Statistical forecasting of current and future circum‐Arctic ground temperatures and active layer thickness
Abstract Mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and active layer thickness (ALT) are key to understanding the evolution of the ground thermal state across the Arctic under climate change. Here a statistical modeling approach is presented to forecast current and future circum‐Arctic MAGT and ALT in re...
Main Authors: | , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
American Geophysical Union
2018
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://urn.fi/urn:nbn:fi-fe201903209456 |
id |
ftunivoulu:oai:oulu.fi:nbnfi-fe201903209456 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftunivoulu:oai:oulu.fi:nbnfi-fe201903209456 2023-07-30T03:55:25+02:00 Statistical forecasting of current and future circum‐Arctic ground temperatures and active layer thickness Aalto, J. (J.) Karjalainen , O. (O.) Hjort, J. (J.) Luoto, M. (M.) 2018 application/pdf http://urn.fi/urn:nbn:fi-fe201903209456 eng eng American Geophysical Union info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess © 2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Arctic climate change ensemble modeling ground thermal regime permafrost uncertainty info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2018 ftunivoulu 2023-07-08T19:55:32Z Abstract Mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and active layer thickness (ALT) are key to understanding the evolution of the ground thermal state across the Arctic under climate change. Here a statistical modeling approach is presented to forecast current and future circum‐Arctic MAGT and ALT in relation to climatic and local environmental factors, at spatial scales unreachable with contemporary transient modeling. After deploying an ensemble of multiple statistical techniques, distance‐blocked cross validation between observations and predictions suggested excellent and reasonable transferability of the MAGT and ALT models, respectively. The MAGT forecasts indicated currently suitable conditions for permafrost to prevail over an area of 15.1 ± 2.8 × 106km2. This extent is likely to dramatically contract in the future, as the results showed consistent, but region‐specific, changes in ground thermal regime due to climate change. The forecasts provide new opportunities to assess future Arctic changes in ground thermal state and biogeochemical feedback. Article in Journal/Newspaper Active layer thickness Arctic Climate change permafrost Jultika - University of Oulu repository Arctic |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Jultika - University of Oulu repository |
op_collection_id |
ftunivoulu |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic climate change ensemble modeling ground thermal regime permafrost uncertainty |
spellingShingle |
Arctic climate change ensemble modeling ground thermal regime permafrost uncertainty Aalto, J. (J.) Karjalainen , O. (O.) Hjort, J. (J.) Luoto, M. (M.) Statistical forecasting of current and future circum‐Arctic ground temperatures and active layer thickness |
topic_facet |
Arctic climate change ensemble modeling ground thermal regime permafrost uncertainty |
description |
Abstract Mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and active layer thickness (ALT) are key to understanding the evolution of the ground thermal state across the Arctic under climate change. Here a statistical modeling approach is presented to forecast current and future circum‐Arctic MAGT and ALT in relation to climatic and local environmental factors, at spatial scales unreachable with contemporary transient modeling. After deploying an ensemble of multiple statistical techniques, distance‐blocked cross validation between observations and predictions suggested excellent and reasonable transferability of the MAGT and ALT models, respectively. The MAGT forecasts indicated currently suitable conditions for permafrost to prevail over an area of 15.1 ± 2.8 × 106km2. This extent is likely to dramatically contract in the future, as the results showed consistent, but region‐specific, changes in ground thermal regime due to climate change. The forecasts provide new opportunities to assess future Arctic changes in ground thermal state and biogeochemical feedback. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Aalto, J. (J.) Karjalainen , O. (O.) Hjort, J. (J.) Luoto, M. (M.) |
author_facet |
Aalto, J. (J.) Karjalainen , O. (O.) Hjort, J. (J.) Luoto, M. (M.) |
author_sort |
Aalto, J. (J.) |
title |
Statistical forecasting of current and future circum‐Arctic ground temperatures and active layer thickness |
title_short |
Statistical forecasting of current and future circum‐Arctic ground temperatures and active layer thickness |
title_full |
Statistical forecasting of current and future circum‐Arctic ground temperatures and active layer thickness |
title_fullStr |
Statistical forecasting of current and future circum‐Arctic ground temperatures and active layer thickness |
title_full_unstemmed |
Statistical forecasting of current and future circum‐Arctic ground temperatures and active layer thickness |
title_sort |
statistical forecasting of current and future circum‐arctic ground temperatures and active layer thickness |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://urn.fi/urn:nbn:fi-fe201903209456 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Active layer thickness Arctic Climate change permafrost |
genre_facet |
Active layer thickness Arctic Climate change permafrost |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess © 2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
_version_ |
1772811728486137856 |