Long-Term Predictions of Global Climate Using the Ocean Conveyor

• Main Authors: Ray, P., Wilson, J. R.
• Other Authors: United States. Department of Energy. Office of Science.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: United States. Department of Energy. Office of Science. 2003
• Subjects: Forecasting; Ambient Temperature; Climatic Change; Conveyors; 54 Environmental Sciences; Seasons; Hurricanes; Oscillations; Precipitation; Red Sea; climates; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc841200/

Many have attributed the Great Ocean Conveyor as a major driver of global climate change over millennia as well as a possible explanation for shorter (multidecadal) oscillations. The conveyor is thought to have a cycle time on the order of 1000 years, however recent research has suggested that it is much faster than previously believed (about 100 years). A faster conveyor leads to the possibility of the conveyor's role in even shorter oscillations such as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The conveyor is primarily density driven. In this study the salty outflow of the Red Sea is used to predict its behavior ten years into the future. A successful model could lead to a long-term prediction (ten years) of El Ninos, Atlantic hurricane season intensity, as well as global temperature and precipitation patterns.