Rapid climate-driven loss of breeding habitat for Arctic migratory birds
Millions of birds migrate to and from the Arctic each year, but rapid climate change in the High North could strongly affect where species are able to breed, disrupting migratory connections globally. We modelled the climatically suitable breeding conditions of 24 Arctic specialist shorebirds and pr...
Published in: | Global Change Biology |
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Language: | English |
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Wiley-Blackwell Publishing
2017
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ftunivqespace:oai:espace.library.uq.edu.au:UQ:482775 2023-05-15T14:29:30+02:00 Rapid climate-driven loss of breeding habitat for Arctic migratory birds Wauchope, Hannah S. Shaw, Justine D. Varpe, Oystein Lappo, Elena G. Boertmann, David Lanctot, Richard B. Fuller, Richard A. 2017-03-01 https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:482775/UQ482775_OA.pdf https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:482775/UQ482775_OA_supp.pdf https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:482775 eng eng Wiley-Blackwell Publishing doi:10.1111/gcb.13404 issn:1365-2486 issn:1354-1013 orcid:0000-0002-9603-2271 orcid:0000-0001-9468-9678 LP150101059 Not set Beringia Flyway Maxent Mid-Holocene Protected areas Shorebirds Species distribution modelling Waders 2300 Environmental Science 2303 Ecology 2304 Environmental Chemistry 2306 Global and Planetary Change Journal Article 2017 ftunivqespace https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13404 2020-12-29T00:23:51Z Millions of birds migrate to and from the Arctic each year, but rapid climate change in the High North could strongly affect where species are able to breed, disrupting migratory connections globally. We modelled the climatically suitable breeding conditions of 24 Arctic specialist shorebirds and projected them to 2070 and to the mid-Holocene climatic optimum, the world's last major warming event ~6000 years ago. We show that climatically suitable breeding conditions could shift, contract and decline over the next 70 years, with 66–83% of species losing the majority of currently suitable area. This exceeds, in rate and magnitude, the impact of the mid-Holocene climatic optimum. Suitable climatic conditions are predicted to decline acutely in the most species rich region, Beringia (western Alaska and eastern Russia), and become concentrated in the Eurasian and Canadian Arctic islands. These predicted spatial shifts of breeding grounds could affect the species composition of the world's major flyways. Encouragingly, protected area coverage of current and future climatically suitable breeding conditions generally meets target levels; however, there is a lack of protected areas within the Canadian Arctic where resource exploitation is a growing threat. Given that already there are rapid declines of many populations of Arctic migratory birds, our results emphasize the urgency of mitigating climate change and protecting Arctic biodiversity. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic biodiversity Arctic Climate change Alaska Beringia The University of Queensland: UQ eSpace Arctic Global Change Biology 23 3 1085 1094 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
The University of Queensland: UQ eSpace |
op_collection_id |
ftunivqespace |
language |
English |
topic |
Beringia Flyway Maxent Mid-Holocene Protected areas Shorebirds Species distribution modelling Waders 2300 Environmental Science 2303 Ecology 2304 Environmental Chemistry 2306 Global and Planetary Change |
spellingShingle |
Beringia Flyway Maxent Mid-Holocene Protected areas Shorebirds Species distribution modelling Waders 2300 Environmental Science 2303 Ecology 2304 Environmental Chemistry 2306 Global and Planetary Change Wauchope, Hannah S. Shaw, Justine D. Varpe, Oystein Lappo, Elena G. Boertmann, David Lanctot, Richard B. Fuller, Richard A. Rapid climate-driven loss of breeding habitat for Arctic migratory birds |
topic_facet |
Beringia Flyway Maxent Mid-Holocene Protected areas Shorebirds Species distribution modelling Waders 2300 Environmental Science 2303 Ecology 2304 Environmental Chemistry 2306 Global and Planetary Change |
description |
Millions of birds migrate to and from the Arctic each year, but rapid climate change in the High North could strongly affect where species are able to breed, disrupting migratory connections globally. We modelled the climatically suitable breeding conditions of 24 Arctic specialist shorebirds and projected them to 2070 and to the mid-Holocene climatic optimum, the world's last major warming event ~6000 years ago. We show that climatically suitable breeding conditions could shift, contract and decline over the next 70 years, with 66–83% of species losing the majority of currently suitable area. This exceeds, in rate and magnitude, the impact of the mid-Holocene climatic optimum. Suitable climatic conditions are predicted to decline acutely in the most species rich region, Beringia (western Alaska and eastern Russia), and become concentrated in the Eurasian and Canadian Arctic islands. These predicted spatial shifts of breeding grounds could affect the species composition of the world's major flyways. Encouragingly, protected area coverage of current and future climatically suitable breeding conditions generally meets target levels; however, there is a lack of protected areas within the Canadian Arctic where resource exploitation is a growing threat. Given that already there are rapid declines of many populations of Arctic migratory birds, our results emphasize the urgency of mitigating climate change and protecting Arctic biodiversity. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wauchope, Hannah S. Shaw, Justine D. Varpe, Oystein Lappo, Elena G. Boertmann, David Lanctot, Richard B. Fuller, Richard A. |
author_facet |
Wauchope, Hannah S. Shaw, Justine D. Varpe, Oystein Lappo, Elena G. Boertmann, David Lanctot, Richard B. Fuller, Richard A. |
author_sort |
Wauchope, Hannah S. |
title |
Rapid climate-driven loss of breeding habitat for Arctic migratory birds |
title_short |
Rapid climate-driven loss of breeding habitat for Arctic migratory birds |
title_full |
Rapid climate-driven loss of breeding habitat for Arctic migratory birds |
title_fullStr |
Rapid climate-driven loss of breeding habitat for Arctic migratory birds |
title_full_unstemmed |
Rapid climate-driven loss of breeding habitat for Arctic migratory birds |
title_sort |
rapid climate-driven loss of breeding habitat for arctic migratory birds |
publisher |
Wiley-Blackwell Publishing |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:482775/UQ482775_OA.pdf https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:482775/UQ482775_OA_supp.pdf https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:482775 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic biodiversity Arctic Climate change Alaska Beringia |
genre_facet |
Arctic biodiversity Arctic Climate change Alaska Beringia |
op_relation |
doi:10.1111/gcb.13404 issn:1365-2486 issn:1354-1013 orcid:0000-0002-9603-2271 orcid:0000-0001-9468-9678 LP150101059 Not set |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13404 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
23 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
1085 |
op_container_end_page |
1094 |
_version_ |
1766303500105416704 |