The Arctic and Antarctic Sea-Ice Area Index Records versus Measured and Modeled Temperature Data

• Published in: Advances in Meteorology
• Main Authors: SCAFETTA, NICOLA, MAZZARELLA, ADRIANO
• Other Authors: Scafetta, Nicola, Mazzarella, Adriano
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: unknown
• Published: 2015
• Subjects: Arctic; Antarctic; The Antarctic; Antarc*; Climate change; National Snow and Ice Data Center; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/11588/612062; https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/481834; http://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2015/481834/

Here we study the Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice area records provided by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). These records reveal an opposite climatic behavior: since 1978 the Arctic sea-ice area index decreased, that is, the region has warmed, while the Antarctic sea-ice area index increased, that is, the region has cooled. During the last 7 years the Arctic sea-ice area has stabilized while the Antarctic sea-ice area has increased at a rate significantly higher than during the previous decades; that is, the sea-ice area of both regions has experienced a positive acceleration. This result is quite robust because it is confirmed by alternative temperature climate indices of the same regions. We also found that a significant 4-5-year natural oscillation characterizes the climate of these sea-ice polar areas. On the contrary, we found that the CMIP5 general circulation models have predicted significant warming in both polar sea regions and failed to reproduce the strong 4-5-year oscillation. Because the CMIP5 GCM simulations are inconsistent with the observations, we suggest that important natural mechanisms of climate change are missing in the models.