Validation of the North American Ice Service Iceberg Drift Model
Icebergs calved from high-latitude glaciers and ice shelves pose a threat to vessels and offshore infrastructure at a time when Arctic shipping and resource exploration are increasing. Knowledge of the location of potential ice hazards is therefore critical to ensure safe and efficient operations in...
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Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa
2022
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ftunivottawa:oai:ruor.uottawa.ca:10393/43467 2023-05-15T14:59:06+02:00 Validation of the North American Ice Service Iceberg Drift Model Garbo, Adam Copland, Luke Mueller, Derek 2022-04-13 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/10393/43467 https://doi.org/10.20381/ruor-27682 en eng Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa http://hdl.handle.net/10393/43467 http://dx.doi.org/10.20381/ruor-27682 Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ CC-BY-NC-ND iceberg drift modelling tracking beacon Thesis 2022 ftunivottawa https://doi.org/10.20381/ruor-27682 2022-04-16T22:59:07Z Icebergs calved from high-latitude glaciers and ice shelves pose a threat to vessels and offshore infrastructure at a time when Arctic shipping and resource exploration are increasing. Knowledge of the location of potential ice hazards is therefore critical to ensure safe and efficient operations in this remote region. The Canadian Ice Service (CIS; Environment and Climate Change Canada) provides information to stakeholders on the observed and predicted distribution of icebergs in Canadian waters by combining iceberg observations with forecasts from the North American Ice Service (NAIS) iceberg drift model. The NAIS model estimates the forces acting on an iceberg to predict its future position and velocity. It is widely used for the east coast of Canada but largely unproven in the Arctic and suffers from insufficient validation due to a paucity of reliable in-situ observations of iceberg drift. This study represents the first comprehensive validation of the NAIS iceberg drift model for the Canadian Arctic. A total of 133 hindcast simulations for the period 2009-2019 were performed against in-situ drift observations of 44 icebergs. These data, collated in an iceberg beacon database (compiled by Carleton University and CIS), includes observations collected by Cryologgers; novel iceberg tracking beacons designed as part of this study. Quantified comparisons of the distance error between observed and modelled drift tracks indicate that the NAIS model produces realistic simulations of iceberg drift in Baffin Bay. Root mean square error after 24-hours of simulated drift ranged from 18-22 km and increased at a daily rate of 11-13 km, which is typical of previous model verification and validation studies. Improved model performance was observed for longer (>250 m) and deeper-keeled (>100 m) icebergs, which appears to counteract the model’s tendency to overestimate drift by reducing the influence of stronger surface ocean currents acting on the iceberg. Ocean current direction, wind direction, and iceberg keel geometry were identified by a sensitivity analysis as the model parameters and environmental driving forces that have the greatest influence on modelled iceberg drift. These results emphasize the need for accurate environmental information and underscore the importance of properly representing the physical characteristics of icebergs in drift models. Thesis Arctic Baffin Bay Baffin Bay Baffin Climate change glacier* Ice Shelves Iceberg* uO Research (University of Ottawa - uOttawa) Arctic Baffin Bay Canada |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
uO Research (University of Ottawa - uOttawa) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivottawa |
language |
English |
topic |
iceberg drift modelling tracking beacon |
spellingShingle |
iceberg drift modelling tracking beacon Garbo, Adam Validation of the North American Ice Service Iceberg Drift Model |
topic_facet |
iceberg drift modelling tracking beacon |
description |
Icebergs calved from high-latitude glaciers and ice shelves pose a threat to vessels and offshore infrastructure at a time when Arctic shipping and resource exploration are increasing. Knowledge of the location of potential ice hazards is therefore critical to ensure safe and efficient operations in this remote region. The Canadian Ice Service (CIS; Environment and Climate Change Canada) provides information to stakeholders on the observed and predicted distribution of icebergs in Canadian waters by combining iceberg observations with forecasts from the North American Ice Service (NAIS) iceberg drift model. The NAIS model estimates the forces acting on an iceberg to predict its future position and velocity. It is widely used for the east coast of Canada but largely unproven in the Arctic and suffers from insufficient validation due to a paucity of reliable in-situ observations of iceberg drift. This study represents the first comprehensive validation of the NAIS iceberg drift model for the Canadian Arctic. A total of 133 hindcast simulations for the period 2009-2019 were performed against in-situ drift observations of 44 icebergs. These data, collated in an iceberg beacon database (compiled by Carleton University and CIS), includes observations collected by Cryologgers; novel iceberg tracking beacons designed as part of this study. Quantified comparisons of the distance error between observed and modelled drift tracks indicate that the NAIS model produces realistic simulations of iceberg drift in Baffin Bay. Root mean square error after 24-hours of simulated drift ranged from 18-22 km and increased at a daily rate of 11-13 km, which is typical of previous model verification and validation studies. Improved model performance was observed for longer (>250 m) and deeper-keeled (>100 m) icebergs, which appears to counteract the model’s tendency to overestimate drift by reducing the influence of stronger surface ocean currents acting on the iceberg. Ocean current direction, wind direction, and iceberg keel geometry were identified by a sensitivity analysis as the model parameters and environmental driving forces that have the greatest influence on modelled iceberg drift. These results emphasize the need for accurate environmental information and underscore the importance of properly representing the physical characteristics of icebergs in drift models. |
author2 |
Copland, Luke Mueller, Derek |
format |
Thesis |
author |
Garbo, Adam |
author_facet |
Garbo, Adam |
author_sort |
Garbo, Adam |
title |
Validation of the North American Ice Service Iceberg Drift Model |
title_short |
Validation of the North American Ice Service Iceberg Drift Model |
title_full |
Validation of the North American Ice Service Iceberg Drift Model |
title_fullStr |
Validation of the North American Ice Service Iceberg Drift Model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Validation of the North American Ice Service Iceberg Drift Model |
title_sort |
validation of the north american ice service iceberg drift model |
publisher |
Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10393/43467 https://doi.org/10.20381/ruor-27682 |
geographic |
Arctic Baffin Bay Canada |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Baffin Bay Canada |
genre |
Arctic Baffin Bay Baffin Bay Baffin Climate change glacier* Ice Shelves Iceberg* |
genre_facet |
Arctic Baffin Bay Baffin Bay Baffin Climate change glacier* Ice Shelves Iceberg* |
op_relation |
http://hdl.handle.net/10393/43467 http://dx.doi.org/10.20381/ruor-27682 |
op_rights |
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY-NC-ND |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.20381/ruor-27682 |
_version_ |
1766331242403332096 |