Drivers of change of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, between 1995 and 2015

• Published in: Geophysical Research Letters
• Main Authors: Santos, Thiago Dias Dos, Barnes, Jowan M., Goldberg, Daniel N., Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar, Morlighem, Mathieu
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: American Geophysical Union 2021
• Subjects: F700 Ocean Sciences; F800 Physical and Terrestrial Geographical and Environmental Sciences; Thwaites Glacier; West Antarctica; Antarc*; Antarctica; Ice Shelf
• Online Access: https://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/47516/; https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093102; https://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/47516/1/2021GL093102.pdf

We run several transient numerical simulations applying these three perturbations individually. Our results show that ocean-induced ice-shelf thinning generates most of the observed grounding line retreat, inland speed-up, and mass loss, in agreement with previous work. We improve the agreement with observed inland speed-up and thinning by prescribing changes in ice-shelf geometry and a reduction in basal traction over areas that became ungrounded since 1995, suggesting that shelf breakups and thinning-induced reduction in basal traction play a critical role on Thwaites's dynamics, as pointed out by previous studies. These findings suggest that modeling Thwaites's future requires reliable ocean-induced melt estimates in models that respond accurately to downstream perturbations.