COVID-19 - how a pandemic reveals that everything is connected to everything else
The emergence of a coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) with novel characteristics that made it highly infectious and particularly dangerous for an older age group and people with multiple morbidities brought our complex adaptive system (CAS) “society”—the economy, health systems, and individuals—to a virtual s...
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ftunivnewcastnsw:uon:38935 2023-05-15T16:52:50+02:00 COVID-19 - how a pandemic reveals that everything is connected to everything else Sturmberg, Joachim P. Martin, Carmel M. The University of Newcastle. Faculty of Health & Medicine, School of Medicine and Public Health 2020 http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/1431196 eng eng Wiley-Blackwell Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice Vol. 26, Issue 5, p. 1361-1367 10.1111/jep.13419 http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/1431196 uon:38935 ISSN:1356-1294 Covid-19 degree of uncertainty destabilize a system fragility of health journal article 2020 ftunivnewcastnsw 2022-03-14T23:24:59Z The emergence of a coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) with novel characteristics that made it highly infectious and particularly dangerous for an older age group and people with multiple morbidities brought our complex adaptive system (CAS) “society”—the economy, health systems, and individuals—to a virtual standstill. The COVID-19 pandemic—caused by SARS-Co-2—is a typical wicked problem 1 —we did not see it coming, we experience its effects, and it challenges our entrained ways of thinking and acting. In our view, it is a classic example that demonstrates how suddenly changing dynamics can destabilize a system and tip it into an unstable state. COVID-19—rather than something else—turned out to be what we colloquially call the last straw that broke the camel's back or, put in system dynamics terms, what pushed our societal systems over a tipping point. When a system suddenly tips over, the linkages between most of its agents break, and a chaotic situation ensues. Chaotic states entail a high degree of uncertainty, a state in which previously proven interventions no longer maintain the status quo. The uncertainties triggered by COVID-19 have not only shown the fragility of health and national systems but also highlighted the intrinsic and tacit dynamics underpinning them. Most notable are the markedly different responses at the policy and community level. China drastically clamped down on all societal activities and rapidly built large new hospitals to deal with those fallen ill. Iceland rapidly tested every potential case. Sweden implemented limited social distancing measures. Italy hospitalized many mild cases in an environment of limited hospital resources, and the United States, for several weeks, denied that there is a significant problem. Each of these approaches has its own dynamics affecting individuals, communities, health systems, the economy, and the nation as a whole— new patterns emerge that become understandable with increasing knowledge (Figure 1). However, the long-term outcomes and effects on the system as a whole will only become evident over the next months and years. Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland NOVA: The University of Newcastle Research Online (Australia) |
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NOVA: The University of Newcastle Research Online (Australia) |
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English |
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Covid-19 degree of uncertainty destabilize a system fragility of health |
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Covid-19 degree of uncertainty destabilize a system fragility of health Sturmberg, Joachim P. Martin, Carmel M. COVID-19 - how a pandemic reveals that everything is connected to everything else |
topic_facet |
Covid-19 degree of uncertainty destabilize a system fragility of health |
description |
The emergence of a coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) with novel characteristics that made it highly infectious and particularly dangerous for an older age group and people with multiple morbidities brought our complex adaptive system (CAS) “society”—the economy, health systems, and individuals—to a virtual standstill. The COVID-19 pandemic—caused by SARS-Co-2—is a typical wicked problem 1 —we did not see it coming, we experience its effects, and it challenges our entrained ways of thinking and acting. In our view, it is a classic example that demonstrates how suddenly changing dynamics can destabilize a system and tip it into an unstable state. COVID-19—rather than something else—turned out to be what we colloquially call the last straw that broke the camel's back or, put in system dynamics terms, what pushed our societal systems over a tipping point. When a system suddenly tips over, the linkages between most of its agents break, and a chaotic situation ensues. Chaotic states entail a high degree of uncertainty, a state in which previously proven interventions no longer maintain the status quo. The uncertainties triggered by COVID-19 have not only shown the fragility of health and national systems but also highlighted the intrinsic and tacit dynamics underpinning them. Most notable are the markedly different responses at the policy and community level. China drastically clamped down on all societal activities and rapidly built large new hospitals to deal with those fallen ill. Iceland rapidly tested every potential case. Sweden implemented limited social distancing measures. Italy hospitalized many mild cases in an environment of limited hospital resources, and the United States, for several weeks, denied that there is a significant problem. Each of these approaches has its own dynamics affecting individuals, communities, health systems, the economy, and the nation as a whole— new patterns emerge that become understandable with increasing knowledge (Figure 1). However, the long-term outcomes and effects on the system as a whole will only become evident over the next months and years. |
author2 |
The University of Newcastle. Faculty of Health & Medicine, School of Medicine and Public Health |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sturmberg, Joachim P. Martin, Carmel M. |
author_facet |
Sturmberg, Joachim P. Martin, Carmel M. |
author_sort |
Sturmberg, Joachim P. |
title |
COVID-19 - how a pandemic reveals that everything is connected to everything else |
title_short |
COVID-19 - how a pandemic reveals that everything is connected to everything else |
title_full |
COVID-19 - how a pandemic reveals that everything is connected to everything else |
title_fullStr |
COVID-19 - how a pandemic reveals that everything is connected to everything else |
title_full_unstemmed |
COVID-19 - how a pandemic reveals that everything is connected to everything else |
title_sort |
covid-19 - how a pandemic reveals that everything is connected to everything else |
publisher |
Wiley-Blackwell |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/1431196 |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_relation |
Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice Vol. 26, Issue 5, p. 1361-1367 10.1111/jep.13419 http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/1431196 uon:38935 ISSN:1356-1294 |
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1766043264899612672 |