Pan-Antarctic analysis aggregating spatial estimates of Adelie penguin abundance reveals robust dynamics despite stochastic noise
Colonially-breeding seabirds have long served as indicator species for the health of the oceans on which they depend. Abundance and breeding data are repeatedly collected at fixed study sites in the hopes that changes in abundance and productivity may be useful for adaptive management of marine reso...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/11714/5395 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00890-0 |
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ftunivnevadair:oai:scholarworks.unr.edu:11714/5395 2023-05-15T13:04:41+02:00 Pan-Antarctic analysis aggregating spatial estimates of Adelie penguin abundance reveals robust dynamics despite stochastic noise Che-Castaldo, Christian Jenouvrier, Stephanie Youngflesh, Casey Shoemaker, Kevin T. Humphries, Grant McDowall, Philip Landrum, Laura Holland, Marika M. Li, Yun Ji, Rubao Lynch, Heather J. 2017 PDF http://hdl.handle.net/11714/5395 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00890-0 unknown Che-Castaldo, C., Jenouvrier, S., Youngflesh, C., Shoemaker, K. T., Humphries, G., McDowall, P., … Lynch, H. J. (2017). Pan-Antarctic analysis aggregating spatial estimates of Adélie penguin abundance reveals robust dynamics despite stochastic noise. Nature Communications, 8(1). doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00890-0 2041-1723 http://hdl.handle.net/11714/5395 doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00890-0 Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Authors CC-BY https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00890-0 Article 2017 ftunivnevadair https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00890-0 2020-12-09T10:18:55Z Colonially-breeding seabirds have long served as indicator species for the health of the oceans on which they depend. Abundance and breeding data are repeatedly collected at fixed study sites in the hopes that changes in abundance and productivity may be useful for adaptive management of marine resources, but their suitability for this purpose is often unknown. To address this, we fit a Bayesian population dynamics model that includes process and observation error to all known Adelie penguin abundance data (1982-2015) in the Antarctic, covering >95% of their population globally. We find that process error exceeds observation error in this system, and that continent-wide "year effects" strongly influence population growth rates. Our findings have important implications for the use of Adelie penguins in Southern Ocean feedback management, and suggest that aggregating abundance across space provides the fastest reliable signal of true population change for species whose dynamics are driven by stochastic processes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Adelie penguin Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean University of Nevada, Reno: ScholarWorks Repository Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic Nature Communications 8 1 |
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University of Nevada, Reno: ScholarWorks Repository |
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ftunivnevadair |
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unknown |
description |
Colonially-breeding seabirds have long served as indicator species for the health of the oceans on which they depend. Abundance and breeding data are repeatedly collected at fixed study sites in the hopes that changes in abundance and productivity may be useful for adaptive management of marine resources, but their suitability for this purpose is often unknown. To address this, we fit a Bayesian population dynamics model that includes process and observation error to all known Adelie penguin abundance data (1982-2015) in the Antarctic, covering >95% of their population globally. We find that process error exceeds observation error in this system, and that continent-wide "year effects" strongly influence population growth rates. Our findings have important implications for the use of Adelie penguins in Southern Ocean feedback management, and suggest that aggregating abundance across space provides the fastest reliable signal of true population change for species whose dynamics are driven by stochastic processes. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Che-Castaldo, Christian Jenouvrier, Stephanie Youngflesh, Casey Shoemaker, Kevin T. Humphries, Grant McDowall, Philip Landrum, Laura Holland, Marika M. Li, Yun Ji, Rubao Lynch, Heather J. |
spellingShingle |
Che-Castaldo, Christian Jenouvrier, Stephanie Youngflesh, Casey Shoemaker, Kevin T. Humphries, Grant McDowall, Philip Landrum, Laura Holland, Marika M. Li, Yun Ji, Rubao Lynch, Heather J. Pan-Antarctic analysis aggregating spatial estimates of Adelie penguin abundance reveals robust dynamics despite stochastic noise |
author_facet |
Che-Castaldo, Christian Jenouvrier, Stephanie Youngflesh, Casey Shoemaker, Kevin T. Humphries, Grant McDowall, Philip Landrum, Laura Holland, Marika M. Li, Yun Ji, Rubao Lynch, Heather J. |
author_sort |
Che-Castaldo, Christian |
title |
Pan-Antarctic analysis aggregating spatial estimates of Adelie penguin abundance reveals robust dynamics despite stochastic noise |
title_short |
Pan-Antarctic analysis aggregating spatial estimates of Adelie penguin abundance reveals robust dynamics despite stochastic noise |
title_full |
Pan-Antarctic analysis aggregating spatial estimates of Adelie penguin abundance reveals robust dynamics despite stochastic noise |
title_fullStr |
Pan-Antarctic analysis aggregating spatial estimates of Adelie penguin abundance reveals robust dynamics despite stochastic noise |
title_full_unstemmed |
Pan-Antarctic analysis aggregating spatial estimates of Adelie penguin abundance reveals robust dynamics despite stochastic noise |
title_sort |
pan-antarctic analysis aggregating spatial estimates of adelie penguin abundance reveals robust dynamics despite stochastic noise |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11714/5395 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00890-0 |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
genre |
Adelie penguin Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Adelie penguin Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean |
op_source |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00890-0 |
op_relation |
Che-Castaldo, C., Jenouvrier, S., Youngflesh, C., Shoemaker, K. T., Humphries, G., McDowall, P., … Lynch, H. J. (2017). Pan-Antarctic analysis aggregating spatial estimates of Adélie penguin abundance reveals robust dynamics despite stochastic noise. Nature Communications, 8(1). doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00890-0 2041-1723 http://hdl.handle.net/11714/5395 doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00890-0 |
op_rights |
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Authors |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00890-0 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1766367563106746368 |