Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change
Historical harvesting pushed many whale species to the brink of extinction. Although most Southern Hemisphere populations are slowly recovering, the influence of future climate change on their recovery remains unknown. We investigate the impacts of two anthropogenic pressures-historical commercial w...
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Online Access: | https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:27781a4 |
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ftunivqespace:oai:espace.library.uq.edu.au:UQ:27781a4 2023-05-15T13:58:28+02:00 Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change Tulloch, Vivitskaia J. D. Plagányi, Éva E. Brown, Christopher Richardson, Anthony J. Matear, Richard 2019-04-01 https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:27781a4 eng eng Wiley-Blackwell doi:10.1111/gcb.14573 issn:1354-1013 issn:1365-2486 orcid:0000-0002-7673-3716 orcid:0000-0002-9289-7366 Not set DE160101207 Ecology Global and Planetary Change General Environmental Science Environmental Chemistry 2300 Environmental Science 2303 Ecology 2304 Environmental Chemistry 2306 Global and Planetary Change Journal Article 2019 ftunivqespace https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14573 2020-12-22T14:14:26Z Historical harvesting pushed many whale species to the brink of extinction. Although most Southern Hemisphere populations are slowly recovering, the influence of future climate change on their recovery remains unknown. We investigate the impacts of two anthropogenic pressures-historical commercial whaling and future climate change-on populations of baleen whales (blue, fin, humpback, Antarctic minke, southern right) and their prey (krill and copepods) in the Southern Ocean. We use a climate-biological coupled "Model of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem Assessments" (MICE) that links krill and whale population dynamics with climate change drivers, including changes in ocean temperature, primary productivity and sea ice. Models predict negative future impacts of climate change on krill and all whale species, although the magnitude of impacts on whales differs among populations. Despite initial recovery from historical whaling, models predict concerning declines under climate change, even local extinctions by 2100, for Pacific populations of blue, fin and southern right whales, and Atlantic/Indian fin and humpback whales. Predicted declines were a consequence of reduced prey (copepods/krill) from warming and increasing interspecific competition between whale species. We model whale population recovery under an alternative scenario whereby whales adapt their migratory patterns to accommodate changing sea ice in the Antarctic and a shifting prey base. Plasticity in range size and migration was predicted to improve recovery for ice-associated blue and minke whales. Our study highlights the need for ongoing protection to help depleted whale populations recover, as well as local management to ensure the krill prey base remains viable, but this may have limited success without immediate action to reduce emissions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic baleen whales Sea ice Southern Ocean Copepods The University of Queensland: UQ eSpace Antarctic Indian Pacific Southern Ocean The Antarctic Global Change Biology 25 4 1263 1281 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
The University of Queensland: UQ eSpace |
op_collection_id |
ftunivqespace |
language |
English |
topic |
Ecology Global and Planetary Change General Environmental Science Environmental Chemistry 2300 Environmental Science 2303 Ecology 2304 Environmental Chemistry 2306 Global and Planetary Change |
spellingShingle |
Ecology Global and Planetary Change General Environmental Science Environmental Chemistry 2300 Environmental Science 2303 Ecology 2304 Environmental Chemistry 2306 Global and Planetary Change Tulloch, Vivitskaia J. D. Plagányi, Éva E. Brown, Christopher Richardson, Anthony J. Matear, Richard Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change |
topic_facet |
Ecology Global and Planetary Change General Environmental Science Environmental Chemistry 2300 Environmental Science 2303 Ecology 2304 Environmental Chemistry 2306 Global and Planetary Change |
description |
Historical harvesting pushed many whale species to the brink of extinction. Although most Southern Hemisphere populations are slowly recovering, the influence of future climate change on their recovery remains unknown. We investigate the impacts of two anthropogenic pressures-historical commercial whaling and future climate change-on populations of baleen whales (blue, fin, humpback, Antarctic minke, southern right) and their prey (krill and copepods) in the Southern Ocean. We use a climate-biological coupled "Model of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystem Assessments" (MICE) that links krill and whale population dynamics with climate change drivers, including changes in ocean temperature, primary productivity and sea ice. Models predict negative future impacts of climate change on krill and all whale species, although the magnitude of impacts on whales differs among populations. Despite initial recovery from historical whaling, models predict concerning declines under climate change, even local extinctions by 2100, for Pacific populations of blue, fin and southern right whales, and Atlantic/Indian fin and humpback whales. Predicted declines were a consequence of reduced prey (copepods/krill) from warming and increasing interspecific competition between whale species. We model whale population recovery under an alternative scenario whereby whales adapt their migratory patterns to accommodate changing sea ice in the Antarctic and a shifting prey base. Plasticity in range size and migration was predicted to improve recovery for ice-associated blue and minke whales. Our study highlights the need for ongoing protection to help depleted whale populations recover, as well as local management to ensure the krill prey base remains viable, but this may have limited success without immediate action to reduce emissions. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Tulloch, Vivitskaia J. D. Plagányi, Éva E. Brown, Christopher Richardson, Anthony J. Matear, Richard |
author_facet |
Tulloch, Vivitskaia J. D. Plagányi, Éva E. Brown, Christopher Richardson, Anthony J. Matear, Richard |
author_sort |
Tulloch, Vivitskaia J. D. |
title |
Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change |
title_short |
Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change |
title_full |
Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change |
title_fullStr |
Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change |
title_sort |
future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change |
publisher |
Wiley-Blackwell |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:27781a4 |
geographic |
Antarctic Indian Pacific Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Indian Pacific Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic baleen whales Sea ice Southern Ocean Copepods |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic baleen whales Sea ice Southern Ocean Copepods |
op_relation |
doi:10.1111/gcb.14573 issn:1354-1013 issn:1365-2486 orcid:0000-0002-7673-3716 orcid:0000-0002-9289-7366 Not set DE160101207 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14573 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
25 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1263 |
op_container_end_page |
1281 |
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1766266789044420608 |