An SEIR Model with Time-Varying Coefficients for Analyzing the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic
In this study, we propose a time-dependent susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model for the analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic outbreak in three different countries, the United States, Italy, and Iceland using public data inherent the numbers of the epidemic wave. Since several types and...
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2021
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/11577/3412759 https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13858 |
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ftunivpadovairis:oai:www.research.unipd.it:11577/3412759 2024-02-27T08:41:58+00:00 An SEIR Model with Time-Varying Coefficients for Analyzing the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic Girardi P. Gaetan C. Girardi, P. Gaetan, C. 2021 http://hdl.handle.net/11577/3412759 https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13858 eng eng John Wiley and Sons Inc info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/34799850 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000720564300001 journal:RISK ANALYSIS http://hdl.handle.net/11577/3412759 doi:10.1111/risa.13858 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85119409207 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Contagion dynamic epidemic outbreak SARS-CoV-2 SEIR modeling statistical methods info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2021 ftunivpadovairis https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13858 2024-01-31T18:03:55Z In this study, we propose a time-dependent susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model for the analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic outbreak in three different countries, the United States, Italy, and Iceland using public data inherent the numbers of the epidemic wave. Since several types and grades of actions were adopted by the governments, including travel restrictions, social distancing, or limitation of movement, we want to investigate how these measures can affect the epidemic curve of the infectious population. The parameters of interest for the SEIR model were estimated employing a composite likelihood approach. Moreover, standard errors have been corrected for temporal dependence. The adoption of restrictive measures results in flatten epidemic curves, and the future evolution indicated a decrease in the number of cases. Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland Padua Research Archive (IRIS - Università degli Studi di Padova) Risk Analysis |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Padua Research Archive (IRIS - Università degli Studi di Padova) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivpadovairis |
language |
English |
topic |
Contagion dynamic epidemic outbreak SARS-CoV-2 SEIR modeling statistical methods |
spellingShingle |
Contagion dynamic epidemic outbreak SARS-CoV-2 SEIR modeling statistical methods Girardi P. Gaetan C. An SEIR Model with Time-Varying Coefficients for Analyzing the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic |
topic_facet |
Contagion dynamic epidemic outbreak SARS-CoV-2 SEIR modeling statistical methods |
description |
In this study, we propose a time-dependent susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model for the analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic outbreak in three different countries, the United States, Italy, and Iceland using public data inherent the numbers of the epidemic wave. Since several types and grades of actions were adopted by the governments, including travel restrictions, social distancing, or limitation of movement, we want to investigate how these measures can affect the epidemic curve of the infectious population. The parameters of interest for the SEIR model were estimated employing a composite likelihood approach. Moreover, standard errors have been corrected for temporal dependence. The adoption of restrictive measures results in flatten epidemic curves, and the future evolution indicated a decrease in the number of cases. |
author2 |
Girardi, P. Gaetan, C. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Girardi P. Gaetan C. |
author_facet |
Girardi P. Gaetan C. |
author_sort |
Girardi P. |
title |
An SEIR Model with Time-Varying Coefficients for Analyzing the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic |
title_short |
An SEIR Model with Time-Varying Coefficients for Analyzing the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic |
title_full |
An SEIR Model with Time-Varying Coefficients for Analyzing the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic |
title_fullStr |
An SEIR Model with Time-Varying Coefficients for Analyzing the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic |
title_full_unstemmed |
An SEIR Model with Time-Varying Coefficients for Analyzing the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic |
title_sort |
seir model with time-varying coefficients for analyzing the sars-cov-2 epidemic |
publisher |
John Wiley and Sons Inc |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11577/3412759 https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13858 |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/34799850 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000720564300001 journal:RISK ANALYSIS http://hdl.handle.net/11577/3412759 doi:10.1111/risa.13858 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85119409207 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13858 |
container_title |
Risk Analysis |
_version_ |
1792049351401406464 |