Entry of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus into Europe through migratory wild birds: a qualitative release assessment at the species level
AimsTo estimate qualitatively the probabilities of release (or entry) of Eurasian lineage H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus into Great Britain (GB), the Netherlands and Italy through selected higher risk species of migratory water bird.Methods and ResultsThe probabilities of one or...
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ftunivqespace:oai:espace.library.uq.edu.au:UQ:6976592 2023-05-15T15:59:50+02:00 Entry of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus into Europe through migratory wild birds: a qualitative release assessment at the species level Gale, P. Goddard, A. Breed, A. C. Irvine, R. M. Kelly, L. Snary, E. L. 2014-06-01 https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:6976592 eng eng Wiley-Blackwell Publishing doi:10.1111/jam.12489 issn:1364-5072 issn:1365-2672 orcid:0000-0002-3439-9510 SSPE-CT-2007-044429 Cygnus-Cygnus Whooper Swans Spread Outbreaks Poultry Ducks Transmission Infections Japan Rates Journal Article 2014 ftunivqespace https://doi.org/10.1111/jam.12489 2020-12-29T01:43:53Z AimsTo estimate qualitatively the probabilities of release (or entry) of Eurasian lineage H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus into Great Britain (GB), the Netherlands and Italy through selected higher risk species of migratory water bird.Methods and ResultsThe probabilities of one or more release events of H5N1 HPAI per year (P-release) were estimated qualitatively for 15 avian species, including swans, geese, ducks and gulls, by assessing the prevalence of H5N1 HPAI in different regions of the world (weighted to 2009) and estimates of the total numbers of birds migrating from each of those regions. The release assessment accommodated the migration times for each species in relation to the probabilities of their surviving infection and shedding virus on arrival. Although the predicted probabilities of release of H5N1 per individual bird per year were low, very low or negligible, P-release was high for a few species reflecting the high numbers of birds migrating from some regions. Values of P-release were generally higher for the Netherlands than for GB, while ducks and gulls from Africa presented higher probabilities to Italy compared to the Netherlands and GB.ConclusionsBird species with high values of P-release in GB, the Netherlands and Italy generally originate from within Europe based on data for global prevalence of H5N1 between 2003 and 2009 weighted to 2009. Potential long-distance transfer of H5N1 HPAI from North Asia and Eurasia to GB, the Netherlands and Italy is limited to a few species and does not occur from South-East Asia, an area where H5N1 is endemic.Significance and Impact of the StudyThe approach accommodates biogeographical conditions and variability in the estimated worldwide prevalence of the virus. The outputs of this release assessment can be used to inform surveillance activities through focusing on certain species and migratory pathways. Article in Journal/Newspaper Cygnus cygnus The University of Queensland: UQ eSpace Journal of Applied Microbiology 116 6 1405 1417 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
The University of Queensland: UQ eSpace |
op_collection_id |
ftunivqespace |
language |
English |
topic |
Cygnus-Cygnus Whooper Swans Spread Outbreaks Poultry Ducks Transmission Infections Japan Rates |
spellingShingle |
Cygnus-Cygnus Whooper Swans Spread Outbreaks Poultry Ducks Transmission Infections Japan Rates Gale, P. Goddard, A. Breed, A. C. Irvine, R. M. Kelly, L. Snary, E. L. Entry of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus into Europe through migratory wild birds: a qualitative release assessment at the species level |
topic_facet |
Cygnus-Cygnus Whooper Swans Spread Outbreaks Poultry Ducks Transmission Infections Japan Rates |
description |
AimsTo estimate qualitatively the probabilities of release (or entry) of Eurasian lineage H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus into Great Britain (GB), the Netherlands and Italy through selected higher risk species of migratory water bird.Methods and ResultsThe probabilities of one or more release events of H5N1 HPAI per year (P-release) were estimated qualitatively for 15 avian species, including swans, geese, ducks and gulls, by assessing the prevalence of H5N1 HPAI in different regions of the world (weighted to 2009) and estimates of the total numbers of birds migrating from each of those regions. The release assessment accommodated the migration times for each species in relation to the probabilities of their surviving infection and shedding virus on arrival. Although the predicted probabilities of release of H5N1 per individual bird per year were low, very low or negligible, P-release was high for a few species reflecting the high numbers of birds migrating from some regions. Values of P-release were generally higher for the Netherlands than for GB, while ducks and gulls from Africa presented higher probabilities to Italy compared to the Netherlands and GB.ConclusionsBird species with high values of P-release in GB, the Netherlands and Italy generally originate from within Europe based on data for global prevalence of H5N1 between 2003 and 2009 weighted to 2009. Potential long-distance transfer of H5N1 HPAI from North Asia and Eurasia to GB, the Netherlands and Italy is limited to a few species and does not occur from South-East Asia, an area where H5N1 is endemic.Significance and Impact of the StudyThe approach accommodates biogeographical conditions and variability in the estimated worldwide prevalence of the virus. The outputs of this release assessment can be used to inform surveillance activities through focusing on certain species and migratory pathways. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gale, P. Goddard, A. Breed, A. C. Irvine, R. M. Kelly, L. Snary, E. L. |
author_facet |
Gale, P. Goddard, A. Breed, A. C. Irvine, R. M. Kelly, L. Snary, E. L. |
author_sort |
Gale, P. |
title |
Entry of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus into Europe through migratory wild birds: a qualitative release assessment at the species level |
title_short |
Entry of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus into Europe through migratory wild birds: a qualitative release assessment at the species level |
title_full |
Entry of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus into Europe through migratory wild birds: a qualitative release assessment at the species level |
title_fullStr |
Entry of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus into Europe through migratory wild birds: a qualitative release assessment at the species level |
title_full_unstemmed |
Entry of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus into Europe through migratory wild birds: a qualitative release assessment at the species level |
title_sort |
entry of h5n1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus into europe through migratory wild birds: a qualitative release assessment at the species level |
publisher |
Wiley-Blackwell Publishing |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:6976592 |
genre |
Cygnus cygnus |
genre_facet |
Cygnus cygnus |
op_relation |
doi:10.1111/jam.12489 issn:1364-5072 issn:1365-2672 orcid:0000-0002-3439-9510 SSPE-CT-2007-044429 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/jam.12489 |
container_title |
Journal of Applied Microbiology |
container_volume |
116 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
1405 |
op_container_end_page |
1417 |
_version_ |
1766395733821358080 |