Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century
Abstract Degradation of near-surface permafrost can pose a serious threat to the utilization of natural resources, and to the sustainable development of Arctic communities. Here we identify at unprecedentedly high spatial resolution infrastructure hazard areas in the Northern Hemisphere’s permafrost...
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ftunivoulu:oai:oulu.fi:nbnfi-fe201901071474 2023-07-30T04:00:33+02:00 Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century Hjort, J. (Jan) Karjalainen, O. (Olli) Aalto, J. (Juha) Westermann, S. (Sebastian) Romanovsky, V. E. (Vladimir E.) Nelson, F. E. (Frederick E.) Etzelmüller, B. (Bernd) Luoto, M. (Miska) 2018 application/pdf http://urn.fi/urn:nbn:fi-fe201901071474 eng eng Springer Nature info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess © The Author(s) 2018. Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion 2018 ftunivoulu 2023-07-08T19:56:06Z Abstract Degradation of near-surface permafrost can pose a serious threat to the utilization of natural resources, and to the sustainable development of Arctic communities. Here we identify at unprecedentedly high spatial resolution infrastructure hazard areas in the Northern Hemisphere’s permafrost regions under projected climatic changes and quantify fundamental engineering structures at risk by 2050. We show that nearly four million people and 70% of current infrastructure in the permafrost domain are in areas with high potential for thaw of near-surface permafrost. Our results demonstrate that one-third of pan-Arctic infrastructure and 45% of the hydrocarbon extraction fields in the Russian Arctic are in regions where thaw-related ground instability can cause severe damage to the built environment. Alarmingly, these figures are not reduced substantially even if the climate change targets of the Paris Agreement are reached. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change permafrost Jultika - University of Oulu repository Arctic |
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Jultika - University of Oulu repository |
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ftunivoulu |
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English |
description |
Abstract Degradation of near-surface permafrost can pose a serious threat to the utilization of natural resources, and to the sustainable development of Arctic communities. Here we identify at unprecedentedly high spatial resolution infrastructure hazard areas in the Northern Hemisphere’s permafrost regions under projected climatic changes and quantify fundamental engineering structures at risk by 2050. We show that nearly four million people and 70% of current infrastructure in the permafrost domain are in areas with high potential for thaw of near-surface permafrost. Our results demonstrate that one-third of pan-Arctic infrastructure and 45% of the hydrocarbon extraction fields in the Russian Arctic are in regions where thaw-related ground instability can cause severe damage to the built environment. Alarmingly, these figures are not reduced substantially even if the climate change targets of the Paris Agreement are reached. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hjort, J. (Jan) Karjalainen, O. (Olli) Aalto, J. (Juha) Westermann, S. (Sebastian) Romanovsky, V. E. (Vladimir E.) Nelson, F. E. (Frederick E.) Etzelmüller, B. (Bernd) Luoto, M. (Miska) |
spellingShingle |
Hjort, J. (Jan) Karjalainen, O. (Olli) Aalto, J. (Juha) Westermann, S. (Sebastian) Romanovsky, V. E. (Vladimir E.) Nelson, F. E. (Frederick E.) Etzelmüller, B. (Bernd) Luoto, M. (Miska) Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century |
author_facet |
Hjort, J. (Jan) Karjalainen, O. (Olli) Aalto, J. (Juha) Westermann, S. (Sebastian) Romanovsky, V. E. (Vladimir E.) Nelson, F. E. (Frederick E.) Etzelmüller, B. (Bernd) Luoto, M. (Miska) |
author_sort |
Hjort, J. (Jan) |
title |
Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century |
title_short |
Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century |
title_full |
Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century |
title_fullStr |
Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century |
title_sort |
degrading permafrost puts arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century |
publisher |
Springer Nature |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://urn.fi/urn:nbn:fi-fe201901071474 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change permafrost |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change permafrost |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess © The Author(s) 2018. Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
_version_ |
1772811057073487872 |