Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations
International audience We assess the capability of decadal prediction simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) archive to predict European summer temperature during the period 1970-2014. Using a multi-model ensemble average, we show that Southern European (SEU) summ...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2021
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Online Access: | https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03369438 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03369438/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03369438/file/Borchert_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_104017.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 |
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ftunivparis:oai:HAL:hal-03369438v1 |
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openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Université de Paris: Portail HAL |
op_collection_id |
ftunivparis |
language |
English |
topic |
climate prediction CMIP6 European summer temperature [SDE]Environmental Sciences |
spellingShingle |
climate prediction CMIP6 European summer temperature [SDE]Environmental Sciences Borchert, L, Koul, V Menary, M, Befort, D, Swingedouw, D Sgubin, G Mignot, J Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations |
topic_facet |
climate prediction CMIP6 European summer temperature [SDE]Environmental Sciences |
description |
International audience We assess the capability of decadal prediction simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) archive to predict European summer temperature during the period 1970-2014. Using a multi-model ensemble average, we show that Southern European (SEU) summer temperatures are highly predictable for up to ten years in CMIP6. Much of this predictive skill, is related to the externally forced response: historical simulations explain about 90% of observed SEU summer temperature variance. Prediction skill for the unforced signal of SEU summer temperature is low: initialized model simulations explain less than 10% of observed variance after removing the externally forced response. An observed link between unforced SEU summer temperature and preceding spring Eastern North Atlantic-Mediterranean sea surface temperature (SST) motivates the application of a dynamical-statistical model to overcome the low summer temperature skill over Europe. This dynamical-statistical model uses dynamical spring SST predictions to predict European summer temperature, and significantly increases decadal prediction skill of unforced European summer temperature variations, showing significant prediction skill for unforced Southern European summer temperature 2-9 years ahead. As a result, dynamical-statistical models can benefit the decadal prediction of variables with initially limited skill beyond the forcing, such as summer temperature over Europe. |
author2 |
Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL) Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (GKSS) Universität Hamburg (UHH) University of Oxford Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques (EPOC) Observatoire aquitain des sciences de l'univers (OASU) Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Borchert, L, Koul, V Menary, M, Befort, D, Swingedouw, D Sgubin, G Mignot, J |
author_facet |
Borchert, L, Koul, V Menary, M, Befort, D, Swingedouw, D Sgubin, G Mignot, J |
author_sort |
Borchert, L, |
title |
Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations |
title_short |
Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations |
title_full |
Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations |
title_fullStr |
Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations |
title_sort |
skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern european summer temperature variations |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03369438 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03369438/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03369438/file/Borchert_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_104017.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 1748-9326 Environmental Research Letters https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03369438 Environmental Research Letters, 2021, 16 (10), pp.104017. ⟨10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 hal-03369438 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03369438 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03369438/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03369438/file/Borchert_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_104017.pdf doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
104017 |
_version_ |
1768371019984142336 |
spelling |
ftunivparis:oai:HAL:hal-03369438v1 2023-06-11T04:14:45+02:00 Skillful decadal prediction of unforced southern European summer temperature variations Borchert, L, Koul, V Menary, M, Befort, D, Swingedouw, D Sgubin, G Mignot, J Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL) Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (GKSS) Universität Hamburg (UHH) University of Oxford Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques (EPOC) Observatoire aquitain des sciences de l'univers (OASU) Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2021-09-23 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03369438 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03369438/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03369438/file/Borchert_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_104017.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 en eng HAL CCSD IOP Publishing info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 hal-03369438 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03369438 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03369438/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03369438/file/Borchert_2021_Environ._Res._Lett._16_104017.pdf doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1748-9326 Environmental Research Letters https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03369438 Environmental Research Letters, 2021, 16 (10), pp.104017. ⟨10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5⟩ climate prediction CMIP6 European summer temperature [SDE]Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2021 ftunivparis https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5 2023-04-26T16:23:25Z International audience We assess the capability of decadal prediction simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) archive to predict European summer temperature during the period 1970-2014. Using a multi-model ensemble average, we show that Southern European (SEU) summer temperatures are highly predictable for up to ten years in CMIP6. Much of this predictive skill, is related to the externally forced response: historical simulations explain about 90% of observed SEU summer temperature variance. Prediction skill for the unforced signal of SEU summer temperature is low: initialized model simulations explain less than 10% of observed variance after removing the externally forced response. An observed link between unforced SEU summer temperature and preceding spring Eastern North Atlantic-Mediterranean sea surface temperature (SST) motivates the application of a dynamical-statistical model to overcome the low summer temperature skill over Europe. This dynamical-statistical model uses dynamical spring SST predictions to predict European summer temperature, and significantly increases decadal prediction skill of unforced European summer temperature variations, showing significant prediction skill for unforced Southern European summer temperature 2-9 years ahead. As a result, dynamical-statistical models can benefit the decadal prediction of variables with initially limited skill beyond the forcing, such as summer temperature over Europe. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Université de Paris: Portail HAL Environmental Research Letters 16 10 104017 |