Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6
Due to its wide-ranging impacts, predicting decadal variations of sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic remains a key goal of climate science. Here, we compare the representation of observed subpolar SST variations since 1960 in initialized and uninitialized historical simulat...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10447/638020 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl091307 |
id |
ftunivpalermo:oai:iris.unipa.it:10447/638020 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftunivpalermo:oai:iris.unipa.it:10447/638020 2024-06-23T07:54:54+00:00 Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6 Borchert, Leonard F. Menary, Matthew B. Swingedouw, Didier Sgubin, Giovanni Hermanson, Leon Mignot, Juliette Borchert, Leonard F. Menary, Matthew B. Swingedouw, Didier Sgubin, Giovanni Hermanson, Leon Mignot, Juliette 2021 https://hdl.handle.net/10447/638020 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl091307 eng eng AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000620058900008 volume:48 issue:3 numberofpages:10 journal:GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS https://hdl.handle.net/10447/638020 doi:10.1029/2020gl091307 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85101046835 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess climate prediction CMIP5 CMIP6 North Atlantic subpolar gyre info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2021 ftunivpalermo https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl091307 2024-06-04T14:21:12Z Due to its wide-ranging impacts, predicting decadal variations of sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic remains a key goal of climate science. Here, we compare the representation of observed subpolar SST variations since 1960 in initialized and uninitialized historical simulations from the 5th and 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5/6). Initialized decadal hindcasts from CMIP6 explain 88% of observed SST variance post-1980 in the subpolar gyre at lead years 5-7 (77% in uninitialized simulations) compared to 42% (8%) in CMIP5, indicating a more prominent role for forcing in driving observed subpolar SST changes than previously thought. Analysis of single-forcing experiments suggests much of this correlation is due to natural forcing, explaining similar to 55% of the observed variance. The amplitude of observed subpolar SST variations is underestimated in historical simulations and improved by initialization in CMIP6, indicating continued value of initialization for predicting North Atlantic SST. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic IRIS Università degli Studi di Palermo Geophysical Research Letters 48 3 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
IRIS Università degli Studi di Palermo |
op_collection_id |
ftunivpalermo |
language |
English |
topic |
climate prediction CMIP5 CMIP6 North Atlantic subpolar gyre |
spellingShingle |
climate prediction CMIP5 CMIP6 North Atlantic subpolar gyre Borchert, Leonard F. Menary, Matthew B. Swingedouw, Didier Sgubin, Giovanni Hermanson, Leon Mignot, Juliette Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6 |
topic_facet |
climate prediction CMIP5 CMIP6 North Atlantic subpolar gyre |
description |
Due to its wide-ranging impacts, predicting decadal variations of sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic remains a key goal of climate science. Here, we compare the representation of observed subpolar SST variations since 1960 in initialized and uninitialized historical simulations from the 5th and 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5/6). Initialized decadal hindcasts from CMIP6 explain 88% of observed SST variance post-1980 in the subpolar gyre at lead years 5-7 (77% in uninitialized simulations) compared to 42% (8%) in CMIP5, indicating a more prominent role for forcing in driving observed subpolar SST changes than previously thought. Analysis of single-forcing experiments suggests much of this correlation is due to natural forcing, explaining similar to 55% of the observed variance. The amplitude of observed subpolar SST variations is underestimated in historical simulations and improved by initialization in CMIP6, indicating continued value of initialization for predicting North Atlantic SST. |
author2 |
Borchert, Leonard F. Menary, Matthew B. Swingedouw, Didier Sgubin, Giovanni Hermanson, Leon Mignot, Juliette |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Borchert, Leonard F. Menary, Matthew B. Swingedouw, Didier Sgubin, Giovanni Hermanson, Leon Mignot, Juliette |
author_facet |
Borchert, Leonard F. Menary, Matthew B. Swingedouw, Didier Sgubin, Giovanni Hermanson, Leon Mignot, Juliette |
author_sort |
Borchert, Leonard F. |
title |
Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6 |
title_short |
Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6 |
title_full |
Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6 |
title_fullStr |
Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Improved Decadal Predictions of North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre SST in CMIP6 |
title_sort |
improved decadal predictions of north atlantic subpolar gyre sst in cmip6 |
publisher |
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10447/638020 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl091307 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000620058900008 volume:48 issue:3 numberofpages:10 journal:GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS https://hdl.handle.net/10447/638020 doi:10.1029/2020gl091307 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85101046835 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl091307 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
48 |
container_issue |
3 |
_version_ |
1802647226122502144 |