Scenarios of diffusion and control of an influenza pandemic in Italy
To predict the spread of a pandemic strain of influenza virus in Italy and the impact of control measures, we developed a susceptible-exposed, but not yet infectious-infectious-recovered, and no longer susceptible (SEIR) deterministic model with a stochastic simulation component. We modelled the imp...
Published in: | Epidemiology and Infection |
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/11568/121560 https://doi.org/10.1017/S095026880800037X |
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ftunivpisairis:oai:arpi.unipi.it:11568/121560 2024-06-23T07:51:27+00:00 Scenarios of diffusion and control of an influenza pandemic in Italy Rizzo C. Lunelli A. Pugliese A. Bella A. Scalia Tomba G. Iannelli M. Ciofi Degli Atti M. L. MANFREDI, PIETRO ANGELO MANFREDO FRANCESCO Rizzo, C. Lunelli, A. Pugliese, A. Bella, A. Manfredi, PIETRO ANGELO MANFREDO FRANCESCO Scalia Tomba, G. Iannelli, M. Ciofi Degli Atti, M. L. 2008 STAMPA http://hdl.handle.net/11568/121560 https://doi.org/10.1017/S095026880800037X eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/18272019 volume:136 issue:12 firstpage:1650 lastpage:1657 numberofpages:8 journal:EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION http://hdl.handle.net/11568/121560 doi:10.1017/S095026880800037X avian flu containment and mitigation mathematical model age and spatial heterogeneity info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2008 ftunivpisairis https://doi.org/10.1017/S095026880800037X 2024-06-03T23:51:29Z To predict the spread of a pandemic strain of influenza virus in Italy and the impact of control measures, we developed a susceptible-exposed, but not yet infectious-infectious-recovered, and no longer susceptible (SEIR) deterministic model with a stochastic simulation component. We modelled the impact of control measures such as vaccination, antiviral prophylaxis and social distancing measures. In the absence of control measures, the epidemic peak would be reached about 4 months after the importation of the first cases in Italy, and the epidemic would last about 7 months. When combined, the control measures would reduce the cumulative attack rate to about 4.2%, at best, although this would require an extremely high number of treated individuals. In accordance with international findings, our results highlight the need to respond to a pandemic with a combination of control measures. Article in Journal/Newspaper Avian flu ARPI - Archivio della Ricerca dell'Università di Pisa Epidemiology and Infection 136 12 1650 1657 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
ARPI - Archivio della Ricerca dell'Università di Pisa |
op_collection_id |
ftunivpisairis |
language |
English |
topic |
avian flu containment and mitigation mathematical model age and spatial heterogeneity |
spellingShingle |
avian flu containment and mitigation mathematical model age and spatial heterogeneity Rizzo C. Lunelli A. Pugliese A. Bella A. Scalia Tomba G. Iannelli M. Ciofi Degli Atti M. L. MANFREDI, PIETRO ANGELO MANFREDO FRANCESCO Scenarios of diffusion and control of an influenza pandemic in Italy |
topic_facet |
avian flu containment and mitigation mathematical model age and spatial heterogeneity |
description |
To predict the spread of a pandemic strain of influenza virus in Italy and the impact of control measures, we developed a susceptible-exposed, but not yet infectious-infectious-recovered, and no longer susceptible (SEIR) deterministic model with a stochastic simulation component. We modelled the impact of control measures such as vaccination, antiviral prophylaxis and social distancing measures. In the absence of control measures, the epidemic peak would be reached about 4 months after the importation of the first cases in Italy, and the epidemic would last about 7 months. When combined, the control measures would reduce the cumulative attack rate to about 4.2%, at best, although this would require an extremely high number of treated individuals. In accordance with international findings, our results highlight the need to respond to a pandemic with a combination of control measures. |
author2 |
Rizzo, C. Lunelli, A. Pugliese, A. Bella, A. Manfredi, PIETRO ANGELO MANFREDO FRANCESCO Scalia Tomba, G. Iannelli, M. Ciofi Degli Atti, M. L. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rizzo C. Lunelli A. Pugliese A. Bella A. Scalia Tomba G. Iannelli M. Ciofi Degli Atti M. L. MANFREDI, PIETRO ANGELO MANFREDO FRANCESCO |
author_facet |
Rizzo C. Lunelli A. Pugliese A. Bella A. Scalia Tomba G. Iannelli M. Ciofi Degli Atti M. L. MANFREDI, PIETRO ANGELO MANFREDO FRANCESCO |
author_sort |
Rizzo C. |
title |
Scenarios of diffusion and control of an influenza pandemic in Italy |
title_short |
Scenarios of diffusion and control of an influenza pandemic in Italy |
title_full |
Scenarios of diffusion and control of an influenza pandemic in Italy |
title_fullStr |
Scenarios of diffusion and control of an influenza pandemic in Italy |
title_full_unstemmed |
Scenarios of diffusion and control of an influenza pandemic in Italy |
title_sort |
scenarios of diffusion and control of an influenza pandemic in italy |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11568/121560 https://doi.org/10.1017/S095026880800037X |
genre |
Avian flu |
genre_facet |
Avian flu |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/18272019 volume:136 issue:12 firstpage:1650 lastpage:1657 numberofpages:8 journal:EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION http://hdl.handle.net/11568/121560 doi:10.1017/S095026880800037X |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/S095026880800037X |
container_title |
Epidemiology and Infection |
container_volume |
136 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
1650 |
op_container_end_page |
1657 |
_version_ |
1802642568087863296 |