Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets
Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater futu...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
American Geophysical Union
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/47213/ https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 https://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/47213/1/2020GL091741.pdf |
id |
ftunivnorthumb:oai:nrl.northumbria.ac.uk:47213 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Northumbria University, Newcastle: Northumbria Research Link (NRL) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivnorthumb |
language |
English |
topic |
F700 Ocean Sciences F800 Physical and Terrestrial Geographical and Environmental Sciences |
spellingShingle |
F700 Ocean Sciences F800 Physical and Terrestrial Geographical and Environmental Sciences Payne, Antony J. Nowicki, Sophie Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Asay‐Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Edwards, Tamsin L. Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K. Goelzer, Heiko Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Gregory, Jonathan M. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kleiner, Thomas Munneke, Peter Kuipers Larour, Eric Le clec'h, Sebastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter Lipscomb, William H. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Morlighem, Mathieu Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Rückamp, Martin Schlegel, Nicole‐Jeanne Seroussi, Hélène Shepherd, Andrew Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets |
topic_facet |
F700 Ocean Sciences F800 Physical and Terrestrial Geographical and Environmental Sciences |
description |
Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Payne, Antony J. Nowicki, Sophie Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Asay‐Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Edwards, Tamsin L. Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K. Goelzer, Heiko Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Gregory, Jonathan M. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kleiner, Thomas Munneke, Peter Kuipers Larour, Eric Le clec'h, Sebastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter Lipscomb, William H. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Morlighem, Mathieu Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Rückamp, Martin Schlegel, Nicole‐Jeanne Seroussi, Hélène Shepherd, Andrew |
author_facet |
Payne, Antony J. Nowicki, Sophie Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Asay‐Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Edwards, Tamsin L. Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K. Goelzer, Heiko Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Gregory, Jonathan M. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kleiner, Thomas Munneke, Peter Kuipers Larour, Eric Le clec'h, Sebastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter Lipscomb, William H. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Morlighem, Mathieu Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Rückamp, Martin Schlegel, Nicole‐Jeanne Seroussi, Hélène Shepherd, Andrew |
author_sort |
Payne, Antony J. |
title |
Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets |
title_short |
Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets |
title_full |
Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets |
title_fullStr |
Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets |
title_sort |
future sea level change under coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 and phase 6 scenarios from the greenland and antarctic ice sheets |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/47213/ https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 https://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/47213/1/2020GL091741.pdf |
geographic |
Antarctic Greenland The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Greenland The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
https://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/47213/1/2020GL091741.pdf Payne, Antony J., Nowicki, Sophie, Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako, Agosta, Cécile, Alexander, Patrick, Albrecht, Torsten, Asay‐Davis, Xylar, Aschwanden, Andy, Barthel, Alice, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., Calov, Reinhard, Chambers, Christopher, Choi, Youngmin, Cullather, Richard, Cuzzone, Joshua, Dumas, Christophe, Edwards, Tamsin L., Felikson, Denis, Fettweis, Xavier, Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K., Goelzer, Heiko, Gladstone, Rupert, Golledge, Nicholas R., Gregory, Jonathan M., Greve, Ralf, Hattermann, Tore, Hoffman, Matthew J., Humbert, Angelika, Huybrechts, Philippe, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Kleiner, Thomas, Munneke, Peter Kuipers, Larour, Eric, Le clec'h, Sebastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter, Lipscomb, William H., Little, Christopher M., Lowry, Daniel P., Morlighem, Mathieu, Nias, Isabel, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F., Quiquet, Aurélien, Reese, Ronja, Rückamp, Martin, Schlegel, Nicole‐Jeanne, Seroussi, Hélène, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Slater, Donald, Smith, Robin S., Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Tarasov, Lev, Trusel, Luke D., Van Breedam, Jonas, Wal, Roderik, Broeke, Michiel, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zhao, Chen, Zhang, Tong and Zwinger, Thomas (2021) Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Geophysical Research Letters, 48 (16). e2020GL091741. ISSN 0094-8276 |
op_rights |
cc_by_4_0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
48 |
container_issue |
16 |
_version_ |
1766207884649037824 |
spelling |
ftunivnorthumb:oai:nrl.northumbria.ac.uk:47213 2023-05-15T13:44:52+02:00 Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets Payne, Antony J. Nowicki, Sophie Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako Agosta, Cécile Alexander, Patrick Albrecht, Torsten Asay‐Davis, Xylar Aschwanden, Andy Barthel, Alice Bracegirdle, Thomas J. Calov, Reinhard Chambers, Christopher Choi, Youngmin Cullather, Richard Cuzzone, Joshua Dumas, Christophe Edwards, Tamsin L. Felikson, Denis Fettweis, Xavier Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K. Goelzer, Heiko Gladstone, Rupert Golledge, Nicholas R. Gregory, Jonathan M. Greve, Ralf Hattermann, Tore Hoffman, Matthew J. Humbert, Angelika Huybrechts, Philippe Jourdain, Nicolas C. Kleiner, Thomas Munneke, Peter Kuipers Larour, Eric Le clec'h, Sebastien Lee, Victoria Leguy, Gunter Lipscomb, William H. Little, Christopher M. Lowry, Daniel P. Morlighem, Mathieu Nias, Isabel Pattyn, Frank Pelle, Tyler Price, Stephen F. Quiquet, Aurélien Reese, Ronja Rückamp, Martin Schlegel, Nicole‐Jeanne Seroussi, Hélène Shepherd, Andrew 2021-08-28 text https://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/47213/ https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 https://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/47213/1/2020GL091741.pdf en eng American Geophysical Union https://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/47213/1/2020GL091741.pdf Payne, Antony J., Nowicki, Sophie, Abe‐Ouchi, Ayako, Agosta, Cécile, Alexander, Patrick, Albrecht, Torsten, Asay‐Davis, Xylar, Aschwanden, Andy, Barthel, Alice, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., Calov, Reinhard, Chambers, Christopher, Choi, Youngmin, Cullather, Richard, Cuzzone, Joshua, Dumas, Christophe, Edwards, Tamsin L., Felikson, Denis, Fettweis, Xavier, Galton‐Fenzi, Benjamin K., Goelzer, Heiko, Gladstone, Rupert, Golledge, Nicholas R., Gregory, Jonathan M., Greve, Ralf, Hattermann, Tore, Hoffman, Matthew J., Humbert, Angelika, Huybrechts, Philippe, Jourdain, Nicolas C., Kleiner, Thomas, Munneke, Peter Kuipers, Larour, Eric, Le clec'h, Sebastien, Lee, Victoria, Leguy, Gunter, Lipscomb, William H., Little, Christopher M., Lowry, Daniel P., Morlighem, Mathieu, Nias, Isabel, Pattyn, Frank, Pelle, Tyler, Price, Stephen F., Quiquet, Aurélien, Reese, Ronja, Rückamp, Martin, Schlegel, Nicole‐Jeanne, Seroussi, Hélène, Shepherd, Andrew, Simon, Erika, Slater, Donald, Smith, Robin S., Straneo, Fiammetta, Sun, Sainan, Tarasov, Lev, Trusel, Luke D., Van Breedam, Jonas, Wal, Roderik, Broeke, Michiel, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zhao, Chen, Zhang, Tong and Zwinger, Thomas (2021) Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Geophysical Research Letters, 48 (16). e2020GL091741. ISSN 0094-8276 cc_by_4_0 CC-BY F700 Ocean Sciences F800 Physical and Terrestrial Geographical and Environmental Sciences Article PeerReviewed 2021 ftunivnorthumb https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741 2022-09-25T06:14:28Z Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet Northumbria University, Newcastle: Northumbria Research Link (NRL) Antarctic Greenland The Antarctic Geophysical Research Letters 48 16 |