Assessment of ground motion variability and its effects on seismic hazard analysis: a case study for iceland
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) generally relies on the basic assumption that ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) developed for other similar tectonic regions can be adopted in the considered area. This implies that observed ground motion and its variability at considered sites c...
Published in: | Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2011
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/11571/258508 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-011-9251-9 |
id |
ftunivpavia:oai:iris.unipv.it:11571/258508 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftunivpavia:oai:iris.unipv.it:11571/258508 2024-02-27T08:41:57+00:00 Assessment of ground motion variability and its effects on seismic hazard analysis: a case study for iceland Teraphan Ornthammarath John Douglas Ragnar Sigbjörnsson LAI, CARLO GIOVANNI Teraphan, Ornthammarath John, Dougla Ragnar, Sigbjörnsson Lai, CARLO GIOVANNI 2011 STAMPA http://hdl.handle.net/11571/258508 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-011-9251-9 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000292557700002 volume:9 issue:4 firstpage:931 lastpage:953 numberofpages:23 journal:BULLETIN OF EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING http://hdl.handle.net/11571/258508 doi:10.1007/s10518-011-9251-9 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-79960066205 Seismic hazard analysi GMPE Analysis of variance (ANOVA) Two-way-fit plot Single-station sigma info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2011 ftunivpavia https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-011-9251-9 2024-01-31T17:38:02Z Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) generally relies on the basic assumption that ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) developed for other similar tectonic regions can be adopted in the considered area. This implies that observed ground motion and its variability at considered sites could be modelled by the selected GMPEs. Until now ground-motion variability has been taken into account in PSHA by integrating over the standard deviation reported in GMPEs, which significantly affects estimated ground motions, especially at very low probabilities of exceedance. To provide insight on this issue, ground-motion variability in the South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ), where many ground-motion records are available, is assessed. Three statistical methods are applied to separate the aleatory variability into source (inter-event), site (inter-site) and residual (intra-event and intra-site) components. Furthermore, the current PSHA procedure that makes the ergodic assumption of equality between spatially and temporal variability is examined. In contrast to the ergodic assumption, several recent studies show that the observed ground-motion variability at an individual location is lower than that implied by the standard deviation of a GMPE. This could imply a mishandling of aleatory uncertainty in PSHA by ignoring spatial variability and by mixing aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the computation of sigma. Station correction coefficients are introduced in order to capture site effects at different stations. The introduction of the non-ergodic assumption in PSHA leads to larger epistemic uncertainty, although this is not the same as traditional epistemic uncertainty modelled using different GMPEs. The epistemic uncertainty due to the site correction coefficients (i.e. mean residuals) could be better constrained for future events if more information regarding the characteristics of these seismic sources and path dependence could be obtained. Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland IRIS UNIPV (Università degli studi di Pavia) Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering 9 4 931 953 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
IRIS UNIPV (Università degli studi di Pavia) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivpavia |
language |
English |
topic |
Seismic hazard analysi GMPE Analysis of variance (ANOVA) Two-way-fit plot Single-station sigma |
spellingShingle |
Seismic hazard analysi GMPE Analysis of variance (ANOVA) Two-way-fit plot Single-station sigma Teraphan Ornthammarath John Douglas Ragnar Sigbjörnsson LAI, CARLO GIOVANNI Assessment of ground motion variability and its effects on seismic hazard analysis: a case study for iceland |
topic_facet |
Seismic hazard analysi GMPE Analysis of variance (ANOVA) Two-way-fit plot Single-station sigma |
description |
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) generally relies on the basic assumption that ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) developed for other similar tectonic regions can be adopted in the considered area. This implies that observed ground motion and its variability at considered sites could be modelled by the selected GMPEs. Until now ground-motion variability has been taken into account in PSHA by integrating over the standard deviation reported in GMPEs, which significantly affects estimated ground motions, especially at very low probabilities of exceedance. To provide insight on this issue, ground-motion variability in the South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ), where many ground-motion records are available, is assessed. Three statistical methods are applied to separate the aleatory variability into source (inter-event), site (inter-site) and residual (intra-event and intra-site) components. Furthermore, the current PSHA procedure that makes the ergodic assumption of equality between spatially and temporal variability is examined. In contrast to the ergodic assumption, several recent studies show that the observed ground-motion variability at an individual location is lower than that implied by the standard deviation of a GMPE. This could imply a mishandling of aleatory uncertainty in PSHA by ignoring spatial variability and by mixing aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the computation of sigma. Station correction coefficients are introduced in order to capture site effects at different stations. The introduction of the non-ergodic assumption in PSHA leads to larger epistemic uncertainty, although this is not the same as traditional epistemic uncertainty modelled using different GMPEs. The epistemic uncertainty due to the site correction coefficients (i.e. mean residuals) could be better constrained for future events if more information regarding the characteristics of these seismic sources and path dependence could be obtained. |
author2 |
Teraphan, Ornthammarath John, Dougla Ragnar, Sigbjörnsson Lai, CARLO GIOVANNI |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Teraphan Ornthammarath John Douglas Ragnar Sigbjörnsson LAI, CARLO GIOVANNI |
author_facet |
Teraphan Ornthammarath John Douglas Ragnar Sigbjörnsson LAI, CARLO GIOVANNI |
author_sort |
Teraphan Ornthammarath |
title |
Assessment of ground motion variability and its effects on seismic hazard analysis: a case study for iceland |
title_short |
Assessment of ground motion variability and its effects on seismic hazard analysis: a case study for iceland |
title_full |
Assessment of ground motion variability and its effects on seismic hazard analysis: a case study for iceland |
title_fullStr |
Assessment of ground motion variability and its effects on seismic hazard analysis: a case study for iceland |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessment of ground motion variability and its effects on seismic hazard analysis: a case study for iceland |
title_sort |
assessment of ground motion variability and its effects on seismic hazard analysis: a case study for iceland |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11571/258508 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-011-9251-9 |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000292557700002 volume:9 issue:4 firstpage:931 lastpage:953 numberofpages:23 journal:BULLETIN OF EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING http://hdl.handle.net/11571/258508 doi:10.1007/s10518-011-9251-9 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-79960066205 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-011-9251-9 |
container_title |
Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
931 |
op_container_end_page |
953 |
_version_ |
1792049337150210048 |