Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
Background The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today’s gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of...
Published in: | The Lancet |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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2017
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/11588/733215 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28916366 |
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GBD Sustainable Development Goals |
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GBD Sustainable Development Goals Nancy, Fullman Ryan, M Barber, Amanuel Alemu, Abajobir Kalkidan, Hassen Abate Cristiana, Abbafati Kaja, M Abbas Foad, Abd Allah Abdishakur, M Abdulle, Semaw Ferede, Abera Victor, Aboyans Laith, J Abu Raddad Niveen, M E Abu Rmeileh Isaac, Akinkunmi Adedeji Olatunji, Adetokunboh Ashkan, Afshin Anurag, Agrawal Sutapa, Agrawal Aliasghar, Ahmad Kiadaliri Hamid, Ahmadieh Muktar, Beshir Ahmed, Amani Nidhal, Aichour Ibtihel, Aichour Miloud, Taki Eddine, Aichour Sneha, Aiyar Rufus, Olusola Akinyemi Nadia, Akseer Ziyad, Al Aly Khurshid, Alam Noore, Alam Deena, Alasfoor Kefyalew, Addis Alene Reza, Alizadeh Navaei Ala’a, Alkerwi Francois, Alla Peter, Allebeck Christine, Allen Rajaa, Al Raddadi Ubai, Alsharif Khalid, A Altirkawi Nelson, Alvis Guzman Azmeraw, T Amare Erfan, Amini Walid, Ammar Carl, Abelardo T, Antonio Hossein, Ansari Palwasha, Anwari Megha, Arora Al, Artaman Krishna, Kumar Aryal Hamid, Asayesh Solomon, Weldegebreal Asgedom Reza, Assadi Tesfay, Mehari Atey, Sachin R, Atre Leticia, Avila Burgos Euripide, Frinel G, Arthur Avokpaho Ashish, Awasthi Peter, Azzopardi Umar, Bacha Alaa, Badawi Kalpana, Balakrishnan Marlena, S Bannick Aleksandra, Barac Suzanne, L Barker Collo Till, Barnighausen Lope, H Barrero Sanjay, Basu Katherine, E Battle, Bernhard T, Baune Justin, Beardsley Neeraj, Bedi Yannick, Bejot Michelle, L Bell, Derrick A, Bennett James, R Bennett, Isabela M, Bensenor Adugnaw, Berhane Derbew, Fikadu Berhe Eduardo, Bernabe Balem, Demtsu Betsu Mircea, Beuran Addisu, Shunu Beyene Anil, Bhansali Samir, Bhatt Zulfiqar, A Bhutta Boris, Bikbov Arebu, I Bilal Charles, Birungi Stan, Biryukov Habtamu, Mellie Bizuayehu, Christopher D, Blosser Dube, Jara Boneya Dipan, Bose Ibrahim, R Bou Orm Michael, Brauer Nicholas, J K, Breitborde Traolach, S Brugha, Lemma Negesa, Bulto Bulto, Zahid A, Butt Lucero, Cahuana Hurtado Ewan, Cameron Julio, Cesar Campuzano Rosario, Cardenas Juan, Jesus Carrero Austin, Carter Daniel, C Casey, Carlos A Castaneda Orjuela Jacqueline, Castillo Rivas, Ruben Estanislao, Castro Ferran, Catala Lopez Kelly, Cercy Hsing Yi, Chang Jung Chen, Chang Fiona, J Charlson Adrienne, Chew Vesper, Hichilombwe Chisumpa, Abdulaal A, Chitheer Hanne, Christensen Devasahayam, Jesudas Christopher CIRILLO, Massimo Cyrus, Cooper et, a.l. Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 |
topic_facet |
GBD Sustainable Development Goals |
description |
Background The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today’s gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Methods We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9–66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6–88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1–87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8–87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6–11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8–13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5–13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable ... |
author2 |
Nancy, Fullman Ryan, M Barber, Amanuel Alemu, Abajobir Kalkidan, Hassen Abate, Cristiana, Abbafati Kaja, M Abbas, Foad, Abd Allah Abdishakur, M Abdulle, Semaw Ferede, Abera Victor, Aboyan Laith, J Abu, Raddad Niveen, M E, Abu, Rmeileh Isaac, Akinkunmi Adedeji, Olatunji, Adetokunboh Ashkan, Afshin Anurag, Agrawal Sutapa, Agrawal Aliasghar, Ahmad Kiadaliri, Hamid, Ahmadieh Muktar, Beshir Ahmed, Amani Nidhal, Aichour Ibtihel, Aichour Miloud, Taki Eddine, Aichour Sneha, Aiyar Rufus, Olusola Akinyemi, Nadia, Akseer Ziyad, Al Aly Khurshid, Alam Noore, Alam Deena, Alasfoor Kefyalew, Addi Alene, Reza, Alizadeh Navaei Ala’A, Alkerwi Francois, Alla Peter, Allebeck Christine, Allen Rajaa, Al Raddadi |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Nancy, Fullman Ryan, M Barber, Amanuel Alemu, Abajobir Kalkidan, Hassen Abate Cristiana, Abbafati Kaja, M Abbas Foad, Abd Allah Abdishakur, M Abdulle, Semaw Ferede, Abera Victor, Aboyans Laith, J Abu Raddad Niveen, M E Abu Rmeileh Isaac, Akinkunmi Adedeji Olatunji, Adetokunboh Ashkan, Afshin Anurag, Agrawal Sutapa, Agrawal Aliasghar, Ahmad Kiadaliri Hamid, Ahmadieh Muktar, Beshir Ahmed, Amani Nidhal, Aichour Ibtihel, Aichour Miloud, Taki Eddine, Aichour Sneha, Aiyar Rufus, Olusola Akinyemi Nadia, Akseer Ziyad, Al Aly Khurshid, Alam Noore, Alam Deena, Alasfoor Kefyalew, Addis Alene Reza, Alizadeh Navaei Ala’a, Alkerwi Francois, Alla Peter, Allebeck Christine, Allen Rajaa, Al Raddadi Ubai, Alsharif Khalid, A Altirkawi Nelson, Alvis Guzman Azmeraw, T Amare Erfan, Amini Walid, Ammar Carl, Abelardo T, Antonio Hossein, Ansari Palwasha, Anwari Megha, Arora Al, Artaman Krishna, Kumar Aryal Hamid, Asayesh Solomon, Weldegebreal Asgedom Reza, Assadi Tesfay, Mehari Atey, Sachin R, Atre Leticia, Avila Burgos Euripide, Frinel G, Arthur Avokpaho Ashish, Awasthi Peter, Azzopardi Umar, Bacha Alaa, Badawi Kalpana, Balakrishnan Marlena, S Bannick Aleksandra, Barac Suzanne, L Barker Collo Till, Barnighausen Lope, H Barrero Sanjay, Basu Katherine, E Battle, Bernhard T, Baune Justin, Beardsley Neeraj, Bedi Yannick, Bejot Michelle, L Bell, Derrick A, Bennett James, R Bennett, Isabela M, Bensenor Adugnaw, Berhane Derbew, Fikadu Berhe Eduardo, Bernabe Balem, Demtsu Betsu Mircea, Beuran Addisu, Shunu Beyene Anil, Bhansali Samir, Bhatt Zulfiqar, A Bhutta Boris, Bikbov Arebu, I Bilal Charles, Birungi Stan, Biryukov Habtamu, Mellie Bizuayehu, Christopher D, Blosser Dube, Jara Boneya Dipan, Bose Ibrahim, R Bou Orm Michael, Brauer Nicholas, J K, Breitborde Traolach, S Brugha, Lemma Negesa, Bulto Bulto, Zahid A, Butt Lucero, Cahuana Hurtado Ewan, Cameron Julio, Cesar Campuzano Rosario, Cardenas Juan, Jesus Carrero Austin, Carter Daniel, C Casey, Carlos A Castaneda Orjuela Jacqueline, Castillo Rivas, Ruben Estanislao, Castro Ferran, Catala Lopez Kelly, Cercy Hsing Yi, Chang Jung Chen, Chang Fiona, J Charlson Adrienne, Chew Vesper, Hichilombwe Chisumpa, Abdulaal A, Chitheer Hanne, Christensen Devasahayam, Jesudas Christopher CIRILLO, Massimo Cyrus, Cooper et, a.l. |
author_facet |
Nancy, Fullman Ryan, M Barber, Amanuel Alemu, Abajobir Kalkidan, Hassen Abate Cristiana, Abbafati Kaja, M Abbas Foad, Abd Allah Abdishakur, M Abdulle, Semaw Ferede, Abera Victor, Aboyans Laith, J Abu Raddad Niveen, M E Abu Rmeileh Isaac, Akinkunmi Adedeji Olatunji, Adetokunboh Ashkan, Afshin Anurag, Agrawal Sutapa, Agrawal Aliasghar, Ahmad Kiadaliri Hamid, Ahmadieh Muktar, Beshir Ahmed, Amani Nidhal, Aichour Ibtihel, Aichour Miloud, Taki Eddine, Aichour Sneha, Aiyar Rufus, Olusola Akinyemi Nadia, Akseer Ziyad, Al Aly Khurshid, Alam Noore, Alam Deena, Alasfoor Kefyalew, Addis Alene Reza, Alizadeh Navaei Ala’a, Alkerwi Francois, Alla Peter, Allebeck Christine, Allen Rajaa, Al Raddadi Ubai, Alsharif Khalid, A Altirkawi Nelson, Alvis Guzman Azmeraw, T Amare Erfan, Amini Walid, Ammar Carl, Abelardo T, Antonio Hossein, Ansari Palwasha, Anwari Megha, Arora Al, Artaman Krishna, Kumar Aryal Hamid, Asayesh Solomon, Weldegebreal Asgedom Reza, Assadi Tesfay, Mehari Atey, Sachin R, Atre Leticia, Avila Burgos Euripide, Frinel G, Arthur Avokpaho Ashish, Awasthi Peter, Azzopardi Umar, Bacha Alaa, Badawi Kalpana, Balakrishnan Marlena, S Bannick Aleksandra, Barac Suzanne, L Barker Collo Till, Barnighausen Lope, H Barrero Sanjay, Basu Katherine, E Battle, Bernhard T, Baune Justin, Beardsley Neeraj, Bedi Yannick, Bejot Michelle, L Bell, Derrick A, Bennett James, R Bennett, Isabela M, Bensenor Adugnaw, Berhane Derbew, Fikadu Berhe Eduardo, Bernabe Balem, Demtsu Betsu Mircea, Beuran Addisu, Shunu Beyene Anil, Bhansali Samir, Bhatt Zulfiqar, A Bhutta Boris, Bikbov Arebu, I Bilal Charles, Birungi Stan, Biryukov Habtamu, Mellie Bizuayehu, Christopher D, Blosser Dube, Jara Boneya Dipan, Bose Ibrahim, R Bou Orm Michael, Brauer Nicholas, J K, Breitborde Traolach, S Brugha, Lemma Negesa, Bulto Bulto, Zahid A, Butt Lucero, Cahuana Hurtado Ewan, Cameron Julio, Cesar Campuzano Rosario, Cardenas Juan, Jesus Carrero Austin, Carter Daniel, C Casey, Carlos A Castaneda Orjuela Jacqueline, Castillo Rivas, Ruben Estanislao, Castro Ferran, Catala Lopez Kelly, Cercy Hsing Yi, Chang Jung Chen, Chang Fiona, J Charlson Adrienne, Chew Vesper, Hichilombwe Chisumpa, Abdulaal A, Chitheer Hanne, Christensen Devasahayam, Jesudas Christopher CIRILLO, Massimo Cyrus, Cooper et, a.l. |
author_sort |
Nancy, Fullman |
title |
Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 |
title_short |
Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 |
title_full |
Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 |
title_fullStr |
Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 |
title_sort |
measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related sustainable development goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the global burden of disease study 2016 |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11588/733215 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28916366 |
genre |
Iceland |
genre_facet |
Iceland |
op_relation |
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https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X |
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The Lancet |
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ftunivnapoliiris:oai:www.iris.unina.it:11588/733215 2024-06-23T07:54:09+00:00 Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 Nancy, Fullman Ryan, M Barber, Amanuel Alemu, Abajobir Kalkidan, Hassen Abate Cristiana, Abbafati Kaja, M Abbas Foad, Abd Allah Abdishakur, M Abdulle, Semaw Ferede, Abera Victor, Aboyans Laith, J Abu Raddad Niveen, M E Abu Rmeileh Isaac, Akinkunmi Adedeji Olatunji, Adetokunboh Ashkan, Afshin Anurag, Agrawal Sutapa, Agrawal Aliasghar, Ahmad Kiadaliri Hamid, Ahmadieh Muktar, Beshir Ahmed, Amani Nidhal, Aichour Ibtihel, Aichour Miloud, Taki Eddine, Aichour Sneha, Aiyar Rufus, Olusola Akinyemi Nadia, Akseer Ziyad, Al Aly Khurshid, Alam Noore, Alam Deena, Alasfoor Kefyalew, Addis Alene Reza, Alizadeh Navaei Ala’a, Alkerwi Francois, Alla Peter, Allebeck Christine, Allen Rajaa, Al Raddadi Ubai, Alsharif Khalid, A Altirkawi Nelson, Alvis Guzman Azmeraw, T Amare Erfan, Amini Walid, Ammar Carl, Abelardo T, Antonio Hossein, Ansari Palwasha, Anwari Megha, Arora Al, Artaman Krishna, Kumar Aryal Hamid, Asayesh Solomon, Weldegebreal Asgedom Reza, Assadi Tesfay, Mehari Atey, Sachin R, Atre Leticia, Avila Burgos Euripide, Frinel G, Arthur Avokpaho Ashish, Awasthi Peter, Azzopardi Umar, Bacha Alaa, Badawi Kalpana, Balakrishnan Marlena, S Bannick Aleksandra, Barac Suzanne, L Barker Collo Till, Barnighausen Lope, H Barrero Sanjay, Basu Katherine, E Battle, Bernhard T, Baune Justin, Beardsley Neeraj, Bedi Yannick, Bejot Michelle, L Bell, Derrick A, Bennett James, R Bennett, Isabela M, Bensenor Adugnaw, Berhane Derbew, Fikadu Berhe Eduardo, Bernabe Balem, Demtsu Betsu Mircea, Beuran Addisu, Shunu Beyene Anil, Bhansali Samir, Bhatt Zulfiqar, A Bhutta Boris, Bikbov Arebu, I Bilal Charles, Birungi Stan, Biryukov Habtamu, Mellie Bizuayehu, Christopher D, Blosser Dube, Jara Boneya Dipan, Bose Ibrahim, R Bou Orm Michael, Brauer Nicholas, J K, Breitborde Traolach, S Brugha, Lemma Negesa, Bulto Bulto, Zahid A, Butt Lucero, Cahuana Hurtado Ewan, Cameron Julio, Cesar Campuzano Rosario, Cardenas Juan, Jesus Carrero Austin, Carter Daniel, C Casey, Carlos A Castaneda Orjuela Jacqueline, Castillo Rivas, Ruben Estanislao, Castro Ferran, Catala Lopez Kelly, Cercy Hsing Yi, Chang Jung Chen, Chang Fiona, J Charlson Adrienne, Chew Vesper, Hichilombwe Chisumpa, Abdulaal A, Chitheer Hanne, Christensen Devasahayam, Jesudas Christopher CIRILLO, Massimo Cyrus, Cooper et, a.l. Nancy, Fullman Ryan, M Barber, Amanuel Alemu, Abajobir Kalkidan, Hassen Abate, Cristiana, Abbafati Kaja, M Abbas, Foad, Abd Allah Abdishakur, M Abdulle, Semaw Ferede, Abera Victor, Aboyan Laith, J Abu, Raddad Niveen, M E, Abu, Rmeileh Isaac, Akinkunmi Adedeji, Olatunji, Adetokunboh Ashkan, Afshin Anurag, Agrawal Sutapa, Agrawal Aliasghar, Ahmad Kiadaliri, Hamid, Ahmadieh Muktar, Beshir Ahmed, Amani Nidhal, Aichour Ibtihel, Aichour Miloud, Taki Eddine, Aichour Sneha, Aiyar Rufus, Olusola Akinyemi, Nadia, Akseer Ziyad, Al Aly Khurshid, Alam Noore, Alam Deena, Alasfoor Kefyalew, Addi Alene, Reza, Alizadeh Navaei Ala’A, Alkerwi Francois, Alla Peter, Allebeck Christine, Allen Rajaa, Al Raddadi 2017 http://hdl.handle.net/11588/733215 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28916366 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000410630000007 volume:390 firstpage:1423 lastpage:1459 numberofpages:37 journal:THE LANCET http://hdl.handle.net/11588/733215 doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85029166308 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28916366 GBD Sustainable Development Goals info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2017 ftunivnapoliiris https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X 2024-06-10T14:58:51Z Background The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today’s gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Methods We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9–66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6–88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1–87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8–87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6–11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8–13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5–13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Iceland IRIS Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II The Lancet 390 10100 1423 1459 |