Using Ice Cores to Evaluate CMIP6 Aerosol Concentrations Over the Historical Era
International audience The radiative effect of anthropogenic aerosols is one of the largest uncertainties in Earth's energy budget over the industrial period. This uncertainty is in part due to sparse observations of aerosol concentrations in the pre‐satellite era. To address this lack of measu...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-04264402 https://hal.science/hal-04264402/document https://hal.science/hal-04264402/file/Moseid-2022JGR.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD036105 |
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ftunivparis:oai:HAL:hal-04264402v1 2024-04-28T08:21:33+00:00 Using Ice Cores to Evaluate CMIP6 Aerosol Concentrations Over the Historical Era Moseid, Kine Onsum Schulz, Michael Eichler, Anja Schwikowski, Margit Mcconnell, Joseph, R Olivié, Dirk Criscitiello, Alison, S Kreutz, Karl, J Legrand, Michel Norwegian Meteorological Institute Oslo (MET) Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) Desert Research Institute (DRI) University of Alberta University of Maine Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ) Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) Laboratoire Interuniversitaire des Systèmes Atmosphériques (LISA (UMR_7583)) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 (UPEC UP12)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) 2022-09-27 https://hal.science/hal-04264402 https://hal.science/hal-04264402/document https://hal.science/hal-04264402/file/Moseid-2022JGR.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD036105 en eng HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2021JD036105 hal-04264402 https://hal.science/hal-04264402 https://hal.science/hal-04264402/document https://hal.science/hal-04264402/file/Moseid-2022JGR.pdf doi:10.1029/2021JD036105 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 2169-897X EISSN: 2169-8996 Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres https://hal.science/hal-04264402 Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2022, 127 (18), pp.e2021JD036105. ⟨10.1029/2021JD036105⟩ [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2022 ftunivparis https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD036105 2024-04-09T15:09:29Z International audience The radiative effect of anthropogenic aerosols is one of the largest uncertainties in Earth's energy budget over the industrial period. This uncertainty is in part due to sparse observations of aerosol concentrations in the pre‐satellite era. To address this lack of measurements, ice cores can be used, which contain the aerosol concentration record. To date, these observations have been under‐utilized for comparison to aerosol concentrations found in state‐of‐the‐art Earth system models (ESMs). Here we compare long term trends in concentrations of sulfate and black carbon (BC) between 15 ice cores and 11 ESMs over nine regions around the world during the period 1850–2000. We find that for sulfate concentration trends model results generally agree with ice core records, whereas for BC concentration the model trends differ from the records. Absolute concentrations of both investigated species are overestimated by the models, probably in part due to representation errors. However, we assume that biases in relative trends are not altered by these errors. Ice cores in the European Alps and Greenland record a maximum BC concentration before 1950, while most ESMs used in this study agree on a post‐1950 maximum. We source this bias to an error in BC emission inventories in Europe. Emission perturbation experiments using NorESM2‐LM support the observed finding that BC concentrations in Northern Greenland ice cores are recording European emissions. Errors in BC emission inventories have implications for all future and past studies where Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 historical simulations are compared to observations relevant to aerosol forcing. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Greenland ice cores ice core Université de Paris: Portail HAL Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 127 18 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université de Paris: Portail HAL |
op_collection_id |
ftunivparis |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology Moseid, Kine Onsum Schulz, Michael Eichler, Anja Schwikowski, Margit Mcconnell, Joseph, R Olivié, Dirk Criscitiello, Alison, S Kreutz, Karl, J Legrand, Michel Using Ice Cores to Evaluate CMIP6 Aerosol Concentrations Over the Historical Era |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology |
description |
International audience The radiative effect of anthropogenic aerosols is one of the largest uncertainties in Earth's energy budget over the industrial period. This uncertainty is in part due to sparse observations of aerosol concentrations in the pre‐satellite era. To address this lack of measurements, ice cores can be used, which contain the aerosol concentration record. To date, these observations have been under‐utilized for comparison to aerosol concentrations found in state‐of‐the‐art Earth system models (ESMs). Here we compare long term trends in concentrations of sulfate and black carbon (BC) between 15 ice cores and 11 ESMs over nine regions around the world during the period 1850–2000. We find that for sulfate concentration trends model results generally agree with ice core records, whereas for BC concentration the model trends differ from the records. Absolute concentrations of both investigated species are overestimated by the models, probably in part due to representation errors. However, we assume that biases in relative trends are not altered by these errors. Ice cores in the European Alps and Greenland record a maximum BC concentration before 1950, while most ESMs used in this study agree on a post‐1950 maximum. We source this bias to an error in BC emission inventories in Europe. Emission perturbation experiments using NorESM2‐LM support the observed finding that BC concentrations in Northern Greenland ice cores are recording European emissions. Errors in BC emission inventories have implications for all future and past studies where Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 historical simulations are compared to observations relevant to aerosol forcing. |
author2 |
Norwegian Meteorological Institute Oslo (MET) Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) Desert Research Institute (DRI) University of Alberta University of Maine Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ) Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) Laboratoire Interuniversitaire des Systèmes Atmosphériques (LISA (UMR_7583)) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 (UPEC UP12)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Moseid, Kine Onsum Schulz, Michael Eichler, Anja Schwikowski, Margit Mcconnell, Joseph, R Olivié, Dirk Criscitiello, Alison, S Kreutz, Karl, J Legrand, Michel |
author_facet |
Moseid, Kine Onsum Schulz, Michael Eichler, Anja Schwikowski, Margit Mcconnell, Joseph, R Olivié, Dirk Criscitiello, Alison, S Kreutz, Karl, J Legrand, Michel |
author_sort |
Moseid, Kine Onsum |
title |
Using Ice Cores to Evaluate CMIP6 Aerosol Concentrations Over the Historical Era |
title_short |
Using Ice Cores to Evaluate CMIP6 Aerosol Concentrations Over the Historical Era |
title_full |
Using Ice Cores to Evaluate CMIP6 Aerosol Concentrations Over the Historical Era |
title_fullStr |
Using Ice Cores to Evaluate CMIP6 Aerosol Concentrations Over the Historical Era |
title_full_unstemmed |
Using Ice Cores to Evaluate CMIP6 Aerosol Concentrations Over the Historical Era |
title_sort |
using ice cores to evaluate cmip6 aerosol concentrations over the historical era |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-04264402 https://hal.science/hal-04264402/document https://hal.science/hal-04264402/file/Moseid-2022JGR.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD036105 |
genre |
Greenland Greenland ice cores ice core |
genre_facet |
Greenland Greenland ice cores ice core |
op_source |
ISSN: 2169-897X EISSN: 2169-8996 Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres https://hal.science/hal-04264402 Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2022, 127 (18), pp.e2021JD036105. ⟨10.1029/2021JD036105⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2021JD036105 hal-04264402 https://hal.science/hal-04264402 https://hal.science/hal-04264402/document https://hal.science/hal-04264402/file/Moseid-2022JGR.pdf doi:10.1029/2021JD036105 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD036105 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
container_volume |
127 |
container_issue |
18 |
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1797583829067628544 |