Simulating the Evolution of Qiangtang No. 1 Glacier in the Central Tibetan Plateau to 2050
Few simulations of typical Tibetan Plateau glacier response to climate warming have been made, despite the glaciers' importance as water supplies in an arid region. Here we apply a three-dimensional thermomechanically coupled full-Stokes ice dynamics model to simulate the evolution of Qingtang...
Published in: | Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
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Online Access: | https://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/47297/ https://doi.org/10.1657/AAAR0016-008 https://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/47297/1/Simulating%20the%20Evolution%20of%20Qiangtang%20No%201%20Glacier%20in%20the%20Central%20Tibetan%20Plateau%20to%202050.pdf |
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ftunivnorthumb:oai:nrl.northumbria.ac.uk:47297 2023-05-15T14:26:55+02:00 Simulating the Evolution of Qiangtang No. 1 Glacier in the Central Tibetan Plateau to 2050 Li, Yemeng Tian, Lide Yi, Yang Moore, John C. Sun, Sainan Zhao, Liyun 2017-02-01 text https://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/47297/ https://doi.org/10.1657/AAAR0016-008 https://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/47297/1/Simulating%20the%20Evolution%20of%20Qiangtang%20No%201%20Glacier%20in%20the%20Central%20Tibetan%20Plateau%20to%202050.pdf en eng INSTAAR https://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/47297/1/Simulating%20the%20Evolution%20of%20Qiangtang%20No%201%20Glacier%20in%20the%20Central%20Tibetan%20Plateau%20to%202050.pdf Li, Yemeng, Tian, Lide, Yi, Yang, Moore, John C., Sun, Sainan and Zhao, Liyun (2017) Simulating the Evolution of Qiangtang No. 1 Glacier in the Central Tibetan Plateau to 2050. Arctic and Alpine Research, 49 (1). pp. 1-12. ISSN 1523-0430 cc_by_4_0 CC-BY F700 Ocean Sciences F800 Physical and Terrestrial Geographical and Environmental Sciences F900 Others in Physical Sciences Article PeerReviewed 2017 ftunivnorthumb https://doi.org/10.1657/AAAR0016-008 2022-09-25T06:14:31Z Few simulations of typical Tibetan Plateau glacier response to climate warming have been made, despite the glaciers' importance as water supplies in an arid region. Here we apply a three-dimensional thermomechanically coupled full-Stokes ice dynamics model to simulate the evolution of Qingtang No. 1 Glacier, a representative glacier in the central Tibetan Plateau. A degree-day model along with snow temperature and precipitation estimates based on nearby observations are used to estimate surface mass balance (SMB) over the past three decades. The resulting SMB gradients and equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) sensitivity to air temperature are used to parameterize the SMB in the future. We use the ice-flow model to simulate glacier evolution from 2013 to 2050. Simulated within-glacier temperatures and present-day glacier terminus retreat rates are in reasonable agreement with previous observations. Forcing the glacier model with the historical warming trend of 0.035 °C a-1 and a warming projection from the high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) under the A1B scenario for the period 2013-2050 leads to substantial retreat and ice loss, and large increases (110%-155%) in annual water runoff. Losses of 11%-18% in area and 19%-30% in volume are predicted over the next four decades, with the warmer RegCM3 scenario giving larger rates of loss. Sensitivity of glacier change to the parameters in SMB profiles are also assessed. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic and Alpine Research Northumbria University, Newcastle: Northumbria Research Link (NRL) Ela ENVELOPE(9.642,9.642,63.170,63.170) Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research 49 1 1 12 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Northumbria University, Newcastle: Northumbria Research Link (NRL) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivnorthumb |
language |
English |
topic |
F700 Ocean Sciences F800 Physical and Terrestrial Geographical and Environmental Sciences F900 Others in Physical Sciences |
spellingShingle |
F700 Ocean Sciences F800 Physical and Terrestrial Geographical and Environmental Sciences F900 Others in Physical Sciences Li, Yemeng Tian, Lide Yi, Yang Moore, John C. Sun, Sainan Zhao, Liyun Simulating the Evolution of Qiangtang No. 1 Glacier in the Central Tibetan Plateau to 2050 |
topic_facet |
F700 Ocean Sciences F800 Physical and Terrestrial Geographical and Environmental Sciences F900 Others in Physical Sciences |
description |
Few simulations of typical Tibetan Plateau glacier response to climate warming have been made, despite the glaciers' importance as water supplies in an arid region. Here we apply a three-dimensional thermomechanically coupled full-Stokes ice dynamics model to simulate the evolution of Qingtang No. 1 Glacier, a representative glacier in the central Tibetan Plateau. A degree-day model along with snow temperature and precipitation estimates based on nearby observations are used to estimate surface mass balance (SMB) over the past three decades. The resulting SMB gradients and equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) sensitivity to air temperature are used to parameterize the SMB in the future. We use the ice-flow model to simulate glacier evolution from 2013 to 2050. Simulated within-glacier temperatures and present-day glacier terminus retreat rates are in reasonable agreement with previous observations. Forcing the glacier model with the historical warming trend of 0.035 °C a-1 and a warming projection from the high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) under the A1B scenario for the period 2013-2050 leads to substantial retreat and ice loss, and large increases (110%-155%) in annual water runoff. Losses of 11%-18% in area and 19%-30% in volume are predicted over the next four decades, with the warmer RegCM3 scenario giving larger rates of loss. Sensitivity of glacier change to the parameters in SMB profiles are also assessed. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Li, Yemeng Tian, Lide Yi, Yang Moore, John C. Sun, Sainan Zhao, Liyun |
author_facet |
Li, Yemeng Tian, Lide Yi, Yang Moore, John C. Sun, Sainan Zhao, Liyun |
author_sort |
Li, Yemeng |
title |
Simulating the Evolution of Qiangtang No. 1 Glacier in the Central Tibetan Plateau to 2050 |
title_short |
Simulating the Evolution of Qiangtang No. 1 Glacier in the Central Tibetan Plateau to 2050 |
title_full |
Simulating the Evolution of Qiangtang No. 1 Glacier in the Central Tibetan Plateau to 2050 |
title_fullStr |
Simulating the Evolution of Qiangtang No. 1 Glacier in the Central Tibetan Plateau to 2050 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Simulating the Evolution of Qiangtang No. 1 Glacier in the Central Tibetan Plateau to 2050 |
title_sort |
simulating the evolution of qiangtang no. 1 glacier in the central tibetan plateau to 2050 |
publisher |
INSTAAR |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/47297/ https://doi.org/10.1657/AAAR0016-008 https://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/47297/1/Simulating%20the%20Evolution%20of%20Qiangtang%20No%201%20Glacier%20in%20the%20Central%20Tibetan%20Plateau%20to%202050.pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(9.642,9.642,63.170,63.170) |
geographic |
Ela |
geographic_facet |
Ela |
genre |
Arctic Arctic and Alpine Research |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic and Alpine Research |
op_relation |
https://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/47297/1/Simulating%20the%20Evolution%20of%20Qiangtang%20No%201%20Glacier%20in%20the%20Central%20Tibetan%20Plateau%20to%202050.pdf Li, Yemeng, Tian, Lide, Yi, Yang, Moore, John C., Sun, Sainan and Zhao, Liyun (2017) Simulating the Evolution of Qiangtang No. 1 Glacier in the Central Tibetan Plateau to 2050. Arctic and Alpine Research, 49 (1). pp. 1-12. ISSN 1523-0430 |
op_rights |
cc_by_4_0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1657/AAAR0016-008 |
container_title |
Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research |
container_volume |
49 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
1 |
op_container_end_page |
12 |
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1766300394634346496 |