Using Traditional Inuit Knowledge and Scientific Methods to Characterize Historical Climate Change Impacts to Sea Ice in Resolute Bay, Nunavut

• Main Author: Forsythe, Alexandra
• Other Authors: Nistor, Ioan
• Format: Thesis
• Language: English
• Published: Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa 2023
• Subjects: Traditional Inuit Knowledge; Sea Ice; Climate Impacts; Socio-economic Impacts; Arctic; Historical trends; Climate change; inuit; Nunavut; Resolute Bay; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10393/45665; https://doi.org/10.20381/ruor-29869

One of the most visible impacts of climate change in Arctic environments is declining sea ice. Due to an absence of spatially coarse quantitative data, there is a lack of understanding on declining sea ice on a community scale. This study seeks to document historical trends in air temperature, sea ice thickness (SIT), break-up dates (BUDs) and freeze-up dates (FUDs), correlate sea ice behaviour to air temperatures, and document the socio-economic impacts of sea ice change in Resolute Bay Nunavut, using traditional Inuit knowledge (TIK) and scientific methods. During the scientific portion of this study linear regression, statistical significance, anomaly analysis, and change point detection were used on time series of sea ice concentration (SIC), SIT, and air temperature. Two SIC datasets were accessed to characterize BUDs and FUDs, Canadian Ice Services archived sea ice charts from 1982-2022 and Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S) gridded satellite derived SIC from 1979-2015. The BUD was defined when SIC fell and stayed below 20%, and the FUD was when SIC returned and stayed above 50%. By applying a statistically significant linear regression to both datasets, the BUD was shown to occur 37.5 days earlier and the FUD occurred 23.4 days later in 2022 than in 1979. This study accessed two SIT datasets, Environment and Climate Change Canada fast ice measurements from 1947-2022 and C3S satellite derived sea ice freeboard measurements from 2002-2020 at four locations in the Barrow Strait. After applying change point detection algorithms, this study found annual maximum fast ice thicknesses increased 32.5 cm from 1948-1981 and decreased 33.2 cm from 1981-2021. Fast ice decreased most substantially in the months of April and May. Sea ice freeboard decreased by 260.8 cm on average from 2002-2020 in the Barrow Strait. Freezing degree days (FDDs) were used to correlate sea ice behaviour to air temperature. As FDDs decrease, sea ice freeboard was the most rapidly changing sea ice parameter and fast ice thickness was ...