Current and projected patterns of warming and marine heatwaves in the Southern Indian Ocean
International audience The Southern Indian Ocean (20-120°E, 70-30°S) hosts an exceptional biodiversity that contributed to the inscription of the French and Australian natural reserves on the UNESCO World Heritage List. This region is a "hot spot" for ocean heat uptake and already experien...
Published in: | Progress in Oceanography |
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Main Authors: | , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2023
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://insu.hal.science/insu-04139547 https://insu.hal.science/insu-04139547/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-04139547/file/draft_Current_and_projected_patterns.pdf https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2023.103036 |
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ftunivparis:oai:HAL:insu-04139547v1 |
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openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Université de Paris: Portail HAL |
op_collection_id |
ftunivparis |
language |
English |
topic |
Global climate models Ocean warming Ocean extremes Southern Indian Ocean [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
spellingShingle |
Global climate models Ocean warming Ocean extremes Southern Indian Ocean [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] Azarian, Clara Bopp, Laurent Pietri, Alice Sallée, Jean-Baptiste d'Ovidio, Francesco Current and projected patterns of warming and marine heatwaves in the Southern Indian Ocean |
topic_facet |
Global climate models Ocean warming Ocean extremes Southern Indian Ocean [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
description |
International audience The Southern Indian Ocean (20-120°E, 70-30°S) hosts an exceptional biodiversity that contributed to the inscription of the French and Australian natural reserves on the UNESCO World Heritage List. This region is a "hot spot" for ocean heat uptake and already experiences intense marine heat waves (MHW), as evidenced in 2011/2012 over the Kerguelen Plateau. In the coming decades, this region is also expected to face supplemental anthropogenic warming, depending on future greenhouse gas emissions, with unknown consequences for its marine ecosystems. Here, we present a regional analysis of ocean warming and MHW based on the analyses of historical observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate projections. Consistent with observations over the last decades, we find an intensification through the 21st century of surface warming and MHW over a band located between 40°S and 55°S within the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region. CMIP6 models also project much faster climate velocities (i.e. the speed and direction at which isotherms drift in the wake of climate change) in the mesopelagic (200-1000 m) than at the surface (0-200 m). Lastly, a comparison between the two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5) analysed in this study shows much larger changes in the second half of the 21st century for the higher emission scenario. These results suggest that the subantarctic islands will probably be mostly affected by warming and MHW under both scenarios, although committing to SSP1-2.6 could substantially alleviate the pressure on ecosystems in the long term. This study also highlights the need to consider a tri-dimensional environment that may evolve at different paces when designing efficient conservation measures. |
author2 |
Processus et interactions de fine échelle océanique (PROTEO) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) Instituto del Mar del Peru (IMARPE) LEFE led by CNRS-INSU, France (projects KERTREND and KERTREND-SAT) European Project: 820989,H2020-EU.3.5.1.,COMFORT(2019) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Azarian, Clara Bopp, Laurent Pietri, Alice Sallée, Jean-Baptiste d'Ovidio, Francesco |
author_facet |
Azarian, Clara Bopp, Laurent Pietri, Alice Sallée, Jean-Baptiste d'Ovidio, Francesco |
author_sort |
Azarian, Clara |
title |
Current and projected patterns of warming and marine heatwaves in the Southern Indian Ocean |
title_short |
Current and projected patterns of warming and marine heatwaves in the Southern Indian Ocean |
title_full |
Current and projected patterns of warming and marine heatwaves in the Southern Indian Ocean |
title_fullStr |
Current and projected patterns of warming and marine heatwaves in the Southern Indian Ocean |
title_full_unstemmed |
Current and projected patterns of warming and marine heatwaves in the Southern Indian Ocean |
title_sort |
current and projected patterns of warming and marine heatwaves in the southern indian ocean |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://insu.hal.science/insu-04139547 https://insu.hal.science/insu-04139547/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-04139547/file/draft_Current_and_projected_patterns.pdf https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2023.103036 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_source |
ISSN: 0079-6611 Progress in Oceanography https://insu.hal.science/insu-04139547 Progress in Oceanography, 2023, 215, ⟨10.1016/j.pocean.2023.103036⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.pocean.2023.103036 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//820989/EU/Our common future ocean in the Earth system – quantifying coupled cycles of carbon, oxygen, and nutrients for determining and achieving safe operating spaces with respect to tipping points/COMFORT insu-04139547 https://insu.hal.science/insu-04139547 https://insu.hal.science/insu-04139547/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-04139547/file/draft_Current_and_projected_patterns.pdf BIBCODE: 2023PrOce.21503036A doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2023.103036 WOS: 001144245500001 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2023.103036 |
container_title |
Progress in Oceanography |
container_volume |
215 |
container_start_page |
103036 |
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1799485466211254272 |
spelling |
ftunivparis:oai:HAL:insu-04139547v1 2024-05-19T07:30:20+00:00 Current and projected patterns of warming and marine heatwaves in the Southern Indian Ocean Azarian, Clara Bopp, Laurent Pietri, Alice Sallée, Jean-Baptiste d'Ovidio, Francesco Processus et interactions de fine échelle océanique (PROTEO) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) Instituto del Mar del Peru (IMARPE) LEFE led by CNRS-INSU, France (projects KERTREND and KERTREND-SAT) European Project: 820989,H2020-EU.3.5.1.,COMFORT(2019) 2023-07-01 https://insu.hal.science/insu-04139547 https://insu.hal.science/insu-04139547/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-04139547/file/draft_Current_and_projected_patterns.pdf https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2023.103036 en eng HAL CCSD Elsevier info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.pocean.2023.103036 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//820989/EU/Our common future ocean in the Earth system – quantifying coupled cycles of carbon, oxygen, and nutrients for determining and achieving safe operating spaces with respect to tipping points/COMFORT insu-04139547 https://insu.hal.science/insu-04139547 https://insu.hal.science/insu-04139547/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-04139547/file/draft_Current_and_projected_patterns.pdf BIBCODE: 2023PrOce.21503036A doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2023.103036 WOS: 001144245500001 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0079-6611 Progress in Oceanography https://insu.hal.science/insu-04139547 Progress in Oceanography, 2023, 215, ⟨10.1016/j.pocean.2023.103036⟩ Global climate models Ocean warming Ocean extremes Southern Indian Ocean [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2023 ftunivparis https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2023.103036 2024-04-23T03:30:42Z International audience The Southern Indian Ocean (20-120°E, 70-30°S) hosts an exceptional biodiversity that contributed to the inscription of the French and Australian natural reserves on the UNESCO World Heritage List. This region is a "hot spot" for ocean heat uptake and already experiences intense marine heat waves (MHW), as evidenced in 2011/2012 over the Kerguelen Plateau. In the coming decades, this region is also expected to face supplemental anthropogenic warming, depending on future greenhouse gas emissions, with unknown consequences for its marine ecosystems. Here, we present a regional analysis of ocean warming and MHW based on the analyses of historical observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate projections. Consistent with observations over the last decades, we find an intensification through the 21st century of surface warming and MHW over a band located between 40°S and 55°S within the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region. CMIP6 models also project much faster climate velocities (i.e. the speed and direction at which isotherms drift in the wake of climate change) in the mesopelagic (200-1000 m) than at the surface (0-200 m). Lastly, a comparison between the two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5) analysed in this study shows much larger changes in the second half of the 21st century for the higher emission scenario. These results suggest that the subantarctic islands will probably be mostly affected by warming and MHW under both scenarios, although committing to SSP1-2.6 could substantially alleviate the pressure on ecosystems in the long term. This study also highlights the need to consider a tri-dimensional environment that may evolve at different paces when designing efficient conservation measures. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Université de Paris: Portail HAL Progress in Oceanography 215 103036 |