The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica
Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is the main source of uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise, with important implications for coastal regions worldwide. Central to ongoing and future changes is the marine ice sheet instability: once a critical threshold, or tipping point, is cros...
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Online Access: | https://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/45785/ https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021 https://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/45785/1/tc-15-1501-2021.pdf |
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ftunivnorthumb:oai:nrl.northumbria.ac.uk:45785 2023-05-15T13:24:07+02:00 The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica Rosier, Sebastian Reese, Ronja Donges, Jonathan F. de Rydt, Jan Gudmundsson, Hilmar Winkelmann, Ricarda 2021-03-25 text https://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/45785/ https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021 https://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/45785/1/tc-15-1501-2021.pdf en eng Coperincus https://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/45785/1/tc-15-1501-2021.pdf Rosier, Sebastian, Reese, Ronja, Donges, Jonathan F., de Rydt, Jan, Gudmundsson, Hilmar and Winkelmann, Ricarda (2021) The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica. The Cryosphere, 15 (3). pp. 1501-1516. ISSN 1994-0424 cc_by_4_0 CC-BY F600 Geology F700 Ocean Sciences F800 Physical and Terrestrial Geographical and Environmental Sciences Article PeerReviewed 2021 ftunivnorthumb https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021 2022-09-25T06:13:36Z Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is the main source of uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise, with important implications for coastal regions worldwide. Central to ongoing and future changes is the marine ice sheet instability: once a critical threshold, or tipping point, is crossed, ice internal dynamics can drive a self-sustaining retreat committing a glacier to irreversible, rapid and substantial ice loss. This process might have already been triggered in the Amundsen Sea region, where Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers dominate the current mass loss from Antarctica, but modelling and observational techniques have not been able to establish this rigorously, leading to divergent views on the future mass loss of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here, we aim at closing this knowledge gap by conducting a systematic investigation of the stability regime of Pine Island Glacier. To this end we show that early warning indicators in model simulations robustly detect the onset of the marine ice sheet instability. We are thereby able to identify three distinct tipping points in response to increases in ocean-induced melt. The third and final event, triggered by an ocean warming of approximately 1.2 ∘C from the steady-state model configuration, leads to a retreat of the entire glacier that could initiate a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Article in Journal/Newspaper Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Pine Island Pine Island Glacier The Cryosphere West Antarctica Northumbria University, Newcastle: Northumbria Research Link (NRL) Amundsen Sea Antarctic Pine Island Glacier ENVELOPE(-101.000,-101.000,-75.000,-75.000) The Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet West Antarctica The Cryosphere 15 3 1501 1516 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Northumbria University, Newcastle: Northumbria Research Link (NRL) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivnorthumb |
language |
English |
topic |
F600 Geology F700 Ocean Sciences F800 Physical and Terrestrial Geographical and Environmental Sciences |
spellingShingle |
F600 Geology F700 Ocean Sciences F800 Physical and Terrestrial Geographical and Environmental Sciences Rosier, Sebastian Reese, Ronja Donges, Jonathan F. de Rydt, Jan Gudmundsson, Hilmar Winkelmann, Ricarda The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica |
topic_facet |
F600 Geology F700 Ocean Sciences F800 Physical and Terrestrial Geographical and Environmental Sciences |
description |
Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is the main source of uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise, with important implications for coastal regions worldwide. Central to ongoing and future changes is the marine ice sheet instability: once a critical threshold, or tipping point, is crossed, ice internal dynamics can drive a self-sustaining retreat committing a glacier to irreversible, rapid and substantial ice loss. This process might have already been triggered in the Amundsen Sea region, where Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers dominate the current mass loss from Antarctica, but modelling and observational techniques have not been able to establish this rigorously, leading to divergent views on the future mass loss of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here, we aim at closing this knowledge gap by conducting a systematic investigation of the stability regime of Pine Island Glacier. To this end we show that early warning indicators in model simulations robustly detect the onset of the marine ice sheet instability. We are thereby able to identify three distinct tipping points in response to increases in ocean-induced melt. The third and final event, triggered by an ocean warming of approximately 1.2 ∘C from the steady-state model configuration, leads to a retreat of the entire glacier that could initiate a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rosier, Sebastian Reese, Ronja Donges, Jonathan F. de Rydt, Jan Gudmundsson, Hilmar Winkelmann, Ricarda |
author_facet |
Rosier, Sebastian Reese, Ronja Donges, Jonathan F. de Rydt, Jan Gudmundsson, Hilmar Winkelmann, Ricarda |
author_sort |
Rosier, Sebastian |
title |
The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica |
title_short |
The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica |
title_full |
The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica |
title_fullStr |
The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica |
title_full_unstemmed |
The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica |
title_sort |
tipping points and early warning indicators for pine island glacier, west antarctica |
publisher |
Coperincus |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/45785/ https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021 https://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/45785/1/tc-15-1501-2021.pdf |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-101.000,-101.000,-75.000,-75.000) |
geographic |
Amundsen Sea Antarctic Pine Island Glacier The Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet West Antarctica |
geographic_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarctic Pine Island Glacier The Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet West Antarctica |
genre |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Pine Island Pine Island Glacier The Cryosphere West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Pine Island Pine Island Glacier The Cryosphere West Antarctica |
op_relation |
https://nrl.northumbria.ac.uk/id/eprint/45785/1/tc-15-1501-2021.pdf Rosier, Sebastian, Reese, Ronja, Donges, Jonathan F., de Rydt, Jan, Gudmundsson, Hilmar and Winkelmann, Ricarda (2021) The tipping points and early warning indicators for Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica. The Cryosphere, 15 (3). pp. 1501-1516. ISSN 1994-0424 |
op_rights |
cc_by_4_0 |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1501-2021 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
1501 |
op_container_end_page |
1516 |
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1766377516803555328 |