An observational estimate of the direct response of the cold season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic sea ice loss
International audience The direct response of the cold season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic sea ice loss is estimated from observed sea ice concentration (SIC) and an atmospheric reanalysis, assuming that the atmospheric response to the long-term sea ice loss is the same as that to interannu...
Published in: | Journal of Climate |
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Main Authors: | , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2020
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-02505069 https://hal.science/hal-02505069/document https://hal.science/hal-02505069/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20An%20Observational%20Estimate%20of%20the%20Direct%20Response%20of%20the%20Cold-Season%20Atmospheric%20Circulation%20to%20the%20Arctic%20Sea%20Ice%20Loss.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0687.1 |
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ftunivparis:oai:HAL:hal-02505069v1 |
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openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Université de Paris: Portail HAL |
op_collection_id |
ftunivparis |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [PHYS.PHYS]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics] [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [PHYS.PHYS]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics] [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere Simon, Amélie Frankignoul, Claude Gastineau, Guillaume Kwon, Young‐Oh An observational estimate of the direct response of the cold season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic sea ice loss |
topic_facet |
[SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [PHYS.PHYS]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics] [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
description |
International audience The direct response of the cold season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic sea ice loss is estimated from observed sea ice concentration (SIC) and an atmospheric reanalysis, assuming that the atmospheric response to the long-term sea ice loss is the same as that to interannual pan-Arctic SIC fluctuations with identical spatial patterns. No large-scale relationship with previous interannual SIC fluctuations is found in October and November, but a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation follows the pan-Arctic SIC fluctuations from December to March. The signal is field significant in the stratosphere in December, and in the troposphere and tropopause thereafter. However, multiple regressions indicate that the stratospheric December signal is largely due to concomitant Siberian snow cover anomalies. On the other hand, the tropospheric January to March NAO signals can be unambiguously attributed to SIC variability, with an Iceland high approaching 45 m at 500 hPa, a 2°C surface air warming in northeastern Canada, and a modulation of blocking activity in the North Atlantic sector. In March, a 1°C northern Europe cooling is also attributed to SIC. A SIC impact on the Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasia pattern is only found in February in relation to January SIC. Extrapolating the most robust results suggests that, in the absence of other forcings, the SIC loss between 1979 and 2016 would have induced a 2 to 3°C/decade winter warming in northeastern North America and a 40 to 60 m/decade Iceland height increase, if linearity and perpetual winter conditions could be assumed. |
author2 |
Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) European Project: 727852,Blue-Action(2016) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Simon, Amélie Frankignoul, Claude Gastineau, Guillaume Kwon, Young‐Oh |
author_facet |
Simon, Amélie Frankignoul, Claude Gastineau, Guillaume Kwon, Young‐Oh |
author_sort |
Simon, Amélie |
title |
An observational estimate of the direct response of the cold season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic sea ice loss |
title_short |
An observational estimate of the direct response of the cold season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic sea ice loss |
title_full |
An observational estimate of the direct response of the cold season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic sea ice loss |
title_fullStr |
An observational estimate of the direct response of the cold season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic sea ice loss |
title_full_unstemmed |
An observational estimate of the direct response of the cold season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic sea ice loss |
title_sort |
observational estimate of the direct response of the cold season atmospheric circulation to the arctic sea ice loss |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-02505069 https://hal.science/hal-02505069/document https://hal.science/hal-02505069/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20An%20Observational%20Estimate%20of%20the%20Direct%20Response%20of%20the%20Cold-Season%20Atmospheric%20Circulation%20to%20the%20Arctic%20Sea%20Ice%20Loss.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0687.1 |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Iceland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Iceland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://hal.science/hal-02505069 Journal of Climate, 2020, 33 (9), pp.3863-3882. ⟨10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0687.1⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0687.1 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//727852/EU/Blue-Action: Arctic impact on weather and climat/Blue-Action hal-02505069 https://hal.science/hal-02505069 https://hal.science/hal-02505069/document https://hal.science/hal-02505069/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20An%20Observational%20Estimate%20of%20the%20Direct%20Response%20of%20the%20Cold-Season%20Atmospheric%20Circulation%20to%20the%20Arctic%20Sea%20Ice%20Loss.pdf doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0687.1 WOS: 000568259800024 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0687.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
33 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
3863 |
op_container_end_page |
3882 |
_version_ |
1799471552976125952 |
spelling |
ftunivparis:oai:HAL:hal-02505069v1 2024-05-19T07:33:28+00:00 An observational estimate of the direct response of the cold season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic sea ice loss Simon, Amélie Frankignoul, Claude Gastineau, Guillaume Kwon, Young‐Oh Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) European Project: 727852,Blue-Action(2016) 2020-04-06 https://hal.science/hal-02505069 https://hal.science/hal-02505069/document https://hal.science/hal-02505069/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20An%20Observational%20Estimate%20of%20the%20Direct%20Response%20of%20the%20Cold-Season%20Atmospheric%20Circulation%20to%20the%20Arctic%20Sea%20Ice%20Loss.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0687.1 en eng HAL CCSD American Meteorological Society info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0687.1 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//727852/EU/Blue-Action: Arctic impact on weather and climat/Blue-Action hal-02505069 https://hal.science/hal-02505069 https://hal.science/hal-02505069/document https://hal.science/hal-02505069/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20An%20Observational%20Estimate%20of%20the%20Direct%20Response%20of%20the%20Cold-Season%20Atmospheric%20Circulation%20to%20the%20Arctic%20Sea%20Ice%20Loss.pdf doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0687.1 WOS: 000568259800024 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://hal.science/hal-02505069 Journal of Climate, 2020, 33 (9), pp.3863-3882. ⟨10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0687.1⟩ [SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [PHYS.PHYS]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics] [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2020 ftunivparis https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0687.1 2024-04-23T03:38:45Z International audience The direct response of the cold season atmospheric circulation to the Arctic sea ice loss is estimated from observed sea ice concentration (SIC) and an atmospheric reanalysis, assuming that the atmospheric response to the long-term sea ice loss is the same as that to interannual pan-Arctic SIC fluctuations with identical spatial patterns. No large-scale relationship with previous interannual SIC fluctuations is found in October and November, but a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation follows the pan-Arctic SIC fluctuations from December to March. The signal is field significant in the stratosphere in December, and in the troposphere and tropopause thereafter. However, multiple regressions indicate that the stratospheric December signal is largely due to concomitant Siberian snow cover anomalies. On the other hand, the tropospheric January to March NAO signals can be unambiguously attributed to SIC variability, with an Iceland high approaching 45 m at 500 hPa, a 2°C surface air warming in northeastern Canada, and a modulation of blocking activity in the North Atlantic sector. In March, a 1°C northern Europe cooling is also attributed to SIC. A SIC impact on the Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasia pattern is only found in February in relation to January SIC. Extrapolating the most robust results suggests that, in the absence of other forcings, the SIC loss between 1979 and 2016 would have induced a 2 to 3°C/decade winter warming in northeastern North America and a 40 to 60 m/decade Iceland height increase, if linearity and perpetual winter conditions could be assumed. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Iceland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Université de Paris: Portail HAL Journal of Climate 33 9 3863 3882 |