Old World Megadroughts and Pluvials During the Common Era
Climate model projections suggest widespread drying in the Mediterranean Basin and wetting in Fennoscandia in coming decades largely as a consequence of greenhouse gas forcing of climate. To place these and other ‘Old World’ climate projections into historical perspective based on more complete esti...
Published in: | Science Advances |
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/11571/1155102 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500561 http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/10 |
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ftunivpavia:oai:iris.unipv.it:11571/1155102 2024-02-27T08:40:24+00:00 Old World Megadroughts and Pluvials During the Common Era Cook, Edward R. Seager, Richard Kushnir, Yochanan Briffa, Keith R. Büntgen, Ulf Frank, David Krusic, Paul J. Tegel, Willy van der Schrier, Gerard Andreu Hayles, Laia Baillie, Mike Baittinger, Claudia Bleicher, Niels Bonde, Niels Brown, David Carrer, Marco Cooper, Richard Čufar, Katarina Dittmar, Christoph Esper, Jan Griggs, Carol Gunnarson, Björn Günther, Björn Gutierrez, Emilia Haneca, Kristof Helama, Samuli Herzig, Franz Heussner, Karl Uwe Hofman, Jutta Janda, Pavel Kontic, Raymond Köse, Nesibe Kyncl, Tomáš Levanic, Tom Linderholm, Hans Manning, Sturt Melvin, Thomas M. Miles, Daniel Neuwirth, Burkhard Nicolussi, Kurt NOLA, PAOLA Panayotov, Momchil Popa, Ionel Rothe, Andreas Seftigen, Kristina Seim, Andrea Svarva, Helene Svoboda, Miroslav Thun, Terje Timonen, Mauri Touchan, Ramzi Trotsiuk, Volodymyr Trouet, Valerie Walder, Felix Wazny, Tomasz Wilson, Rob Zang, Christian Cook, Edward R. Seager, Richard Kushnir, Yochanan Briffa, Keith R. Büntgen, Ulf Frank, David Krusic, Paul J. Tegel, Willy van der Schrier, Gerard Andreu Hayles, Laia Baillie, Mike Baittinger, Claudia Bleicher, Niel Bonde, Niel Brown, David Carrer, Marco Cooper, Richard Čufar, Katarina Dittmar, Christoph Esper, Jan Griggs, Carol Gunnarson, Björn Günther, Björn Gutierrez, Emilia Haneca, Kristof Helama, Samuli Herzig, Franz Heussner, Karl Uwe Hofman, Jutta Janda, Pavel Kontic, Raymond Köse, Nesibe Kyncl, Tomáš Levanic, Tom Linderholm, Han Manning, Sturt Melvin, Thomas M. Miles, Daniel Neuwirth, Burkhard Nicolussi, Kurt Nola, Paola Panayotov, Momchil Popa, Ionel Rothe, Andrea Seftigen, Kristina Seim, Andrea Svarva, Helene Svoboda, Miroslav Thun, Terje Timonen, Mauri 2015 ELETTRONICO http://hdl.handle.net/11571/1155102 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500561 http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/10 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000216599300002 volume:1 issue:10 firstpage:1 lastpage:9 numberofpages:9 journal:SCIENCE ADVANCES http://hdl.handle.net/11571/1155102 doi:10.1126/sciadv.1500561 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-84992433804 http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/10 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Dendroclimatology longterm hydroclimatic variability climatic extremes info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2015 ftunivpavia https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500561 2024-01-31T17:44:49Z Climate model projections suggest widespread drying in the Mediterranean Basin and wetting in Fennoscandia in coming decades largely as a consequence of greenhouse gas forcing of climate. To place these and other ‘Old World’ climate projections into historical perspective based on more complete estimates of natural hydroclimatic variability, we have developed the ‘Old World Drought Atlas’ (OWDA), a set of year-to3 year maps of tree-ring reconstructed summer wetness and dryness over Europe and the Mediterranean Basin for the Common Era. The OWDA matches historical accounts of severe drought and wetness with a spatial completeness not previously available. In addition, megadroughts reconstructed over North-central Europe in the 11th and mid-15th centuries reinforce other evidence from North America and Asia that droughts were more severe, extensive, and prolonged over Northern Hemisphere land areas prior to the 20th century with inadequate understanding as to why. The OWDA provides new data for performing detailed data/model comparisons for attributing the causes of Old World drought and wetness due to both forced and internal variability. Article in Journal/Newspaper Fennoscandia IRIS UNIPV (Università degli studi di Pavia) Science Advances 1 10 e1500561 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
IRIS UNIPV (Università degli studi di Pavia) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivpavia |
language |
English |
topic |
Dendroclimatology longterm hydroclimatic variability climatic extremes |
spellingShingle |
Dendroclimatology longterm hydroclimatic variability climatic extremes Cook, Edward R. Seager, Richard Kushnir, Yochanan Briffa, Keith R. Büntgen, Ulf Frank, David Krusic, Paul J. Tegel, Willy van der Schrier, Gerard Andreu Hayles, Laia Baillie, Mike Baittinger, Claudia Bleicher, Niels Bonde, Niels Brown, David Carrer, Marco Cooper, Richard Čufar, Katarina Dittmar, Christoph Esper, Jan Griggs, Carol Gunnarson, Björn Günther, Björn Gutierrez, Emilia Haneca, Kristof Helama, Samuli Herzig, Franz Heussner, Karl Uwe Hofman, Jutta Janda, Pavel Kontic, Raymond Köse, Nesibe Kyncl, Tomáš Levanic, Tom Linderholm, Hans Manning, Sturt Melvin, Thomas M. Miles, Daniel Neuwirth, Burkhard Nicolussi, Kurt NOLA, PAOLA Panayotov, Momchil Popa, Ionel Rothe, Andreas Seftigen, Kristina Seim, Andrea Svarva, Helene Svoboda, Miroslav Thun, Terje Timonen, Mauri Touchan, Ramzi Trotsiuk, Volodymyr Trouet, Valerie Walder, Felix Wazny, Tomasz Wilson, Rob Zang, Christian Old World Megadroughts and Pluvials During the Common Era |
topic_facet |
Dendroclimatology longterm hydroclimatic variability climatic extremes |
description |
Climate model projections suggest widespread drying in the Mediterranean Basin and wetting in Fennoscandia in coming decades largely as a consequence of greenhouse gas forcing of climate. To place these and other ‘Old World’ climate projections into historical perspective based on more complete estimates of natural hydroclimatic variability, we have developed the ‘Old World Drought Atlas’ (OWDA), a set of year-to3 year maps of tree-ring reconstructed summer wetness and dryness over Europe and the Mediterranean Basin for the Common Era. The OWDA matches historical accounts of severe drought and wetness with a spatial completeness not previously available. In addition, megadroughts reconstructed over North-central Europe in the 11th and mid-15th centuries reinforce other evidence from North America and Asia that droughts were more severe, extensive, and prolonged over Northern Hemisphere land areas prior to the 20th century with inadequate understanding as to why. The OWDA provides new data for performing detailed data/model comparisons for attributing the causes of Old World drought and wetness due to both forced and internal variability. |
author2 |
Cook, Edward R. Seager, Richard Kushnir, Yochanan Briffa, Keith R. Büntgen, Ulf Frank, David Krusic, Paul J. Tegel, Willy van der Schrier, Gerard Andreu Hayles, Laia Baillie, Mike Baittinger, Claudia Bleicher, Niel Bonde, Niel Brown, David Carrer, Marco Cooper, Richard Čufar, Katarina Dittmar, Christoph Esper, Jan Griggs, Carol Gunnarson, Björn Günther, Björn Gutierrez, Emilia Haneca, Kristof Helama, Samuli Herzig, Franz Heussner, Karl Uwe Hofman, Jutta Janda, Pavel Kontic, Raymond Köse, Nesibe Kyncl, Tomáš Levanic, Tom Linderholm, Han Manning, Sturt Melvin, Thomas M. Miles, Daniel Neuwirth, Burkhard Nicolussi, Kurt Nola, Paola Panayotov, Momchil Popa, Ionel Rothe, Andrea Seftigen, Kristina Seim, Andrea Svarva, Helene Svoboda, Miroslav Thun, Terje Timonen, Mauri |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Cook, Edward R. Seager, Richard Kushnir, Yochanan Briffa, Keith R. Büntgen, Ulf Frank, David Krusic, Paul J. Tegel, Willy van der Schrier, Gerard Andreu Hayles, Laia Baillie, Mike Baittinger, Claudia Bleicher, Niels Bonde, Niels Brown, David Carrer, Marco Cooper, Richard Čufar, Katarina Dittmar, Christoph Esper, Jan Griggs, Carol Gunnarson, Björn Günther, Björn Gutierrez, Emilia Haneca, Kristof Helama, Samuli Herzig, Franz Heussner, Karl Uwe Hofman, Jutta Janda, Pavel Kontic, Raymond Köse, Nesibe Kyncl, Tomáš Levanic, Tom Linderholm, Hans Manning, Sturt Melvin, Thomas M. Miles, Daniel Neuwirth, Burkhard Nicolussi, Kurt NOLA, PAOLA Panayotov, Momchil Popa, Ionel Rothe, Andreas Seftigen, Kristina Seim, Andrea Svarva, Helene Svoboda, Miroslav Thun, Terje Timonen, Mauri Touchan, Ramzi Trotsiuk, Volodymyr Trouet, Valerie Walder, Felix Wazny, Tomasz Wilson, Rob Zang, Christian |
author_facet |
Cook, Edward R. Seager, Richard Kushnir, Yochanan Briffa, Keith R. Büntgen, Ulf Frank, David Krusic, Paul J. Tegel, Willy van der Schrier, Gerard Andreu Hayles, Laia Baillie, Mike Baittinger, Claudia Bleicher, Niels Bonde, Niels Brown, David Carrer, Marco Cooper, Richard Čufar, Katarina Dittmar, Christoph Esper, Jan Griggs, Carol Gunnarson, Björn Günther, Björn Gutierrez, Emilia Haneca, Kristof Helama, Samuli Herzig, Franz Heussner, Karl Uwe Hofman, Jutta Janda, Pavel Kontic, Raymond Köse, Nesibe Kyncl, Tomáš Levanic, Tom Linderholm, Hans Manning, Sturt Melvin, Thomas M. Miles, Daniel Neuwirth, Burkhard Nicolussi, Kurt NOLA, PAOLA Panayotov, Momchil Popa, Ionel Rothe, Andreas Seftigen, Kristina Seim, Andrea Svarva, Helene Svoboda, Miroslav Thun, Terje Timonen, Mauri Touchan, Ramzi Trotsiuk, Volodymyr Trouet, Valerie Walder, Felix Wazny, Tomasz Wilson, Rob Zang, Christian |
author_sort |
Cook, Edward R. |
title |
Old World Megadroughts and Pluvials During the Common Era |
title_short |
Old World Megadroughts and Pluvials During the Common Era |
title_full |
Old World Megadroughts and Pluvials During the Common Era |
title_fullStr |
Old World Megadroughts and Pluvials During the Common Era |
title_full_unstemmed |
Old World Megadroughts and Pluvials During the Common Era |
title_sort |
old world megadroughts and pluvials during the common era |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11571/1155102 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500561 http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/10 |
genre |
Fennoscandia |
genre_facet |
Fennoscandia |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000216599300002 volume:1 issue:10 firstpage:1 lastpage:9 numberofpages:9 journal:SCIENCE ADVANCES http://hdl.handle.net/11571/1155102 doi:10.1126/sciadv.1500561 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-84992433804 http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/10 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500561 |
container_title |
Science Advances |
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1 |
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10 |
container_start_page |
e1500561 |
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