Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise
Abstract Ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest sources of contemporary sea-level rise (SLR). While process-based models place timescales on Greenland’s deglaciation, their confidence is obscured by model shortcomings including imprecise atmospheric and oceanic couplings. Here,...
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ftunivoulu:oai:oulu.fi:nbnfi-fe2023062760510 2023-07-30T04:03:46+02:00 Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise Box, J. E. (Jason E.) Hubbard, A. (Alun) Bahr, D. B. (David B.) Colgan, W. T. (William T.) Fettweis, X. (Xavier) Mankoff, K. D. (Kenneth D.) Wehrlé, A. (Adrien) Noël, B. (Brice) van den Broeke, M. R. (Michiel R.) Wouters, B. (Bert) Bjørk, A. A. (Anders A.) Fausto, R. S. (Robert S.) 2022 application/pdf http://urn.fi/urn:nbn:fi-fe2023062760510 eng eng Springer Nature info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess © The Author(s) 2022. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Climate-change impacts Cryospheric science info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2022 ftunivoulu 2023-07-08T20:02:05Z Abstract Ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest sources of contemporary sea-level rise (SLR). While process-based models place timescales on Greenland’s deglaciation, their confidence is obscured by model shortcomings including imprecise atmospheric and oceanic couplings. Here, we present a complementary approach resolving ice sheet disequilibrium with climate constrained by satellite-derived bare-ice extent, tidewater sector ice flow discharge and surface mass balance data. We find that Greenland ice imbalance with the recent (2000–2019) climate commits at least 274 ± 68 mm SLR from 59 ± 15 × 10³ km² ice retreat, equivalent to 3.3 ± 0.9% volume loss, regardless of twenty-first-century climate pathways. This is a result of increasing mass turnover from precipitation, ice flow discharge and meltwater run-off. The high-melt year of 2012 applied in perpetuity yields an ice loss commitment of 782 ± 135 mm SLR, serving as an ominous prognosis for Greenland’s trajectory through a twenty-first century of warming. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet Jultika - University of Oulu repository Greenland |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Jultika - University of Oulu repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivoulu |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate-change impacts Cryospheric science |
spellingShingle |
Climate-change impacts Cryospheric science Box, J. E. (Jason E.) Hubbard, A. (Alun) Bahr, D. B. (David B.) Colgan, W. T. (William T.) Fettweis, X. (Xavier) Mankoff, K. D. (Kenneth D.) Wehrlé, A. (Adrien) Noël, B. (Brice) van den Broeke, M. R. (Michiel R.) Wouters, B. (Bert) Bjørk, A. A. (Anders A.) Fausto, R. S. (Robert S.) Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise |
topic_facet |
Climate-change impacts Cryospheric science |
description |
Abstract Ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest sources of contemporary sea-level rise (SLR). While process-based models place timescales on Greenland’s deglaciation, their confidence is obscured by model shortcomings including imprecise atmospheric and oceanic couplings. Here, we present a complementary approach resolving ice sheet disequilibrium with climate constrained by satellite-derived bare-ice extent, tidewater sector ice flow discharge and surface mass balance data. We find that Greenland ice imbalance with the recent (2000–2019) climate commits at least 274 ± 68 mm SLR from 59 ± 15 × 10³ km² ice retreat, equivalent to 3.3 ± 0.9% volume loss, regardless of twenty-first-century climate pathways. This is a result of increasing mass turnover from precipitation, ice flow discharge and meltwater run-off. The high-melt year of 2012 applied in perpetuity yields an ice loss commitment of 782 ± 135 mm SLR, serving as an ominous prognosis for Greenland’s trajectory through a twenty-first century of warming. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Box, J. E. (Jason E.) Hubbard, A. (Alun) Bahr, D. B. (David B.) Colgan, W. T. (William T.) Fettweis, X. (Xavier) Mankoff, K. D. (Kenneth D.) Wehrlé, A. (Adrien) Noël, B. (Brice) van den Broeke, M. R. (Michiel R.) Wouters, B. (Bert) Bjørk, A. A. (Anders A.) Fausto, R. S. (Robert S.) |
author_facet |
Box, J. E. (Jason E.) Hubbard, A. (Alun) Bahr, D. B. (David B.) Colgan, W. T. (William T.) Fettweis, X. (Xavier) Mankoff, K. D. (Kenneth D.) Wehrlé, A. (Adrien) Noël, B. (Brice) van den Broeke, M. R. (Michiel R.) Wouters, B. (Bert) Bjørk, A. A. (Anders A.) Fausto, R. S. (Robert S.) |
author_sort |
Box, J. E. (Jason E.) |
title |
Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise |
title_short |
Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise |
title_full |
Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise |
title_fullStr |
Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise |
title_full_unstemmed |
Greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise |
title_sort |
greenland ice sheet climate disequilibrium and committed sea-level rise |
publisher |
Springer Nature |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://urn.fi/urn:nbn:fi-fe2023062760510 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess © The Author(s) 2022. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
_version_ |
1772814856832942080 |