Nancy H F, Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P, Goetz, Scott J, Goldammer, Johann G, Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E, Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E, Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F, Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S, Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W, Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W, Mann, Paul J, Martikainen, Pertti J, McClelland, James W, Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F, Olefeldt, David, Paré, David, Parisien, Marc-André, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S, Rastetter, Edward B, Raymond, Peter A, Raynolds, Martha K, Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F, Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M, Schädel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K, Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G M, Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G, Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J, Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M et Zimov, Sergei (2016). Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment. Environmental Research Letters , 11 (3). 034014. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 <https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326%2F11%2F3%2F034014> Repéré dans Depositum à https://depositum.uqat.ca/id/eprint/1146 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326%2F11%2F3%2F034014 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 |
_version_ |
1766325963678810112 |
spelling |
ftunivquebecat:oai:depositum.uqat.ca:1146 2023-05-15T14:54:14+02:00 Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment Abbott, Benjamin W Jones, Jeremy B Schuur, Edward A G Chapin III, F Stuart Bowden, William B Bret-Harte, M Syndonia Epstein, Howard E Flannigan, Michael D Harms, Tamara K Hollingsworth, Teresa N Mack, Michelle C McGuire, A David Natali, Susan M Rocha, Adrian V Tank, Suzanne E Turetsky, Merritt R Vonk, Jorien E Wickland, Kimberly P Aiken, George R Alexander, Heather D Amon, Rainer M W Benscoter, Brian W Bergeron, Yves Bishop, Kevin Blarquez, Olivier Bond-Lamberty, Ben Breen, Amy L Buffam, Ishi Cai, Yihua Carcaillet, Christopher Carey, Sean K Chen, Jing M Chen, Han Y H Christensen, Torben R Cooper, Lee W Cornelissen, J Hans C de Groot, William J DeLuca, Thomas H Dorrepaal, Ellen Fetcher, Ned Finlay, Jacques C Forbes, Bruce C French, Nancy H F Gauthier, Sylvie Girardin, Martin P Goetz, Scott J Goldammer, Johann G Gough, Laura Grogan, Paul Guo, Laodong 2016-03-07 application/pdf https://depositum.uqat.ca/id/eprint/1146/ https://depositum.uqat.ca/id/eprint/1146/1/abbottetal_erl_mars2016.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326%2F11%2F3%2F034014 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 en eng https://depositum.uqat.ca/id/eprint/1146/1/abbottetal_erl_mars2016.pdf Abbott, Benjamin W, Jones, Jeremy B, Schuur, Edward A G, Chapin III, F Stuart, Bowden, William B, Bret-Harte, M Syndonia, Epstein, Howard E, Flannigan, Michael D, Harms, Tamara K, Hollingsworth, Teresa N, Mack, Michelle C, McGuire, A David, Natali, Susan M, Rocha, Adrian V, Tank, Suzanne E, Turetsky, Merritt R, Vonk, Jorien E, Wickland, Kimberly P, Aiken, George R, Alexander, Heather D, Amon, Rainer M W, Benscoter, Brian W, Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L, Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K, Chen, Jing M, Chen, Han Y H, Christensen, Torben R, Cooper, Lee W, Cornelissen, J Hans C, de Groot, William J, DeLuca, Thomas H, Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C, Forbes, Bruce C, French, Nancy H F, Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P, Goetz, Scott J, Goldammer, Johann G, Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E, Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E, Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F, Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S, Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W, Kortelainen, Pirkko, Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W, Mann, Paul J, Martikainen, Pertti J, McClelland, James W, Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F, Olefeldt, David, Paré, David, Parisien, Marc-André, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg S, Rastetter, Edward B, Raymond, Peter A, Raynolds, Martha K, Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F, Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M, Schädel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K, Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G M, Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G, Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J, Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M et Zimov, Sergei (2016). Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment. Environmental Research Letters , 11 (3). 034014. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 <https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326%2F11%2F3%2F034014> Repéré dans Depositum à https://depositum.uqat.ca/id/eprint/1146 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 Arctic boreal coastal erosion dissolved organic carbon particulate organic carbon permafrost carbon wildfire Article Évalué par les pairs 2016 ftunivquebecat https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326%2F11%2F3%2F034014 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 2022-07-11T11:40:39Z As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change permafrost Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT): Depositum Arctic |