A Comprehensive Content and Risk Analysis of Maritime Shipping Operations in Arctic Canada

• Main Author: Rettinger, Connor
• Other Authors: Dawson, Jackie
• Format: Thesis
• Language: English
• Published: Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa 2024
• Subjects: Arctic shipping; content analysis; natural language processing; Northwest Passage; risk analysis; risk identification; word frequency; word association; consequence/probability matrix; FMECA analysis; risk rating; Arctic; Canada; Northwest passage; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10393/45865; https://doi.org/10.20381/ruor-30069

Arctic Canada has seen significant ecological changes since the 1990s, leading to sea ice melt, increased temperatures, and increased accessibility to the Northwest Passage. The increased accessibility to the Northwest Passage has allowed for vessels to easily access maritime routes that were not previously accessible. Changes to the Arctic landscape has led to the beginning of open water shipping seasons in Arctic waters, attracting international audiences for trade, tourism, fisheries, and other economic activity. This new passageway increases options for companies to reduce costs in shipping, while also facilitating new and emerging hazards and risks for operational vessels. Comprehensive risk analysis and full assessments need to be completed to aid policy- and decision-makers to support and manage the increasing maritime traffic in Canadian Arctic waters. To fill this knowledge gap, the overarching aim of this master’s level research was to identify and preliminarily evaluate a comprehensive list of hazards (impact drivers) and risks (future impacts) for Maritime ship operations within Arctic Canada and to complete a preliminary assessment of identified maritime shipping hazards and risks throughout Arctic Canada. Hazards and risks were identified using several text-based sources, including social media, grey literature, and peer reviewed journal articles, in order to conduct a comprehensive content analysis to identify the perspectives and trends emerging among the online community. Natural language processing methods were then used, such as word frequencies, word correlation, and topic modelling to identify key phrases, terminology, and thematic groups. This allowed for the creation of an inventory of relevant hazard and risk themes and categories that could be used as a strong basis for informing a risk analysis. Emerging themes included: sea ice, navigability issues, geopolitical concerns, and operational challenges, among others. Following the identification of hazard and risk factors, a ‘failure ...