Embedding stock assessment within an integrated hierarchical Bayesian life cycle modelling framework : an application to Atlantic salmon in the Northeast Atlantic
International audience We developed a hierarchical Bayesian integrated life cycle model for Atlantic salmon that improves on the stock assessment approach currently used by ICES and provides some interesting insights about the population dynamics of a stock assemblage. The model is applied to the sa...
Published in: | ICES Journal of Marine Science |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-01210198 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fst240 |
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ftunivpau:oai:HAL:hal-01210198v1 2024-05-12T08:01:14+00:00 Embedding stock assessment within an integrated hierarchical Bayesian life cycle modelling framework : an application to Atlantic salmon in the Northeast Atlantic Massiot-Granier, Félix Prévost, Etienne Chaput, Gerald Potter, Ted Smith, Gordon White, Jonathan Mäntyniemi, Samu Rivot, Etienne Ecologie Comportementale et Biologie des Populations de Poissons (ECOBIOP) Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour (UPPA) Écologie et santé des écosystèmes (ESE) Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AGROCAMPUS OUEST Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Lowestoft Laboratory Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science Weymouth (CEFAS) Inchbraoch House Marine Scotland Fisheries Science Services Marine Institute Fisheries and Environmental Management Group The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007– 2013) under grant agreement No. 244706/ECOKNOWS project 2014 https://hal.science/hal-01210198 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fst240 en eng HAL CCSD Oxford University Press info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1093/icesjms/fst240 hal-01210198 https://hal.science/hal-01210198 doi:10.1093/icesjms/fst240 PRODINRA: 255260 WOS: 000343315900013 ISSN: 1054-3139 EISSN: 1095-9289 ICES Journal of Marine Science https://hal.science/hal-01210198 ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2014, 71 (7), pp.1653-1670. ⟨10.1093/icesjms/fst240⟩ http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/ atlantic salmon complex of populations stock assessment hierarchical bayesian model integrated life cycle mixed stock fishery north atlantic prefishery abundance [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2014 ftunivpau https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fst240 2024-04-18T23:57:25Z International audience We developed a hierarchical Bayesian integrated life cycle model for Atlantic salmon that improves on the stock assessment approach currently used by ICES and provides some interesting insights about the population dynamics of a stock assemblage. The model is applied to the salmon stocks in eastern Scotland. It assimilates a 40-year (1971–2010) time-series of data compiled by ICES, including the catches in the distant water fisheries at Faroes and West Greenland and estimates of returning fish abundance. Our model offers major improvements in terms of statistical methodology for A. salmon stock assessment. Uncertainty about inferences is readily quantified in the form of Bayesian posterior distributions for parameters and abundance at all life stages, and the model could be adapted to provide projections based on the uncertainty derived from the estimation phase. The approach offers flexibility to improve the ecological realism of the model. It allows the introduction of density dependence in the egg-to-smolt transition, which is not considered in the current ICES assessment method. The results show that this modifies the inferences on the temporal dynamics of the post-smolt marine survival. In particular, the overall decrease in the marine survival between 1971 and 2010 and the sharp decline around 1988–1990 are dampened when density dependence is considered. The return rates of smolts as two-sea-winter (2SW) fish has declined in a higher proportion than return rates as one-sea-winter (1SW) fish. Our results indicate that this can be explained either by an increase in the proportion maturing as 1SW fish or by an increase in the mortality rate at sea of 2SW fish, but the data used in our analyses do not allow the likelihood of these two hypotheses to be gauged Article in Journal/Newspaper Atlantic salmon Faroes Greenland North Atlantic Northeast Atlantic HAL e2s UPPA (Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour) Greenland ICES Journal of Marine Science 71 7 1653 1670 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
HAL e2s UPPA (Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivpau |
language |
English |
topic |
atlantic salmon complex of populations stock assessment hierarchical bayesian model integrated life cycle mixed stock fishery north atlantic prefishery abundance [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology |
spellingShingle |
atlantic salmon complex of populations stock assessment hierarchical bayesian model integrated life cycle mixed stock fishery north atlantic prefishery abundance [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology Massiot-Granier, Félix Prévost, Etienne Chaput, Gerald Potter, Ted Smith, Gordon White, Jonathan Mäntyniemi, Samu Rivot, Etienne Embedding stock assessment within an integrated hierarchical Bayesian life cycle modelling framework : an application to Atlantic salmon in the Northeast Atlantic |
topic_facet |
atlantic salmon complex of populations stock assessment hierarchical bayesian model integrated life cycle mixed stock fishery north atlantic prefishery abundance [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology |
description |
International audience We developed a hierarchical Bayesian integrated life cycle model for Atlantic salmon that improves on the stock assessment approach currently used by ICES and provides some interesting insights about the population dynamics of a stock assemblage. The model is applied to the salmon stocks in eastern Scotland. It assimilates a 40-year (1971–2010) time-series of data compiled by ICES, including the catches in the distant water fisheries at Faroes and West Greenland and estimates of returning fish abundance. Our model offers major improvements in terms of statistical methodology for A. salmon stock assessment. Uncertainty about inferences is readily quantified in the form of Bayesian posterior distributions for parameters and abundance at all life stages, and the model could be adapted to provide projections based on the uncertainty derived from the estimation phase. The approach offers flexibility to improve the ecological realism of the model. It allows the introduction of density dependence in the egg-to-smolt transition, which is not considered in the current ICES assessment method. The results show that this modifies the inferences on the temporal dynamics of the post-smolt marine survival. In particular, the overall decrease in the marine survival between 1971 and 2010 and the sharp decline around 1988–1990 are dampened when density dependence is considered. The return rates of smolts as two-sea-winter (2SW) fish has declined in a higher proportion than return rates as one-sea-winter (1SW) fish. Our results indicate that this can be explained either by an increase in the proportion maturing as 1SW fish or by an increase in the mortality rate at sea of 2SW fish, but the data used in our analyses do not allow the likelihood of these two hypotheses to be gauged |
author2 |
Ecologie Comportementale et Biologie des Populations de Poissons (ECOBIOP) Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour (UPPA) Écologie et santé des écosystèmes (ESE) Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AGROCAMPUS OUEST Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Lowestoft Laboratory Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science Weymouth (CEFAS) Inchbraoch House Marine Scotland Fisheries Science Services Marine Institute Fisheries and Environmental Management Group The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007– 2013) under grant agreement No. 244706/ECOKNOWS project |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Massiot-Granier, Félix Prévost, Etienne Chaput, Gerald Potter, Ted Smith, Gordon White, Jonathan Mäntyniemi, Samu Rivot, Etienne |
author_facet |
Massiot-Granier, Félix Prévost, Etienne Chaput, Gerald Potter, Ted Smith, Gordon White, Jonathan Mäntyniemi, Samu Rivot, Etienne |
author_sort |
Massiot-Granier, Félix |
title |
Embedding stock assessment within an integrated hierarchical Bayesian life cycle modelling framework : an application to Atlantic salmon in the Northeast Atlantic |
title_short |
Embedding stock assessment within an integrated hierarchical Bayesian life cycle modelling framework : an application to Atlantic salmon in the Northeast Atlantic |
title_full |
Embedding stock assessment within an integrated hierarchical Bayesian life cycle modelling framework : an application to Atlantic salmon in the Northeast Atlantic |
title_fullStr |
Embedding stock assessment within an integrated hierarchical Bayesian life cycle modelling framework : an application to Atlantic salmon in the Northeast Atlantic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Embedding stock assessment within an integrated hierarchical Bayesian life cycle modelling framework : an application to Atlantic salmon in the Northeast Atlantic |
title_sort |
embedding stock assessment within an integrated hierarchical bayesian life cycle modelling framework : an application to atlantic salmon in the northeast atlantic |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-01210198 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fst240 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Atlantic salmon Faroes Greenland North Atlantic Northeast Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Atlantic salmon Faroes Greenland North Atlantic Northeast Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 1054-3139 EISSN: 1095-9289 ICES Journal of Marine Science https://hal.science/hal-01210198 ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2014, 71 (7), pp.1653-1670. ⟨10.1093/icesjms/fst240⟩ http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1093/icesjms/fst240 hal-01210198 https://hal.science/hal-01210198 doi:10.1093/icesjms/fst240 PRODINRA: 255260 WOS: 000343315900013 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fst240 |
container_title |
ICES Journal of Marine Science |
container_volume |
71 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
1653 |
op_container_end_page |
1670 |
_version_ |
1798843355945238528 |