Circumpolar permafrost maps and geohazard indices for near-future infrastructure risk assessments
Abstract Ongoing climate change is causing fundamental changes in the Arctic, some of which can be hazardous to nature and human activity. In the context of Earth surface systems, warming climate may lead to rising ground temperatures and thaw of permafrost. This Data Descriptor presents circumpolar...
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ftunivoulu:oai:oulu.fi:nbnfi-fe2019041011731 2023-07-30T04:01:48+02:00 Circumpolar permafrost maps and geohazard indices for near-future infrastructure risk assessments Karjalainen, O. (Olli) Aalto, J. (Juha) Luoto, M. (Miska) Westermann, S. (Sebastian) Romanovsky, V. E. (Vladimir E.) Nelson, F. E. (Frederick E.) Etzelmüller, B. (Bernd) Hjort, J. (Jan) 2019 application/pdf http://urn.fi/urn:nbn:fi-fe2019041011731 eng eng Springer Nature info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess © The Author(s) 2019. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2019 ftunivoulu 2023-07-08T19:55:33Z Abstract Ongoing climate change is causing fundamental changes in the Arctic, some of which can be hazardous to nature and human activity. In the context of Earth surface systems, warming climate may lead to rising ground temperatures and thaw of permafrost. This Data Descriptor presents circumpolar permafrost maps and geohazard indices depicting zones of varying potential for development of hazards related to near-surface permafrost degradation, such as ground subsidence. Statistical models were used to predict ground temperature and the thickness of the seasonally thawed (active) layer using geospatial data on environmental conditions at 30 arc-second resolution. These predictions, together with data on factors (ground ice content, soil grain size and slope gradient) affecting permafrost stability, were used to formulate geohazard indices. Using climate-forcing scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5), permafrost extent and hazard potential were projected for the 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 time periods. The resulting data (seven permafrost and 24 geohazard maps) are relevant to near-future infrastructure risk assessments and for targeting localized geohazard analyses. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Ice permafrost Jultika - University of Oulu repository Arctic |
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Open Polar |
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Jultika - University of Oulu repository |
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ftunivoulu |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract Ongoing climate change is causing fundamental changes in the Arctic, some of which can be hazardous to nature and human activity. In the context of Earth surface systems, warming climate may lead to rising ground temperatures and thaw of permafrost. This Data Descriptor presents circumpolar permafrost maps and geohazard indices depicting zones of varying potential for development of hazards related to near-surface permafrost degradation, such as ground subsidence. Statistical models were used to predict ground temperature and the thickness of the seasonally thawed (active) layer using geospatial data on environmental conditions at 30 arc-second resolution. These predictions, together with data on factors (ground ice content, soil grain size and slope gradient) affecting permafrost stability, were used to formulate geohazard indices. Using climate-forcing scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5), permafrost extent and hazard potential were projected for the 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 time periods. The resulting data (seven permafrost and 24 geohazard maps) are relevant to near-future infrastructure risk assessments and for targeting localized geohazard analyses. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Karjalainen, O. (Olli) Aalto, J. (Juha) Luoto, M. (Miska) Westermann, S. (Sebastian) Romanovsky, V. E. (Vladimir E.) Nelson, F. E. (Frederick E.) Etzelmüller, B. (Bernd) Hjort, J. (Jan) |
spellingShingle |
Karjalainen, O. (Olli) Aalto, J. (Juha) Luoto, M. (Miska) Westermann, S. (Sebastian) Romanovsky, V. E. (Vladimir E.) Nelson, F. E. (Frederick E.) Etzelmüller, B. (Bernd) Hjort, J. (Jan) Circumpolar permafrost maps and geohazard indices for near-future infrastructure risk assessments |
author_facet |
Karjalainen, O. (Olli) Aalto, J. (Juha) Luoto, M. (Miska) Westermann, S. (Sebastian) Romanovsky, V. E. (Vladimir E.) Nelson, F. E. (Frederick E.) Etzelmüller, B. (Bernd) Hjort, J. (Jan) |
author_sort |
Karjalainen, O. (Olli) |
title |
Circumpolar permafrost maps and geohazard indices for near-future infrastructure risk assessments |
title_short |
Circumpolar permafrost maps and geohazard indices for near-future infrastructure risk assessments |
title_full |
Circumpolar permafrost maps and geohazard indices for near-future infrastructure risk assessments |
title_fullStr |
Circumpolar permafrost maps and geohazard indices for near-future infrastructure risk assessments |
title_full_unstemmed |
Circumpolar permafrost maps and geohazard indices for near-future infrastructure risk assessments |
title_sort |
circumpolar permafrost maps and geohazard indices for near-future infrastructure risk assessments |
publisher |
Springer Nature |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://urn.fi/urn:nbn:fi-fe2019041011731 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Ice permafrost |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Ice permafrost |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess © The Author(s) 2019. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
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1772812547543531520 |