Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones and its ecosystem impacts
Tropical cyclones have massive economic, social, and ecological impacts, and models of their occurrence influence many planning activities from setting insurance premiums to conservation planning. Most impact models allow for geographically varying cyclone rates but assume that individual storm even...
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ftunivqespace:oai:espace.library.uq.edu.au:UQ:261808 2023-05-15T17:30:53+02:00 Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones and its ecosystem impacts Mumby, Peter J. Vitolo, Renato Stephenson, David B. Brian John Hoskins 2011-10-25 https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:261808 eng eng National Academy of Sciences doi:10.1073/pnas.1100436108 issn:0027-8424 issn:1091-6490 orcid:0000-0002-6297-9053 Climate change Climate variability Multidecadal variability Atlantic hurricane activity Caribbean coral-reefs Mass mortality Return periods North-atlantic Climate-change Disturbance Forest Dynamics Recovery 1000 General Journal Article 2011 ftunivqespace https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1100436108 2020-10-27T01:13:54Z Tropical cyclones have massive economic, social, and ecological impacts, and models of their occurrence influence many planning activities from setting insurance premiums to conservation planning. Most impact models allow for geographically varying cyclone rates but assume that individual storm events occur randomly with constant rate in time. This study analyzes the statistical properties of Atlantic tropical cyclones and shows that local cyclone counts vary in time, with periods of elevated activity followed by relative quiescence. Such temporal clustering is particularly strong in the Caribbean Sea, along the coasts of Belize, Honduras, Costa Rica, Jamaica, the southwest of Haiti, and in the main hurricane development region in the North Atlantic between Africa and the Caribbean. Failing to recognize this natural nonstationarity in cyclone rates can give inaccurate impact predictions. We demonstrate this by exploring cyclone impacts on coral reefs. For a given cyclone rate, we find that clustered events have a less detrimental impact than independent random events. Predictions using a standard random hurricane model were overly pessimistic, predicting reef degradation more than a decade earlier than that expected under clustered disturbance. The presence of clustering allows coral reefs more time to recover to healthier states, but the impacts of clustering will vary from one ecosystem to another. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic The University of Queensland: UQ eSpace Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108 43 17626 17630 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
The University of Queensland: UQ eSpace |
op_collection_id |
ftunivqespace |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate change Climate variability Multidecadal variability Atlantic hurricane activity Caribbean coral-reefs Mass mortality Return periods North-atlantic Climate-change Disturbance Forest Dynamics Recovery 1000 General |
spellingShingle |
Climate change Climate variability Multidecadal variability Atlantic hurricane activity Caribbean coral-reefs Mass mortality Return periods North-atlantic Climate-change Disturbance Forest Dynamics Recovery 1000 General Mumby, Peter J. Vitolo, Renato Stephenson, David B. Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones and its ecosystem impacts |
topic_facet |
Climate change Climate variability Multidecadal variability Atlantic hurricane activity Caribbean coral-reefs Mass mortality Return periods North-atlantic Climate-change Disturbance Forest Dynamics Recovery 1000 General |
description |
Tropical cyclones have massive economic, social, and ecological impacts, and models of their occurrence influence many planning activities from setting insurance premiums to conservation planning. Most impact models allow for geographically varying cyclone rates but assume that individual storm events occur randomly with constant rate in time. This study analyzes the statistical properties of Atlantic tropical cyclones and shows that local cyclone counts vary in time, with periods of elevated activity followed by relative quiescence. Such temporal clustering is particularly strong in the Caribbean Sea, along the coasts of Belize, Honduras, Costa Rica, Jamaica, the southwest of Haiti, and in the main hurricane development region in the North Atlantic between Africa and the Caribbean. Failing to recognize this natural nonstationarity in cyclone rates can give inaccurate impact predictions. We demonstrate this by exploring cyclone impacts on coral reefs. For a given cyclone rate, we find that clustered events have a less detrimental impact than independent random events. Predictions using a standard random hurricane model were overly pessimistic, predicting reef degradation more than a decade earlier than that expected under clustered disturbance. The presence of clustering allows coral reefs more time to recover to healthier states, but the impacts of clustering will vary from one ecosystem to another. |
author2 |
Brian John Hoskins |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mumby, Peter J. Vitolo, Renato Stephenson, David B. |
author_facet |
Mumby, Peter J. Vitolo, Renato Stephenson, David B. |
author_sort |
Mumby, Peter J. |
title |
Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones and its ecosystem impacts |
title_short |
Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones and its ecosystem impacts |
title_full |
Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones and its ecosystem impacts |
title_fullStr |
Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones and its ecosystem impacts |
title_full_unstemmed |
Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones and its ecosystem impacts |
title_sort |
temporal clustering of tropical cyclones and its ecosystem impacts |
publisher |
National Academy of Sciences |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:261808 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
doi:10.1073/pnas.1100436108 issn:0027-8424 issn:1091-6490 orcid:0000-0002-6297-9053 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1100436108 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
container_volume |
108 |
container_issue |
43 |
container_start_page |
17626 |
op_container_end_page |
17630 |
_version_ |
1766128019583270912 |